The leaders of Germany and Italy, Olaf Scholz and Mario Draghi, are on the front lines of the dramatic European foreign policy changes caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Their economies - the largest and the third largest in the Eurozone are largely dependent on Russian energy. The predecessors of Solac and Draghi cultivated relations with Vladimir Putin as well as economic ties. Breaking those ties will do more damage to them than to any other country in the bloc. However, although the two leaders follow a common path, one is indecisive where the other is categorical. And this will affect the balance of power within the bloc.
Scholz's cautious approach comes across as a reluctance to act. From the suspension of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to the EU embargo on Russian coal and oil, he first resisted before giving in. His multi-pronged $100 billion plan to modernize the German military is overshadowed by hesitation over the more pressing issue of sending heavy weapons to Ukraine. In an interview with Spiegel, he emphasized the risks of nuclear escalation if he did so, only to send anti-aircraft tanks a few days later.
In Rome, Draghi told the Italians that they should choose between "peace" and "air conditioning", and in an interview with "Corriere della Sera" he admitted that he had doubts about the value of cooperation with Putin. He pushed for stronger EU sanctions and proposed capping prices to limit the flow of gas revenue to Moscow. In his address to the European Parliament, he called for the reform of the EU in order to achieve "pragmatic federalism".
"Dragi tries to present a concept of the role the EU should play in the crisis, while Scholz focuses on the mechanics," said Susie Denison of the ECFR in Paris. "Draghi's narrative is about how Ukraine is fighting for democracy and freedom, while Scholz emphasizes the risks," said Jana Puglierini, also from ECFR.
Both leaders lead diverse coalitions, but Draghi is greatly helped by his status abroad and popularity at home. “He's a level above,” notes Denison. With no intention of seeking a second term, this 74-year-old former head of the European Central Bank is a "free man". He is using the prestige he gained a decade ago as the savior of the eurozone to convince voters to take a harder path, said Enrico Letta, a former Italian prime minister and now head of the center-left Democratic Party.
Draghi's narrative is about Ukraine's struggle for democracy and freedom, while Scholz emphasizes the risks
After succeeding longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel last year, Scholz also needs to implement an even bigger change, Denison said. "Italy was one of the more favorable countries to Russia, but Scholz must not only reverse Merkel's years of favoring Putin, but also the long tradition of pacifism."
It should be noted that Draghi's determination did not completely suppress Russophiles and anti-NATO sentiment in Italy. In addition to President Sergio Mattarella and the Democratic Party, "the rest of the Italian political system is much more opposed" to Draghi's pro-EU, Atlanticist views, Leta said.
"For now, Putin is the villain, but if that narrative changes, those parties could cause trouble — and sway a population that remains undecided about how much it is willing to sacrifice to help Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Draghi's ability to turn a position of weakness into strength, and the difficulties that Soltz has in this sense, shifts the dynamics within the European Union.
The South, which is the target of criticism from the North due to its fiscal laxity and the danger it brought the bloc into ten years ago, is defying expectations, said Denison. It points to the ability of southern and peripheral states to receive Ukrainian refugees as well as to demonstrations of solidarity with other member states, such as Greece's offer to help Bulgaria after Moscow suspended gas supplies to that country.
In this crisis, geography favors the South, notes Leta. Proximity to the Mediterranean - once a problem during the Syrian and Libyan refugee crises - now means access to more diverse energy supplies from Algeria and the Middle East.
As Scholz begins to come to his senses, Germany's internal difficulties could threaten the functioning of the EU. "That country is increasingly absent from the debates about the new EU energy model with respect to the climate pipes," Denisonova points out.
"It is quite worrying because European voters need strong leadership and a clear path because sacrifices will be necessary."
Translation: N. Bogetić
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