Vladimir Putin is very polite during his phone conversations with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. People familiar with the calls say his voice is soft and his tone less authoritative than in his public appearances. Putin usually says a few sentences in German as a greeting, before switching to Russian when an interpreter comes in.
Chancellor Scholz has spoken to the Kremlin leader by phone a total of eight times since the Russian attack on Ukraine, sometimes in the presence of French President Emmanuel Macron. The talks are initiated alternately by Putin and Scholz.
The phone calls have followed a pattern since the beginning of the war: Scholz criticizes the brutal actions of Russian troops, calls for an end to the violence and blames Moscow for the global consequences of the war. Putin, in response, justifies the invasion with the story of self-defense and shifts the blame to Kiev.
During the last conversation, in mid-May, Putin uttered a sentence that surprised the chancellor and his advisers. During the 75-minute conversation, Putin said that both sides had made a mistake. Both sides, including Putin? Were those empty words or did the president of Russia really mean it?
Moments like this cement Chancellor Scholz's decision to continue communicating with Putin by phone. Scholz wanted to confront Putin about the consequences his attack on Ukraine has caused around the world and to get an answer to the question of whether Moscow will abandon the idea of a dictatorship, however slim the chances of that. At least that's how many in Berlin describe it.
The issue of talks with Russia is a very sensitive topic in German society. There are many reasons for this, and the war is only one of them. Vladimir Putin continues brutal attacks, while the West supports Kiev with equipment and billions in financial aid. Many in Berlin believe that contacting Moscow at this time is ill-advised.
Are the talks futile?
There are frequent arguments that as long as Putin adheres to imperialist ideas, a conversation with him will not be possible. They claim that the man, who built a war on lies and worked for years to deceive the West, cannot be trusted. In Poland and the Baltic states, Scholz's and Macron's phone conversations are described as futile.
The legacy of German policy towards Russia is of great importance. Many believe that Germany has still not adequately processed the legacy of previous governments that sought to build relations with Moscow. No one wants to be caught trying to open a dialogue with the Putin regime again, because it might look like nothing has been learned from past experiences. Many parties strive for maximum distance from Russia. In the previous days, the German chancellor emphasized that pressure must be exerted on Putin. The message: now is not the time to approach.
Nevertheless, officials in Berlin were thinking about future relations with Russia in the previous period. There are numerous problems that must be discussed in addition to the war in Ukraine, such as wars in which Russia is also the main actor: Syria, Libya, nuclear negotiations with Iran. In addition, one of the issues for discussion is the Russian climate policy, which is unlikely to be discussed while the conflicts with Ukraine continue.
Michael Kremer, the prime minister of Saxony and a member of the conservative Christian Democratic Party (CDU), says the main goal must be to end Russia's "barbaric war of aggression that is contrary to international law." He claims that Germany, like the entire West, needs a long-term strategy for Russia. "The German government must clearly express how it envisions relations with Russia in the future, taking into account the period after Putin's rule."
A recent event highlighted the precariousness of Chancellor Solac's position. In mid-June, his foreign policy adviser, Jens Plotner, appeared at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, where he stated his position on future relations with Russia. Many did not listen to the whole speech, sentences were taken out of context and published on social networks.
"Many newspaper pages can be filled with news about 20 Marder," Plotner said of the possible delivery of German armored vehicles to Ukraine, "but there are far fewer articles about what our relationship with Russia might look like in the future."
Criticism of the adviser to the German chancellor did not come only from the opposition. "This is a continuation of the mistake that Germany is making in restraining the issue of Ukraine, in favor of a positive relationship with Russia," said Norbert Retgen, a foreign policy expert of the Christian Democrats.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmerman, the chairwoman of the parliament's security committee, tweeted that Plotner's statement was "the way of thinking that got us into this terrible situation in previous decades."
On the other hand, some argue that it is in the job description of every diplomat to think about possible scenarios and options for talks. Despite the cruelty of war, it is important to avoid its spread to other countries, as well as humanitarian crises and nuclear escalation.
In relations with Russia, diplomatic activities have quieted down. With the exception of Scholz and Macron, Western politicians do not communicate with Putin. The only reliable line of communication between Washington and Moscow passes through Berlin and Paris.
Diplomats who are still talking to each other are Schulz's adviser Plotner and his Russian counterpart Yuri Ushakov. The Russian ambassador in Berlin does not visit the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the German ambassador in Moscow has not received any invitations for talks from Russian government representatives.
