Russian-appointed leaders in the occupied parts of four Ukrainian regions have outlined plans to hold referendums on joining Russia. Ukraine and its allies dismissed the move as a ploy by Russia to seize the initiative after heavy losses on the battlefield.
"The Russians can do whatever they want. It won't change anything," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.
"Russia was and remains an aggressor that illegally occupies parts of Ukrainian land. Ukraine has every right to liberate its territories and will continue to liberate them no matter what Russia has to say."
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Washington "unequivocally" rejects such referendums. French President Emmanuel Macron and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda described the planned vote as a "parody".
In an apparently coordinated move, pro-Russian officials announced planned referendums for 23-27. September in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which makes up about 15 percent of the Ukrainian territory or an area the size of Hungary.
Russia already considers Lugansk and Donetsk, which make up Donbas, which Moscow partially occupied in 2014, to be independent states. Ukraine and the West consider them to be parts of Ukraine illegally occupied by the Russians.
"If the idea of a referendum in Donbass was not so tragic, it would be ridiculous," French President Macron said, adding that the proposals for the vote are an additional provocation after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
In a post on social networks addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), Denis Pushilin, wrote: "I am asking you to, as soon as possible, in the event of a positive decision in the referendum - which we have no doubts about - consider for the DPR to become part of Russia."
Some pro-Kremlin figures presented the referendums as an ultimatum to the West to accept Russian territorial gains or face all-out war with a nuclear-armed enemy.
When asked about the referendums, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "From the very beginning of the operation ... we said that the citizens of those territories should decide their own destiny, and the overall current situation confirms that they want to be masters of their own destiny. "
If Moscow formally annexes a huge additional part of Ukraine, Putin would effectively challenge the US and its European allies to risk direct military conflict with Russia, according to Reuters.
"This whole story about referendums is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West," said Tatjana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik.
Russian officials portrayed it as a move that would give Moscow the right to territory it can defend with all available means.
"Trespassing on Russian territory is a criminal offense that allows the use of all self-defense forces," Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and now deputy chairman of Putin's National Security Council, announced on social media.
"That's why Kiev and the West are so afraid of those referendums," he wrote. "They would completely change the direction of Russian development for the next decades. And not only for our country. The geopolitical transformation of the world would be irreversible after the annexation of those new territories to Russia."
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the pro-Kremlin TV station RT, said that the referendums could bring either a victory for Russia or a much wider and more serious war.
"Today a referendum, tomorrow recognition as part of the Russian Federation, the day after tomorrow attacks on Russian territory would become a total rift between Ukraine and NATO and Russia, which would give Russia a free hand in every respect," wrote Simonyan on Telegram.
Reuters estimates that reframing the conflict in the occupied territory as an attack on Russia could also give Moscow the justification to mobilize reserve military forces numbering two million members. Moscow has so far resisted such a move despite mounting losses in the war.
The message from Washington and the West so far has been that the weapons they send to Ukraine should not be used for attacks on Russian territory, although they have not extended it to territory they consider illegally annexed, such as the Crimean peninsula, which Russia conquered in 2014.
The vote would close the room for negotiations
Ukrainian officials described the referendum announcement as a desperate step at a time when Russian forces are being pushed back. Andriy Chermak, chief of staff of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, dismissed the threat of referendums as "naive blackmail" and a sign of Russia's fear.
Any referendum on the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia would close the space for talks between Kyiv and Moscow, the Ukrainian portal Liga.net reported, quoting Zelensky's cabinet spokesman.
"Without a referendum, there is still a minimal chance for a diplomatic solution. After the referendum, not," said Sergiy Nikiforov.
Russia has declared the full conquest of Lugansk and Donetsk regions as the main goal of its "special military operation" since its forces were defeated on the outskirts of Kiev in March. It now holds about 60 percent of Donetsk and occupied almost all of Lugansk by July after making slow progress during months of intense fighting. But those gains are now under threat after Russian forces were forced out of neighboring Kharkiv Oblast this month, losing control of the main supply lines to much of the front lines in Donetsk and Luhansk.
The referendums were announced a day after Ukraine said its troops had retaken a stronghold in Luhansk, the village of Bilogorivka, and were preparing to advance across the area. Russia controls most of the Zaporozhye region, but not the capital. In the Kherson region, whose capital is the only major city that Russia has conquered so far, Ukraine has launched a major counter-offensive.
Pro-Russian officials announced that the referendums could be held electronically. Russia held a referendum in Crimea eight years ago before declaring it annexed. Western countries reject such votes as illegal and fraudulent.
In a move designed to support the Russian military in Ukraine, the Russian parliament yesterday also passed a bill to toughen penalties for a range of crimes such as desertion, damage to military property and insubordination, if committed during military mobilization or combat situations.
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