Difficult with Turkey, you can't do without it

Few leaders have exploited the current geopolitical tensions as successfully as the Turkish president. Analyst Vuk Vuksanović tells "Vijesti" that Erdogan will certainly try to use the war in Ukraine and the foreign policy benefits that Turkey has achieved to profit on the home ground as well, and that we have seen something like that in Serbia and Hungary.

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Erdogan on the new Turkish ship "Abdulhamid Han" for hydrocarbon research, Photo: Reuters
Erdogan on the new Turkish ship "Abdulhamid Han" for hydrocarbon research, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

The policy of balancing between Russia and the West is risky, but Turkey believes that its price has risen due to the war in Ukraine, and therefore it is not wise for the West or Russia to alienate it, Vuk Vuksanović, senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for security policy and associate of the foreign policy institute IDEAS at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Few leaders have managed to turn current geopolitical tensions to their advantage as effectively as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A series of diplomatic successes was capped by an agreement to resume grain exports from Ukrainian ports, which could ease shortages that have put millions at risk of starvation and pushed up global prices.

The agreement, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, was reached after Erdogan made concessions from NATO on the admission of Sweden and Finland and launched a rapprochement with rival powers in the Middle East. Erdogan also received a promise from US President Joe Biden in June to support the sale of F-16 aircraft to Turkey.

"Turkey is going through its strongest period politically, militarily and diplomatically," he said in an address to thousands of people in northwestern Turkey last weekend, a day after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

From the signing of the agreement on the export of grain from Ukraine
From the signing of the agreement on the export of grain from Ukrainephoto: Reuters

Erdogan and Putin have a complicated relationship with mutual benefits, and the challenges they both face have brought them closer than ever. Turkey needs Russian money, gas and business, and Russia needs friends to try to avoid Western sanctions. After the four-hour meeting in Sochi, Western capitals expressed concern that he was deepening ties with Moscow while his NATO partners were doing the opposite.

When asked how risky Erdogan's double game is, i.e. could his closer cooperation with Russia provoke retaliation from the USA, Vuksanović says:

"A balancing policy always carries potential risks for the country that pursues such a policy. However, at this stage, Ankara believes that its price has risen due to the war in Ukraine, and therefore it is not wise for the West or Russia to alienate Turkey".

Both Vučić and Orban profited from the war in Ukraine

The longest-serving ruler and most dominant political figure since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded modern Turkey nearly a century ago, Erdogan faces parliamentary and presidential elections that must be held by June 2023.

Opponents accuse him of using the global stage to mask economic problems at home. His poor economic management greatly contributed to the worsening of the debt and currency crisis. Inflation reached 79,6 percent in July, the highest level in the last 24 years, and the value of the lira halved against the dollar in 12 months.

Erdogan is probably facing the biggest electoral challenge in his nearly 20-year rule: Istanbul -
Erdogan is probably facing the biggest electoral challenge in his nearly 20-year rule: Istanbul - photo: Reuters

When asked if emphasizing diplomatic triumphs is Erdogan's strategy for the election campaign, Vuksanović says:

"Before the war in Ukraine, things did not look good for Erdogan, if you take into account the economic problems and the covid-19 pandemic. However, Erdogan will certainly try to use the war in Ukraine and the foreign policy benefits that Turkey has achieved to profit on the home ground as well. We saw something like that not far from Turkey, with two leaders who are close to Erdogan and have similarities with him, Vučić (Aleksandar) in Serbia and Orban (Viktor) in Hungary".

Vuksanovic points out that in both countries, the war in Ukraine swallowed up the entire election campaign, allowing Vučić and Orban to profit by presenting themselves to voters as strong, experienced leaders who are the only ones capable of guaranteeing stability at a time of global uncertainty.

"If such a tactic worked for Orban and Vučić, I don't see why it wouldn't work for Erdogan as well."

A survey conducted last Sunday by Metropol showed a slight increase in support for Erdogan's AK Party to 33,8 percent, which is still the highest rating of any single party. However, he is facing an alliance of opposition parties, and polls show that he is lagging behind the opposition's presidential candidates.

It is not known what he promised to Putin

The tension between Erdogan and Putin was primarily caused by different priorities in the conflict in Syria. In the war in Ukraine, Ankara drew the ire of Moscow by providing Bayraktar drones to Kiev's forces. Turkey, however, has not adopted US and EU sanctions against Moscow, is buying Russian oil and gas as usual and has not closed the skies to Russian commercial aircraft because of lucrative Russian tourism.

