Not a single day passes without one of the high-ranking Western politicians declaring that Ukraine will be "successful" in this war, while Russia will "fail". It certainly boosts morale. But all this is clearly nonsense, former BBC Moscow correspondent Angus Roxburgh writes for the Guardian - in an article in which he emphasizes that further arming Ukraine will only destroy it and that the West must act to end the war immediately.
Whatever grievances Russia may have about NATO expansion or Ukraine's alleged oppression of Russians in the Donbass, no one attacked Russia, nor did they plan to. Vladimir Putin launched a direct war of aggression and conquest, writes Roxburgh.
"It follows that supporting Ukraine is the right thing. But it is not at all clear whether the kind of support we are giving (or not giving) is the right way to preserve the Ukrainian nation, the British journalist pointed out. The longer this war lasts, the more Ukrainians will flee from their country, their homes, cities, industry and economy will be even more devastated," Roxburgh said.
The current approach of the West to support Ukraine's war goal of defeating the aggressor and to provide it with weapons for this purpose, while emphasizing the avoidance of direct military intervention, is guaranteed to prolong the war. Russia's progress may be slowed, but it is unlikely to be stopped. There is even less chance that Russia will be pushed out of Ukraine, and in the meantime the destruction and terrible war crimes will continue, adds Roxburgh.
The fact is, says Roxburgh, that every day more and more cities are destroyed and then fall into the hands of the Russians. In two months, the area under Russian control has grown perhaps fivefold. If Russia continues to suffer "defeats" at this rate, over the next two months the entire south of Ukraine will be in ruins, cities like Odessa will resemble Mariupol, and thousands more Ukrainians will die.
Worse, as the war drags on and more cities are destroyed, it will be less likely that Ukrainians who fled to other countries will ever return, as they will have no homes or jobs to return to. After all, how many citizens of Marijupolje will ever return.
If Russia's goal was to exterminate the Ukrainian nation, then the West's approach is helping to do just that, Roxburgh warns.
"If the lives of the Ukrainian people are our concern, then the West must do something to stop the war – now. Encouraging the Ukrainians to continue the war, however justified their cause, only makes Ukraine an uninhabitable country."
Roxburgh believes that the trouble is that there are only two ways to stop the war quickly, neither of which is acceptable to most Western leaders.
"One would be for NATO to enter the war and launch a swift, massive and decisive attack to 'cripple' Russian forces. Unlike Russian actions, this intervention would have every justification under international law. When Putin intervened in Syria, very carefully presented it as a response to the request of the legitimate and internationally recognized government of Syria. The West could do the same in Ukraine, while Putin has no such justification for his invasion," Roxburgh believes.
The risk involved in this, which is World War III, is obvious and that is why the West refuses to intervene directly.
Another option is to convince Putin to implement an immediate ceasefire, inviting Russia to comprehensive peace talks. Western leaders, as Roxburgh states, are not inclined to negotiate with a 'butcher' like Putin, but they have already done so with Slobodan Milosevic just a few months after the massacre in Srebrenica. The result was the Dayton Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995.
Roxburgh is aware that bringing Putin to the negotiating table would open many discussions - from the borders of Ukraine, as well as other countries from the former Soviet Union, Russia's concern for its security...
"However, the most important thing is to have conversations, not to fight," Roxburgh is clear.
Western leaders have a hard time bringing these things up, because such a thing would seem like a reward for Putin.
They would rather fight - or rather - let Ukraine fight, in the hope of defeating Russia. But one thing is certain - Putin will never accept defeat. He has already invested a lot in this war only to walk away with nothing. If Western leaders think that their encouragement of Ukraine will lead to a Ukrainian military victory, then they are fatally misreading Putin's intentions and resolve, Roxburgh has no doubt.
"For Ukraine's sake, we must stop it now - one way or another, before there is nothing left of the country we want to protect," Roxburgh concluded.
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