The war in Ukraine divided the partners

In December 2021, Poland's ultra-conservative, nationalist government welcomed some of Europe's most influential right-wing politicians, including Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán. At the closing of the meeting in Warsaw, the group published a declaration against "social engineering" with the aim of creating a "new European nation" and promised to cooperate in the European Parliament.

Only a few months after the summit in Warsaw, the governments of Poland and Hungary, which for years were kindred spirits in the EU ideological sense, diverged in their views on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While Warsaw is one of Kiev's staunchest supporters and calls for tougher sanctions, Hungarian leader Orban described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as his "adversary" and blamed the EU's policy towards Russia for inflation and rising energy prices.

The gap became most apparent in April when Jaroslav Kaczynski, Poland's most powerful politician and president of the ruling Law and Justice party, described Orbán's attitude towards Ukraine as "very sad" and "disappointing". Privately, Polish diplomats expressed disbelief. "For me, this is the country of 1848-9, the country that Russia massacred," said one Polish diplomat in May, referring to Imperial Austria's call to the Russian Tsar to quell the Hungarian Revolution. "Honestly, I don't understand the logic (of the Hungarian position)!" said the diplomat, adding that the Visegrad Group - an alliance of four European countries, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - no longer exists.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told a pro-government magazine last month that Poland would return to cooperation with the Visegrad Group (V4), effectively opening the door to better relations with Hungary. EU officials in Brussels took it as a sign that the Polish government is disappointed that it has so far failed to unlock 34,5 billion in EU funds for the recovery from Covid, despite offering modest concessions in its dispute with Brussels over the rule of law.

Wojciech Przibylski, editor of the Visegrad Insight magazine, said that Morawiecki is trying to test Polish public opinion, but facing the 2023 elections, he cannot ignore the pro-Russian tendencies of certain politicians who were in Warsaw last December, including Orban. Certain Polish political leaders, said Przibilcovski, would like to "change and plot conspiracies within European politics" with Orbán, but they cannot do so because of the Hungarian leader's unpopularity. "They should publicly distance themselves from Viktor Orban, whose political communication has become toxic for the popularity of politicians in Poland," he said.

Cooperation with Orban was blocked by the Polish ruling parties because of the "dominant feeling of insecurity in Polish society and the way Russia is perceived and Ukraine is perceived," he said.

A recent YouGov survey pointed to a divide in how the war is perceived in the two neighboring countries. While 65 percent of Poles support sanctions against Russia, only 32 percent of Hungarians support this EU policy. Similarly, three-quarters of Polish citizens blame Russia for the war, compared to only 35 percent of Hungarians.

"The Russian war is a matter of security and identity for Poland, which is not the case for the Hungarian government," said Zuzana Veg from the European Council on Foreign Relations. "The Hungarian government still does not actually consider Russia a direct security threat. In this regard, the two governments do not agree".

Despite claims that the V4 is dead, Slovakia hosted the presidents of four countries last Sunday to discuss regional security and the energy crisis. However, at the final press conference, Slovak President Zuzana Čaputova pointed out the inconsistent position of the V4 on military aid to Ukraine. Those inconsistencies surfaced again on October 17 when Hungary abstained from establishing an EU mission to train Ukrainian soldiers.

The Polish-Hungarian dispute is just the latest sign of discord within the Central European quartet, whose politicians are less politically homogeneous than in 2015-16. when they mostly united against refugee quotas during the migration crisis.

Despite differences over the war in Ukraine, Poland and Hungary share a common attitude towards the rule of law and the role of EU institutions. Last month, PiS MPs joined other nationalist parties in voting against a European Parliament resolution that characterized Hungary as an "electoral autocracy". The two sides may still find interest in joint action, as both are at risk of running out of EU funds amid Brussels' concerns about corruption and a politicized judiciary.

The "ideological closeness" of the ruling parties in Poland and Hungary can provide them with a common agenda "as they continue their so-called fight against Brussels," Veg said. However, she added: "The conflict over Russia is really limiting that and I don't think that can be easily overcome at this point."

Translation: N. Bogetić