"Turkey needs a diplomatic partnership with Russia in our neighborhood, given the crisis in areas like Syria or Nagorno-Karabakh, so that it does not have the luxury of isolating Russia," said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul (EDAM ). He points out that Turkey has managed to be pro-Ukrainian without being anti-Russian at the same time.

It is not known what exactly Erdogan and Putin agreed on in Sochi. The joint statement talked about strengthening ties in the field of trade and energy and deepening cooperation in the sectors of transport, industry, finance, construction...

The Turkish leader is trying to preserve significant economic ties with Moscow
The Turkish leader is trying to preserve significant economic ties with Moscowphoto: Reuters

Later, statements from the Turkish president were reported that five Turkish banks would adopt the Russian Mir payment system, a boon for Russian tourists in Turkey as Visa and Mastercard suspended Russian operations. Western countries worry that the Mir link could also be used to evade sanctions, although there is no evidence that Erdogan has accepted alleged Russian proposals for deeper banking and energy cooperation that could help Moscow circumvent Western restrictions.

A senior Western official said that Western countries could invite companies and banks to withdraw from Turkey if Erdogan implements the intentions he signaled in Sochi, the Financial Times reported.

However, Turkey is simply too important geopolitically and for Western companies. Europe fears Turkey's ability to flood the continent with 3,7 million refugees from Syria and other countries it has taken in.

"Turkey is worth more than Sweden and Finland combined"

"Exiting NATO should be put on the agenda as an alternative," recently said Devlet Bahceli, leader of the nationalist party in Erdogan's coalition. "We do not exist thanks to NATO and we will not disappear without NATO".

Turkey is a very complicated ally, but given its strategic importance, the meaningfulness of the comments that can be heard again in the West in Turkey about its separation from NATO is questioned.

"Turkey is making maximum use of the new situation. This was seen in the way it conditioned the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO, and it is not at all excluded that it will not do it again. Formally and legally, it is not possible to exclude a member state from NATO, nor to suspend its membership, but it is possible for other member states to deny aid to a member that is considered disloyal," says Vuk Vuksanović.

Erdogan at the launching ceremony of 'Abdulhamid Khan'
Erdogan at the "Abdulhamid Khan" launching ceremonyphoto: Reuters

He adds that in 2016 and 2019 there was talk of Turkey's exclusion from NATO.

"However, due to its location and the size of its population and army, Turkey is worth more than Sweden and Finland combined. If the West's ties with Turkey were to be severed, as some are advocating, Russia and Iran would be delighted, and in the long run so would China."

Turkey is on the front lines of the war in Syria and close to other conflicts in the Middle East. It controls access to the Black Sea, which has been crucial to all of Russia's recent wars. And it serves as a trade corridor between Central Asia and Europe, especially for energy products.

"I don't even want to think about NATO without Turkey," said Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe.

A headache that NATO will have to live with

Turkey also has no interest in giving up the deterrent power offered by NATO membership, especially in light of the war in Ukraine.

"I don't believe that will ever happen," said Tacan Ildem, Turkey's former permanent representative to NATO. He says there is no credible alternative.

Turkey is likely to continue to be a headache for the Alliance, even after Erdogan steps down. But it's a headache NATO will have to live with.

In a political sense, Turkey is the largest Muslim member of NATO and can be a useful interlocutor with the Arab and Persian world, says Ivo Dalder, former US ambassador to NATO.

"Her diplomacy can be disruptive, but her close ties to so many key players give her political influence, as the recent conclusion of the Ukrainian grain deal highlighted."

Tehran
photo: Reuters

Militarily, Dalder says, Turkey has the second largest military in the alliance, with combat experience against internal enemies and external threats, and hosts US forces and other military capabilities critical to the defense of both NATO and the US.

"Erdogan is keeping all his options open, which countries usually do when they think only of their own interest, which allies don't," says Dalder. "He's figured out a way to play his game, but he's doing it at the expense of an alliance that's critical to his security."

Dalder adds that it is good to have a NATO ally with good lines of communication with Putin "as long as he is saying the right things, trying to solve issues that are in line with the goals of the alliance and not undermining it."

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