The French vote tomorrow in the first round of presidential elections, which will decide who will lead the European Union's second-largest economy as war rages in Ukraine, on the bloc's doorstep.
Polls show that the current president, Emmanuel Macron, will win a new mandate. However, after a first term marked by social unrest, during which he took steps to liberalize war laws, cut taxes on the rich and corporations and tried to reshape transatlantic relations, the margin of victory is much smaller than when he was elected in 2017 and he faces stiff competition. ultra-rightist Marine Le Pen.
Reuters estimates that even a narrow victory could limit Macron's ability to implement reforms, especially since his Republic on the Move (LaRem) party would not easily win parliamentary elections in June.
Opinion polls show that purchasing power is a top concern among voters amid massive increases in energy prices and rising inflation. Le Pen successfully focused her campaign on that.
The election campaign began in the middle of the war in Ukraine. Russia's invasion sent shockwaves through Europe and beyond, and the winner of the French election will have to deal with the consequences of the war.
After Britain's exit from the EU, France is the main military power of the bloc. Angela Merkel's exit from the political scene in Germany has given Macron a more prominent role in Europe.
Macron entered the race as the favorite, but his lead is shrinking in the polls, while Le Pen continues her upward trend
Macron and Le Pen have very different views on foreign policy and the relationship with Russia, as well as the EU. Macron's victory would mean continuity for France, while Le Pen's triumph would bring about a big change.
Reuters writes that in the final days of the campaign, Macron made a sudden left turn to win over voters who voted for the Socialists and who he fears could stay home tomorrow. The president, who has been winning over center-right voters for the past five years after destroying the Socialist Party and winning most of its supporters in 2017, has suddenly reversed course as polls show a record abstention could help Le Pen win.
Macron yesterday accused his rival of having a brutal racist program aimed at dividing society. Le Pen said she was shocked by the allegations and described the president as aggressive.
Reduced corruption and nepotism
Five years ago, the 39-year-old Macron, the youngest French leader since Napoleon, entered the political scene with the goal of reforming France. So far, he has managed to improve the situation a little, writes the "Financial Times".
He has loosened the labor market, making hiring and firing easier, which has helped reduce unemployment from 10 percent to 7,4 percent, the lowest level since 2008. The FT points out that Macron's "moralization of politics" law has reduced corruption and that, among other things, prevented politicians from hiring relatives or spending government money as they wished.
However, hardly anyone talks about his reforms in France, writes the FT, noting that from the "yellow vest" uprising in 2018 to today's cost-of-living shock, Macron has been a crisis manager.
Macron yesterday accused his rival of having a brutal racist program aimed at dividing society
Managing Covid-19 seemed impossible in France, the most vaccine-skeptic of 140 countries in a 2018 Gallup-Wellcome survey. But Macron took a risk with the introduction of the "sanitary pass", which made vaccination mandatory to enter restaurants, trains and many public spaces. That strategy worked and France's vaccination rate of 78 percent exceeds Germany's and Britain's.
“Like him or not, he is a serious leader. His predecessors wasted their time on the wrong things: Nicolas Sarkozy attacked the burqa, worn by 0,04 percent of French Muslims, and Francois Hollande promised a 75 percent tax (soon to be declared unconstitutional) for the small number of French people earning more than a million euros. ,” writes FT columnist Simon Cooper.
As a flaw of the French leader, he points out that "he believes he has the superpower to flatter older men, which he tried unsuccessfully with Trump and now with Putin." He adds that Macron's vision of Europe - a more equal distribution of spending across the EU and greater military autonomy for the continent - has long seemed like a fantasy, but that the pandemic and war are now creating Macron's Europe.
For his second term, he set the goal of raising the pension limit from 62 to 65 years, because the expected life expectancy of the French is 82 years and the state spends too much on pensions.
