Ukrainian forces advanced yesterday through an area previously controlled by Russians in the east, after a surprise breakthrough on the front that could mark a major turning point in the war, Reuters reported.
The agency reported that Moscow practically acknowledged the loss of part of the territory southeast of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city.
"The very fact of breaking through our defenses is already a significant victory for the Ukrainian armed forces," Vitaly Ganchev, head of the Moscow-appointed administration for the occupied parts of Kharkiv Oblast, said on Russian state TV.
Ganchev later said his administration was trying to evacuate civilians from towns including Izjum, Russia's main stronghold and logistics base in the area near the eastern front.
The Russian Defense Ministry released a video of military vehicles along the highway, saying it was reinforcements rushing to defend the area. The Kremlin declined to comment on the Ukrainians' progress.
Ukrainian officials have released footage of soldiers raising flags and posing in front of street signs in villages and towns across the formerly Russian-controlled territory. In one photo, soldiers hold a Ukrainian flag at a welcome sign for Kupyansk, which was previously more than 50 km inside the Russian front line. Reuters reports that the city is a vital strategic target as a hub for several major railway lines supplying Russian troops at the front.
Reuters reports that Ukraine did not allow independent journalists to enter the area to see the progress, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said troops had "liberated dozens of settlements" and retaken more than a thousand square kilometers in Kharkiv and Kherson regions in the east.
Military analysts say Ukraine's rapid territorial gains have caught Russia off guard at a vulnerable part of their front line in an attack on a major supply hub used by Moscow. Moscow has long held about a fifth of Ukraine's territory in the south and east. It has heavily beefed up troops in the south as Kiev has talked up plans to attack that region in recent months, but that has left Russian forces exposed elsewhere, said Konrad Muzika, director of Poland-based consulting firm Rohan.
"It's an attack that really took the Russians by surprise. It could really become something significant if the Ukrainians manage to take Kupyansk," said Neil Melvin of the RUSI Institute.
The American Institute for the Study of War predicted that Ukrainian forces would recapture Kupyansk within 72 hours.
"It would pose a threat to the encirclement of Russian forces in Izhevsk and could become quite a blow for the Russians in the Donetsk region. There is a chance of a strategic shift on the Donetsk front," Melvin said.
However, many in the West still predict a protracted war of attrition.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken yesterday predicted that the war would last "for a considerable period of time".
Blinken, who was at NATO headquarters to brief 29 US allies after a visit to Kiev on Thursday, said the conflict was entering a critical period. He called on Western backers of Ukraine to continue providing support during the winter.
"The initial signs are positive and we see that the Ukrainians are making real progress ... but this is likely to continue for a significant period of time. There are still huge numbers of Russian forces in Ukraine, and unfortunately, tragically, terribly, President (Vladimir) Putin has shown that they will push a lot of people into this, at a huge cost to Russia."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the invasion was "entering a critical phase".
"Ukrainian forces managed to stop Moscow's offensive in Donbass, strike back behind Russian lines and regain territory," he said.
However, Stoltenberg warned that allied unity would be tested in the coming months, "by pressure on energy supplies and the rising cost of living caused by the Russian war". He again called on allies to send special uniforms, generators, tents and equipment to help Ukraine's military survive the winter.
The first signs of a shift in the balance of power?
In his speech the night before yesterday, Zelensky said that since the first of September, Ukraine has regained more than a thousand square kilometers of territory in the south and east. Previously, the front lines had not changed significantly since Russia announced in July that it had captured the eastern Luhansk region.
"The situation on the front line generally resembles a stalemate, but we may be seeing the first signs that the balance of power is shifting towards Ukraine," Konrad Muzika said. He added that neither Ukraine nor Russia have the manpower or equipment to carry out a major counter-offensive.
"There will be test attacks, limited incursions into some areas. Depending on how they unfold, we will see more movement or more advances, or counterattacks," he added.
Dale Buckner, executive director of the security firm Global Guardian, said "we do not believe that the Ukrainians will be able to capture entire parts of the territory occupied by the Russians by the spring of 2023, but they will have limited success with smaller tactical objectives."
Buckner said that Russian supply lines are now stretched from Luhansk to Kherson, which creates the possibility of a surprise attack on the weakly defended front line in and near Kharkiv Oblast.
"This is the first real confirmation of Ukraine's ability to counterattack - but with limited success. It really changes the trajectory of the conflict. The Russians now have an increasing challenge to defend the ground they have taken," he said.
Zelensky will directly address American arms manufacturers
Ukraine's president is scheduled to hold talks with US arms manufacturers and military leaders on September 21, when he is expected to request additional defense weapons from Russia, Reuters reported.
Zelenskiy is scheduled to speak via video link before a conference hosted by the National Military Industries Association in Austin, Texas. It will be his first address to the US military industry.
Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine's defense minister, is also scheduled to appear and appeal for support in the country's fight against the Russian invasion.
Among the association's members are Raytheon Technologies Corp RTX.N and Lockheed Martin Corp LMT.N, which jointly manufacture Javelin anti-tank missiles used in Ukraine.
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