Nearly eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, as military casualties mount and Russia faces international isolation, a small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are questioning his decision to go to war, Bloomberg reports.
Those critics, who cover high positions in government and in state-controlled companies, believe that the invasion is a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back years, writes "Bloomberg", citing ten people directly familiar with the situation. All spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing retribution if they comment publicly.
For now, those people see no chance that the president will change course, nor the prospect of anyone standing up to him at home. They say Putin, increasingly dependent on an ever-shrinking circle of hardline allies, has brushed aside attempts by other officials to warn him of the devastating economic and political cost.
Some said they increasingly shared the fear expressed by US intelligence officials that Putin could turn to limited use of nuclear weapons if he faces a setback in what he sees as a historic campaign.
"Bloomberg" states that support for Putin's war is still strong among most of the Russian elite and that many insiders publicly and privately accept the Kremlin's narrative that conflict with the West is inevitable and that the economy will adapt to the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. And public support is still strong as the initial shock and disruption caused by sanctions has turned into a kind of surreal stability in Russia.
However, more and more top insiders realize that Putin's determination to continue the invasion will condemn Russia to years of isolation and heightened tensions, which will paralyze its economy, compromise its security and destroy its global influence, the US agency writes. A few tycoons have indirectly questioned the Kremlin's strategy, but many power players are too afraid of an even stronger showdown with dissenters to voice their concerns publicly.
Skeptics were surprised by the speed and scope of the response of the US and its allies - sanctions that froze half of the 640 billion dollars of central bank reserves and the decision of foreign companies to shut down operations almost overnight and renounce decades of investments, as well as increasing military support for Ukraine.
More and more insiders are realizing that Putin's determination to continue the invasion will condemn Russia to years of isolation and heightened tensions, which will paralyze its economy, compromise its security and destroy its global influence.
Senior officials have tried to explain to the president that the economic impact of the sanctions will be devastating, wiping out two decades of growth and improved living standards achieved during Putin's reign, according to people familiar with the situation. They said Putin dismissed those warnings, saying that Russia would pay a high price, but that the West had left him no alternative but to go to war. Putin publicly said that the "economic blitzkrieg" had failed and that the economy would adjust.
The president reportedly remains confident that the public is with him and that Russians are willing to endure years of sacrifice for his vision of national greatness. With the help of strict capital controls, the ruble has largely recovered, and despite rising inflation, economic disruptions are relatively limited so far, Bloomberg writes.
In the weeks since the invasion began, Putin's circle of advisers and contacts has narrowed even further from the limited group of hardliners with whom he previously regularly consulted, according to the two people. The decision to invade was made by Putin and only a handful of hawks, including Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov and Secretary of Russia's National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, the people said.
Many power players are too afraid of an even stronger crackdown on dissenters to voice their concerns publicly
Critics see no sign yet that Putin is willing to consider ending the invasion given the losses or make the serious concessions needed to achieve a cease-fire. Given his complete dominance over the political system, alternative views are expressed only in private.
Roman Abramovich, the billionaire who helped broker the so-far failed peace talks, had to convince Putin that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would flee the country when the invasion began, people familiar with the talks said.
Frustrations are growing in the Federal Security Service over the failure of the invasion, according to Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russian security services.
Only one senior official has so far publicly broken with the Kremlin over the invasion - Anatoly Chubais, the unpopular architect of 1990s privatizations and the Kremlin's climate envoy. He left the country.
Others who wanted to quit - including central bank chief Elvira Nabiulina - were told they had to stay to help manage the economic fallout, people familiar with the situation said. Some lower-profile officials asked to be transferred to jobs unrelated to policymaking.
Senior officials condemned those who left the country as "traitors".
Among the business tycoons, many of whom have had their yachts and other property seized under sanctions imposed by the US and its allies, a few criticized the war, although they did not mention Putin.
"Putin built his regime mainly on encouraging public support, which provided him with the means to control the elite," believes Tatjana Stanovaja from the political analysis firm R.Politik.
"There is no room for disagreement or debate, everyone must agree and implement the president's orders and as long as Putin keeps the situation under control, people will follow him."
After prominent businessman Oleg Tinkov criticized the war, Russian lawmakers proposed that he be charged with discrediting the Russian armed forces.
"I don't see a single benefit from this crazy war!" Tinkov announced on Instagram on Tuesday.
"Innocent people and soldiers are dying. Waking up with a hangover, the generals realized that their army is crap. How can the army be good if everything else in the country is crap and full of nepotism and servility?"
"The Guardian" writes that on both sides of the divided Russian society, the failure of the first stage of the war increased the stakes of that conflict and turned the Kremlin's "special operation" into an existential one.
"We see that the fate of Putin, Russia and society as a whole is merging into one," says sociologist Greg Yudin. "More and more often I hear that while people think that the war may have been a mistake, that there is no going back, they say that we have to finish the job".
Marina Litvinovich, an opposition activist and politician who remained in Russia, says she sees clear signs of war fatigue among ordinary Russians due to the flood of information from the early days of the invasion, as well as a rise in apathy.
"I see that people are getting used to war. From a kind of nightmare or horror, war has become commonplace for many," she told The Guardian.
A new survey by the independent Levada Center shows that Russian attitudes toward the West in particular became more negative in March, likely due to sanctions and the West's explicit support for Ukraine.
Such thinking is greatly encouraged by the Russian state media, where, as the "Guardian" states, comments that would otherwise be considered extreme and genocidal, including calls for the erasure of Ukrainian culture, are increasingly being heard.
"A lot of people actually believe that. And even if they don't, ordinary Russians don't engage in politics. It's not for us to analyze the decisions made by the bosses," said a senior manager of a state-run news agency.
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