As the war progresses, calls for negotiations are more numerous. "Germany and Europe need a long-term strategic perspective on how to deal with Russia and the Putin regime," says the Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party, Bijan Đir Saraj, whose politics are not normally pro-Russian. He adds that he is not "one of those who say that we should not talk to important figures in the Russian leadership. Even though we don't like the people we talk to, it's important to keep those channels open. We are not neutral - we are on the side of Ukraine".
Outside parliament, in the foreign and security policy communities, the debate progressed. Some openly advocate the idea of direct talks with Russia. "We must seek contact with Moscow, if only to protect our security," said Wolfgang Richter, a retired colonel and researcher at Germany's Institute for International and Security Relations (SWP) in Berlin. He added that the risk of military incidents is "very high" on NATO's borders with Russia and Belarus, and that this "makes communication about security issues with Russia mandatory." He also said that "we must talk in order to maintain military contacts and prevent or de-escalate incidents, this cannot depend on Putin's presence in the leadership."
A retired soldier emphasizes that the independence of Ukraine as a state cannot be questioned. "On the other hand, Ukraine's neutrality with realistic security guarantees could be an option worth considering." Richter adds that "it can be painful, but you have to accept that the other side also has security interests, then you have to see if compromises are possible."
Torsten Benner, director of the Global Institute for Public Policy in Berlin, believes that the situation has reached a critical point. He adds that the talks must "be in accordance with two principles - Ukraine must decide and Germany must not act without an ally", as well as that "the biggest danger is that now we are again devising a plan ourselves, which was already unsuccessful in Minsk, although the intentions are were good".
On stage with Putin?
In June, when the German chancellor received the US president and other representatives of the G7 countries at the Elmau Castle in Bavaria, news broke that Putin had accepted Indonesia's invitation to attend the G20 Summit in Bali in November.
Not everyone at Elmau was sure about attending the G20 Summit and sharing the stage with Putin. According to press reports, Chancellor Scholz and European Council President Ursula von der Leyen particularly insisted on attending.
The President of the European Council stated that it is important to "tell Putin to his face what we think of him". Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi claimed that Indonesian President Joko Widodo does not count on the physical presence of the Russian President, which does not mean that things cannot change by November. "From today's perspective," said Chancellor Scholz at the G7 Summit, "the decision of the states gathered here is to participate." President of Ukraine Zelenskiy previously confirmed his presence at the Summit.
Benner believes that a meeting with Putin would be an opportunity for world leaders. "Putin should be confronted at the G20 Summit," he says. "The war should be discussed, and at the same time convince as many G20 countries as possible to attend. It is not possible to understand our positions if we simply boycott the Summit because Putin is coming."
Preparations for the meeting of the Group of 20 foreign ministers, held at the end of last week, showed the complexity of the situation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov promised the Indonesians in advance that they would participate, after which the G7 countries consulted on how to approach this sensitive meeting.
Some have expressed doubts about whether they will participate at all. Others suggested leaving the meeting room in a demonstration when it was time for Lavrov to speak, which is not uncommon at the United Nations.
The G7 summit is currently taking place in Germany. On the other hand, they emphasized that Lavrov's rhetoric will be answered, due to developing economies. Many countries in Africa, Asia and South America believe Putin's narrative that Western sanctions are to blame for rising food and energy prices.
A decision was made that Lavrov should be opposed. The G7 countries made an agreement with the Indonesians that their member would speak immediately after the Russian foreign minister. It was also agreed that no G7 representative would have to sit next to Lavrov. The idea was to avoid any contact.
When the meeting took place on Friday, Lavrov did not give them a chance to realize their idea. Initially, Analena Berbok was in charge of confronting the Russian Foreign Minister on behalf of the G7. Lavrov left the hall when Berbok began to speak, thus avoiding a conflict.
Later, the German foreign minister said: "The fact that (Lavrov) spent a large part of the negotiations outside the room underlines that there is not the slightest willingness to talk on the part of Russia."
Berbok wants to keep his distance from Russia. She refuses to negotiate with Putin because of Russia's actions in Buca and elsewhere. "It says everything about the fact that you cannot negotiate with Putin now," she said in an interview with SPIEGEL last week. “He does everything in favor of destruction. Even children.”
Translation: M. Corović
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