"A haughty little ex-banker, the smartest student in the class, inevitably arouses hatred. Voters suspect that he looks down on them. Marine Le Pen could still beat him, even though she proudly shook Putin's hand on the campaign leaflets (which were quickly torn up), says Cooper.
Radical only in language
The FT writes that a third of voters who will support the ultra-right tomorrow reject color-blind republicanism. They despise multicultural France, fantasize about a religious civil war and want to deport immigrants, especially Muslims. Years of terrorist attacks have left a nation with post-traumatic stress disorder. Macron has rarely spoken in favor of a mixed France, while there is no shortage of revolutionary rhetoric on the left. Ultra-leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon supports Cuba, Venezuela and, until February, Russia - but not NATO.
However, Cooper says the waning of anti-vaccination shows that most French people are speaking more radically than they think.
"The lost French empire, its revolutionary past and the motto liberté, égalité, fraternité on every public building, encourage utopian and grandiose rhetoric. Everyday reality inevitably disappoints".
And in the quiet town of Spezet in the west of France, which Macron visited at the end of the campaign, divisions and discontent are visible that have given hope to Macron's ultra-right and hard-left rivals to undermine his chances for re-election.
Macron's vision of the continent has long seemed like a fantasy, but pandemic and war are now creating Macron's Europe
"He is a globalist," Anne-Marie Carleau said disdainfully as Macron spoke to several hundred supporters about the importance of the EU. The favorite of this retired teacher is Erik Zemur, an opponent of immigration who believes that France could be overrun by Muslims from North Africa.
While supporters of the president shouted "Five more years!" on the square in Spezet, his opponents called for his resignation. Nearby, a small group of protesters from the Anarchist Federation, which rejects capitalism and the very idea of the state, also tried to get a word in.
The scenes from the small town in Brittany unite both the anger towards Macron that is emitted from the extremes and the disappointment in the political system that gave Le Pen a chance to win the presidential mandate.
The FT estimates that such an outcome would not only shake French, but also European politics, imitating the triumphs of the anti-establishment during the Brexit vote that took the United Kingdom out of the EU and the election of Donald Trump as US president.
Defiance of institutions
The public's fatigue with conventional politics is also reflected in the fact that in a country where presidential elections have not been missed for a long time, it is predicted that abstention will reach a record 30 percent tomorrow. That would surpass 2002, when low turnout helped Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, unexpectedly enter the second round with less than 17 percent of the vote. In the second round, he was defeated by Jacques Chirac.
In Douai, a once wealthy city in the former textile and mining belt of northern France, a third of people abstained in a presidential election five years ago, reflecting a trend toward lower turnout in working-class areas.
Before, no one would have dared to say that they would vote for Le Pen... but she is not the same as her father, she does not spread xenophobia
Christine Finet, who works at a hospital for a low salary, joined the ranks of abstainers, and her husband did not even register to vote. The two supported Mélenchon in 2017.
"Politicians no longer have contact with the people, they live in a bubble," said Kristin Finet.
Anne Muxel, a sociologist from the Paris Institute of Political Sciences, says that in France for 20 years there has been a wider phenomenon of growing defiance towards institutions and in the attitude of individuals towards politics.
Patrik Blervak, the owner of a boutique in Duej, says he has not yet decided which right-wing candidate he will support. He says that under no circumstances will he support Macron in the second round and that he could vote for Le Pen, who is trying to "detoxify" the party's image.
"Before, no one would have dared to say that they would vote for Le Pen... but she is not the same as her father, she does not spread xenophobia," Blervak said.
Macron's supporters in Duej say they particularly admire his pro-European stance and handling of the covid crisis. Dissatisfaction is caused by only one topic - Macron's plan to raise the retirement limit to 65 years.
In Spezet in the agricultural region of Brittany, even those sympathetic to Macron made their way through the crowd to tell him they were worried about rising fertilizer and fuel prices, and the low price supermarkets were paying dairy farmers. Rising fuel prices sparked anti-government protests in 2018.
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