From the first day of the war in Ukraine, Tyson watched the Russians from afar. The drones he controls hover over the enemy deep in his country's territory. He learned to spot the distinctive markings on the grass at rocket launch positions or the dark spots that indicated freshly dug graves. One day he got lucky in following a haunted Russian soldier and managed to discover a target for Ukrainian territory.
However, six months after the start of the war in Ukraine, Tyson notices something troubling. Both sides are stagnating along most of the 2400-kilometer front line, with Russian forces entrenching themselves for the coming winter. "All day long they dig and dig and dig," said Tyson, who agreed to speak only by his code name. "The enemy learns quickly," he said, with a touch of respect. Russians in the trenches are not the easy targets they once were. "What we were looking at in the beginning and what we're looking at now - it's as different as night and day."
As Ukraine marks 31 years of independence from Soviet rule, and six months since Russian President Vladimir Putin sent thousands of troops to the former Soviet state, what Tyson observes on the southern battlefield holds true for much of the country. Neither side has a significant advantage. Neither side has shown an inclination to negotiate. And neither side is giving up. Ukraine vows to fight until it drives Russia out of its territory; meanwhile, the grim conflict appears to have only fueled Putin's drive to win, despite heavy combat losses and Western sanctions hurting Russia's economy.
Russian artillery repels all Ukrainian attempts to regain territory. Western weapons supplied to Kiev weaken, but do not defeat, the Russian war machine.
"President Putin claims that everything is going according to plan," Gennady Gatilov, the Russian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, told the FT last Sunday. "I hope so," he added.
Both sides are determined that "there is no possibility of peace - only a truce", said a person close to the Kremlin. So far, around 9000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war, the military chief said this Sunday. In July, the CIA announced that around 15 Russian soldiers had died.
Any agreement would likely codify a largely static front line separating Ukraine and Russia, with nearly a fifth of Ukrainian territory under the control of the invaders. Russia still hopes to take control of the remaining part of Donbass before winter, a Moscow source said. "Putin will not be ready until Russia has all of Donetsk," the mineral-rich eastern industrial region that makes up half of Donbas, the person said.
"The plan changed a hundred times. No one in Russia has fought against such a large army as the Ukrainian one. This is going to take a long time.”
Russian artillery repels all Ukrainian attempts to regain territory. Western weapons supplied to Kiev weaken, but do not defeat, the Russian war machine. "The US gave us enough to stop the Russian advance, to recover some parts, to shape the operational direction, but they absolutely and obviously did not give us enough for a major counteroffensive," said Andriy Zagordnjuk, former Ukrainian defense minister.
Ukraine has announced a counter-offensive to liberate the southern city of Kherson and push back Russian forces east of the Dnieper River, but so far has not put troops or equipment on standby. "The pace of the campaign will slow during the winter, although there will still be ground attacks - Russia attacked Ukraine in the winter of 2014 and 2022," said Konrad Muzika, founder of Rohan Consulting, a military consulting company based in Poland. "However, at the end of the day, both sides probably don't have enough troops to prevail on the ground and make a significant difference."
Putin hopes that the economic blowback from the sanctions will force the West to give in first - as a result of which the US and Europe would stop sending military support to Ukraine, and Kiev would be forced to sign an agreement recognizing Russian territorial gains, a person close to the Kremlin said.
"The general idea is that the West will back down in fear when it sees how high energy prices are and when it has to explain it to the voters," this person said. Certain members of the Russian elite hope that Putin will move in the direction of ending the war, said an influential businessman from Moscow. “They want this to end. It is clear to them how much chaos this is," he said.
Ultranationalists, on the other hand, want the president to go even further. The killing of commentator Daria Dugina, the daughter of ideologue Alexander Dugin, also fueled hard-line sentiment among the Russian elite, which is now apparently unashamed of things the Kremlin has denied for years.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as "Putin's chef" who runs a notorious mercenary group, posed for cameras at Dugina's funeral - boasting a "Hero of Russia" medal, the country's highest honour.
Margarita Somonyan, the editor of the RT television channel who was once ridiculed for interviewing men suspected of the Novichok attack in the British city of Salisbury in 2018, practically confirmed on Twitter that Russia had indeed carried out the nerve agent attack. In a speech on the occasion of Dugina's death, Leonid Slutsky, a senator and one of the main Russian delegates in the failed peace negotiations, made it clear that there was no room for resentment.
"Whatever party you belong to, religion, age, there is only one way. One country. One president. One win!” shouted Slutski.
Faced with such rhetoric from Moscow, Ukrainian leaders point to combat successes. Defense Minister Oleksi Reznikov on Tuesday cited the sinking of the ship "Moskva" from the Black Sea Fleet, the capture of Snake Island and the killing of thousands of Russian soldiers as the backbone of future victory.
And in downtown Kiev, where the government has dragged the wreckage of Russian tanks to a main thoroughfare, Ukrainians are clear that they hope for a total victory - to return Ukraine's borders to those established in 1991, with the Donbass and Crimea intact.
From inside a damaged Russian tank, couple Anton and Tetyana plead with Western supporters of Ukraine to send their country more accurate weapons, including anti-tank missiles and long-range missiles.
"The people of Ukraine will not agree to anything except the return of the entire territory, including Crimea and Donbas," said Anton. "Ukrainians can finish this work by themselves. Just give us weapons," said Tetjana.
US President Joe Biden announced almost three billion dollars in weapons and equipment for Ukraine in "the largest tranche of security assistance to date", while the head of NATO told the Ukrainians that they are an inspiration to the world.
"You can count on the support of NATO. As long as it takes," said Jens Stoltenberg.
Translation: N. Bogetić
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