The career of Silvio Berlusconi, billionaire, media magnate and three-time prime minister of Italy, has been going on for decades.
However, in recent years its influence has faded. Due to poor health, he often appeared online at party events, and after being convicted of tax evasion, he was banned from holding public office for four years.
Yet now, at the age of 85, when most people of his age would have decided to take a break, the former Italian prime minister has decided to run for office. "That way everyone will be happy," he said confidently to RAI radio.
Unless there is a surprise, the right-wing coalition should win the elections on September 25, and Berlusconi would be the deciding factor, which means he would get an influential position for the next five years.
The return is the result of his sense of "duty", Berlusconi stated for "Politiko" in written answers to questions. Italy, as he pointed out, needs the values that only his party represents to restore the economy.
"My parents taught me that when I strongly feel that it is my duty to do something, then I must find the courage to do it."
Rehabilitated by joining Draghi's coalition
Despite dominating Italian politics and the media for two decades, not so long ago it seemed that a political career was behind Berlusconi.
His reputation was tarnished in the so-called bunga bunga scandals, in which witnesses described orgies in his luxury villa near Milan. Due to the national debt crisis and fears that Italy could go bankrupt, he handed over power to the technocrat Mario Monti in 2011. He faced numerous court actions, before finally being kicked out of the Senate after being convicted of tax evasion in 2013.
However, the unexpected growth of nationalist populism over the past decade has provided an opportunity for Berlusconi to position himself as a responsible pro-EU moderate. He was elected to the European Parliament in 2019, although he rarely attended the vote. Last year, his rehabilitation was completed when he joined a broad coalition led by the former president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi.
"We are pro-European, pro-Western, pro-NATO, with liberal democracy as the only point of reference," Berlusconi told Politico.
Then, last month, apparently sensing a change in the political winds, he joined other coalition partners in withdrawing support for Draghi's government, calling a snap election that the right should win. His three cabinet ministers resigned from the Forza Italia party, saying he was "irresponsible" and putting party interests ahead of the country.
Berlusconi rejects the blame for the downfall of the administration, claiming: "We would prefer Draghi's government to continue until the natural end of the mandate with the 2023 elections... This was not possible due to the irresponsible behavior of the Five Star Movement and the inconsistent maneuvers of the democrats." Therefore, "there was no other solution but to return the voice to the people", he said.
Support for Berlusconi, the junior partner in a right-wing alliance with Giorgio Meloni's right-wing Brothers of Italy and Matteo Salvini's anti-immigrant League, is a far cry from the glory days of 2008, when his party had 37 percent of the vote. According to current Forca polls, around eight percent of voters support Italy. However, together, the right-wing alliance is expected to have around 45 percent of the vote, which should be enough for a majority in the parliament.
However, the right-wing alliance needs to win the support of not only Italian voters, but also international bond traders, credit rating agencies, European governments and institutions who fear that the most right-wing government in Italy's post-war history could pose a risk to democracy and Italian alliances in the EU. and NATO.
Unless international institutions are convinced that indebted Italy will be in safe hands, borrowing costs will soar and the government will have severely limited room for maneuver.
A turnaround for Putin
One of the reasons for these fears are the close relations of some in the alliance with right-wing parties in other countries, such as Vox in Spain, and with authoritarian leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
The Liga signed a cooperation agreement in 2017 with United Russia, a pro-Putin party, and Salvini attempted a peacekeeping mission paid for by the Russian embassy earlier this year. Berlusconi is a long-time friend of Putin, even holidaying at his cottage, and earlier this month he was forced to deny media reports that he had spoken to the Russian ambassador to Rome and sympathized with Russia.
So far, he has practically not criticized Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, in comments for Politiko, Berlusconi unequivocally condemned his former friend: "Today's Russia violated international law by attacking Ukraine and brought a painful war to the heart of Europe."
Looking back on the period when he was prime minister, Berlusconi said that he worked to improve relations between Russia and the West. The NATO-Russia agreement from 2002 in Rome, "could have meant the beginning of an era in which Russia would become a trusted partner and interlocutor". He said that Putin "deeply disappointed" him.
Berlusconi denied that any of the parties in the right-wing alliance were extremist, claiming that it was a center-right coalition and said that it "has nothing to do with extremist movements in other countries."
"We are pro-European, pro-Western, pro-NATO, with liberal democracy as the only point of reference," Berlusconi told Politico. He added that he would not "participate in any government" if he was not completely convinced of its "democratic correctness, sense of responsibility and loyalty to Europe and the West".
According to Berlusconi, the center-left's loyalty is questionable, as their coalition includes far-left parties that voted against Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
Despite his reduced influence, Berlusconi still has the ability to kick up dust. Last Sunday, during a discussion on the proposed reform of the presidential system, he suggested that if the reform were to be adopted, President Sergio Mattarella would have to resign. The comment was seen as an attack on Mattarella, the tyrant of Italy's controlling security forces and the country's most popular politician. Berlusconi's opponents accused the right of conspiring to overthrow Italy's democratic system and said Berlusconi wanted the office for himself. Berlusconi has denied that he wants to become president.
Instead, it is possible that he wants the second-highest institutional role, Senate President, but he would be a highly controversial choice, and allies have so far not supported him. Informed sources say that the election campaign reborn him.
The campaign is based on awakening nostalgia for the 1990s, the years of tax breaks and higher pensions.
Even without an official institutional role, as long as he gets the votes, Berlusconi will have considerable power in the next government.
"If he gets seven to eight percent, as he expects, it could mean the difference between a convincing victory for the right and a chaotic result," said Danijele Albertaci, professor of political science at the University of Surrey. "He will be of key importance for the survival of the coalition. And believe that he will do his best to make his allies feel it".
Ideologically, there is broader agreement between the right-wing alliance on an electoral agenda of tax cuts and immigration restrictions, and far-right parties are unlikely to meet extremist supporters. However, Berlusconi can, if he wants to, draw a lot of red lines. The position of Forza Italia in the center means that it is the only party that can theoretically turn around and support a left-leaning or technocratic government without paying a high price with voters.
"He is the key. He can play a lot in the center," said Albertaci. “It can remain relevant for the next five years”.
Translation: N. Bogetić
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