The war in Ukraine will not end soon: The front is moving towards Donetsk

Military analysts are trying to look into the crystal ball, wondering when and how the war in Ukraine will end. If the announcements of Kiev and Moscow are to be believed, and the estimates that are heard most often - it won't happen very soon.

Russian forces have conquered the entire Luhansk region, and now the front is moving towards Donetsk. That metropolis, the center of the self-proclaimed "people's republic", has been the target of Ukrainian artillery stationed in nearby towns for eight years. The goal of the Russian side is to surround them and leave them in the so-called cauldron.

The success of that Russian venture also depends on how the war will continue, they are convinced in Kiev.

Analysts, on the other hand, are wary of estimates, especially since many have miscalculated by predicting the express fall of Kiev and the defeat of Ukraine at the beginning of the war.

Will there be a war at least until winter?

In mid-June, the American Institute for War Research, citing information from Ukrainian services, announced that Moscow had prepared a plan for the next 120 days of the war - until October.

As the correspondent of the German public service from Moscow notes, since the beginning of the aggression, the Kremlin always gives the same answer to the question of how long the war will continue. "Everything is going according to plan," they say, even when it's obvious that plans are changing.

Recently, President Vladimir Putin said that there is no need to talk about deadlines. Instead, he stated as the "ultimate goal" the "liberation" of Donbass, the protection of the people living there and the guarantees for Russia's security that are required directly from the West and NATO.

On the other hand, conflicting interpretations could recently be heard from Kyiv. During the G7 summit, President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope that the war could end by the end of the year. As he said, for him the end of the war at any cost is out of the question, but he wants to get into a "superior position" on the front from which he would negotiate with Putin.

The head of the military intelligence service, Kirilo Budanov, said that Ukraine intends to recover all territories, including Crimea and Donbas, as early as next year.

Western politicians also expect a longer war

"I think we are still a long way from some kind of frozen conflict," Domitila Sagramoso, an expert on Russian security policy at King's College London, told Deutsche Welle (DW).

"At the moment, there are no negotiations on a ceasefire either. Neither side is ready to give up the territory they lost or won with great efforts," she adds.

American President Joseph Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also spoke about the long war.

The latter wrote in an op-ed for The Times in mid-June that Putin's previous failures to seize Donbas "do not mean he will have the wisdom to withdraw."

"I fear we will have to prepare for a long war as Putin is waging a campaign of extortion, trying to overwhelm Ukraine with sheer brutality," Johnson wrote.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz simply said a few days ago: "We are not in a situation where we see the end (of the war)."

The battle will exhaust both sides

In an analysis published by the German public service ZDF at the beginning of June, it is stated that Putin could be ready for negotiations when he occupies the entire Donbas. It is added that this is Russia's minimum goal, because Moscow has just recognized two self-proclaimed republics as a prelude to war.

"Unfortunately, it seems a little realistic that Ukraine can regain all the territories lost since 2014 - not even those lost since February of this year," says the analysis signed by two researchers of the German Society for Foreign Policy.

"But fortunately, it is equally unrealistic that Russia can completely defeat Ukraine. Without a massive mobilization, Russia does not have enough infantry to continue the current high-intensity fighting after the summer," the analysis states.

"Therefore, after the end of the battle for Donbass, it will be in Moscow's interest to strive for some kind of appeasement. By then, the Ukrainian army will be decimated, the infrastructure will be destroyed, the society will be exhausted, and the economy will be on Western artificial respiration. That will be the moment when it can be achieved ceasefire, which largely relies on the territorial status quo," the researchers said.

However, they add that this does not mean final peace because Ukraine can hardly sign the permanent loss of a large part of the country, even if Russia is willing to leave the southern regions of Ukraine that do not belong to the Donbass.