Parliamentary and presidential elections are being held in Turkey in June 2023. Six opposition parties joined forces. They want to send a joint candidate to the presidential elections. The question is who?
After several years of negotiations, the Turkish opposition finally found the strength at the end of last year to form an alliance under the name "Six at the Table" (Altili Massa). It consists of six political parties, whose cooperation seemed unthinkable until just a few years ago.
Their most important goals are: to end the long-term dominance of Erdogan's ruling AKP party and to return the country to a parliamentary system in order to deprive the president of some of his authority and power. This should be in accordance with the will of many voters.
Namely, in the recently published report of the Turkish Public Opinion Research Institute "Joneylem", 65 percent of all respondents were in favor of returning to the parliamentary system, while only slightly less than 30 percent of them want to keep the current system. In the same poll, about 63 percent of people expressed the opinion that Turkey was "poorly governed" under the AKP, and 58 percent said they "definitely do not want to vote" for current President Erdogan in the next election.
Kurdish party bypassed
The chances of ousting the AKP in next summer's elections are better than ever - provided the opposition alliance manages to maintain unity by then. The "six" include the following parties: the social-democratic-kemalist Republican People's Party (CHP), the nationalist-oriented "Good Party" (İYI), the Islamist and traditionalist-oriented SAADET party (which was Erdogan's first party, but has played almost no role in recent decades role), then the Democratic Party (DP), as well as two parties founded by two of Erdogan's former comrades: the Future Party (Gelecek), founded by former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu, and the LEK Party (DEVA), founded by former Minister of Finance and Foreign Affairs Ali Babacan.
The Turkish opposition alliance is therefore both broad and motley, but there was still no place for the Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) in it. The integration of Kurdish parties remains a controversial topic in Turkey. In the past, there have been several attempts to ban that party due to alleged links with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization in Turkey, the EU and the US.
One party leader, two mayors
Also, it is not clear who will lead the opposition alliance in the pre-election campaign against the long-term president Erdogan. Three possible candidates are currently being mentioned. The main favorite is the leader of the largest opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who has already expressed his willingness to be at the head of the coalition. Under his leadership, the party achieved very important victories in the 2019 local elections: CHP candidates won in the country's two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara. Both metropolises were previously under the rule of Erdogan's AKP for decades. However, Kilicdaroglu himself never won the elections as a candidate, and critics therefore wonder if he can really be an opponent of Erdogan?
Perhaps that is why Kilicdaroglu's party colleague Ekrem Imamoglu is a possible candidate for the opposition leader. He is one of the two CHP mayors who won the elections, he has ruled Istanbul for three years. Imamoglu is liked by many and his popularity goes beyond the party. He presents himself as a mayor who represents all sections of the population. But the argument against Imamoglu is that in recent years he has been on vacation several times during crises or disasters, which has been heavily criticized by the public.
Mansur Javash, the second winner of the 2019 election, also enjoys popularity as the mayor of the Turkish capital, Ankara. From the beginning of his mandate, he set himself the task of fighting corruption and placing greater emphasis on environmental protection, which was very well received by society.
But Javaš is a nationalist, which at first glance does not make him a candidate worthy of support, especially for Kurdish voters. Kurdish votes, however, play a key role in Turkey's elections. However, it cannot be ruled out that many Kurds could still vote for him for strategic reasons, but also because of the lack of an alternative. The most influential Kurdish politician from the People's Democratic Party HDP Selahatin Demirtaş and many of his comrades are in prison, and resentment among Kurds towards Erdogan's AKP government is very high.
Another counter-argument for appointing one of the two mayors as a candidate of the opposition alliance is that in case of victory in the elections, they would have to resign from their current positions. The previous opposition would thus lose power in Ankara and Istanbul, given that the AKP currently has a majority in both city assemblies, so they would choose their successor from within their own ranks.
One for all, all for one?
Seren Selvin Korkmaz, political scientist and director of the Istanbul Institute for Political Research, points out that people with strong leadership qualities play a very important role in Turkish political culture.
"The most important thing for citizens is to know who their leader is and what his name is. In the current system, only one person is in the foreground. Who will have all these powers in the future? Who is fit to rule? That's what people are asking," says Korkmaz.
The discussion of the "Six", i.e. the new Turkish opposition alliance, on these issues is in full swing. The name of the joint candidate is expected to be known only early next year. And regardless of who ends up being the candidate of the Turkish opposition, it seems that there is a real chance that that person will defeat Erdogan - provided that it really is a common candidate. And that this fragile opposition alliance lasts at least until the June election night in 2023.
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