Satellite images released yesterday showed devastation at a Russian air base in Crimea hit by an attack that suggests Ukraine may have acquired a new long-range weapon that could turn the tide of the war.
Images from the independent satellite company Planet Labs show three almost identical craters where buildings at the Russian Saki base were hit with apparent precision, Reuters reported. The base, located on the south-western coast of Crimea, suffered extensive damage from the fire, and at least eight burnt-out aircraft are clearly visible.
Russia has denied that the aircraft were destroyed and said the explosions at the base on Tuesday were accidental. Ukraine has not publicly claimed responsibility for the attack or said how it was carried out.
The adviser to the Ukrainian president Mihailo Podolyak said that there are "numerous scenarios of what could have happened".
"Officially, we are not confirming or denying anything ... bearing in mind that there were several epicenters of explosions at exactly the same time," he told Reuters.
Western military experts said the extent of the damage and the apparent precision of the attack indicated a powerful new capability with potentially far-reaching consequences.
Russia, which conquered and annexed Crimea in 2014, uses the peninsula as a base for its Black Sea Fleet, and as a main supply route for its forces occupying southern Ukraine, where Kiev is planning a counter-offensive in the coming weeks.
"I'm not an intelligence official, but it doesn't look good," tweeted Mark Hertling, the former commander of US forces in Europe, commenting on footage of the destruction at the Russian base.
"I am. That's very good," retired US four-star general Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA and National Security Agency, replied.
The Institute for the Study of War said that Ukrainian officials are presenting the Crimean attack as "the beginning of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, suggesting that the Ukrainian military expects intense fighting in August and September that could decide the outcome of the next phase of the war."
Reuters writes that how the attack was carried out remains a mystery. Some Ukrainian officials said it might be sabotage. However, the nearly identical craters and simultaneous explosions indicate that it was hit by a barrage of missiles capable of evading Russian defenses.
The base is well beyond the range of the advanced missiles that Western countries admit they have sent to Ukraine so far, though it is within range of the more powerful versions that Kiev has sought. Ukraine also has anti-ship missiles that could theoretically be used to engage targets on land.
"I'm not an intelligence official, but it doesn't look good," tweeted Mark Hertling, the former commander of US forces in Europe. "I did. That's very good," retired US four-star general Michael Hayden replied
Ukrainian General Oleksiy Gromov said that Russia had doubled its airstrikes against Ukrainian targets since last Sunday, but that the intensity of Russian air activity had decreased after the destruction of the Crimean base.
"As a result of certain actions, the intensity of the use of aviation on the southern front has been somewhat reduced," he said at a press conference.
Ukraine pushed Russian forces out of Kiev in March and the suburbs of Kharkiv in May. Russia then gained territory in the east in major fighting in June that killed thousands of soldiers on both sides.
Since then, the situation on the front lines has been largely static, but Kiev says it is preparing a major offensive to retake the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions in the south, the main part of the territory conquered since the beginning of the invasion that is still under Russian control.
Kiev is hoping that the US missile systems it received last month, which can hit logistical targets behind front lines, could tip the balance in its favor. The West has so far delayed sending long-range missiles capable of hitting targets deep inside Russia or Russia's numerous bases in Crimea.
Russia claims that its "special military operation" aimed at protecting the Russian-speaking population and separatists in the south and east is going according to plan. Ukraine and its Western allies claim that Moscow is trying to consolidate control over as much of the territory as possible.
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