Two books stand out in a pile on the desk of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. One is a collection of essays on Ukrainian history by Mykhailo Grushevsky, a 19th-century thinker who helped create the country's national identity. The second is "Hitler and Stalin: Tyrants and the Second World War" by the English historian Lawrence Rhys. These books point not only to the president's attitude, but also to his changed circumstances.
At the beginning of the war, Zelenski gave interviews in the emergency room. He lived in a secret bunker full of instant noodles and a sense of existential danger. Now he is back in his old office in downtown Kyiv. On the shelf is an Oscar statuette that Hollywood actor Sean Penn lent him for good luck. Although the sandbags and anti-tank obstacles remained, the adrenaline from the first weeks was gone. The change can be seen in the routine of Zelenski, who puts on his glasses at six o'clock every morning and reads about 20 pages of each book.
Rhys's study of Hitler and Stalin hints at how Zelensky sees Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and Grushevsky's writing emphasizes the importance of people's forces in Ukrainian history. Zelenskiy's war goals reflect both concepts.
"People don't want to compromise on territory," Zelensky told the British "Economist", warning that allowing the "freezing" of the conflict with any Ukrainian territory in Russian hands would simply encourage Putin. "And that is why it is very important to return to our borders from 1991". This includes not only the territory that Russia conquered this year, but also Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, and parts of the Donbass that were simultaneously occupied by Russian proxies.
The "Economist" also spoke with the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian forces for the last year and a half, General Valery Zaluzhny, as well as with Colonel-General Oleksandr Sirsky, the commander of the ground forces of Ukraine, who led the defense of Kiev in the spring and the spectacular counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region in September.
All three pointed out that the outcome of the war depends on the next few months. They are convinced that Russia is preparing another major offensive, which will begin already in January. Regardless of whether Ukraine launches a pre-emptive strike or waits to launch a counterattack, how it assembles and deploys its forces, how much ammunition and equipment it collects in the coming weeks and months - those decisions will determine the future of their country.
Ukraine had a triumphant autumn. General Sirski's lightning advance through Kharkov prompted Putin to appoint a new commander and recruit 300.000 troops. Russia's position was so precarious in October that its generals began discussing nuclear options. In November, Ukrainian forces entered Kherson. "This is the beginning of the end of the war," Zelenski said as he walked through the newly liberated city. "Step by step we are reaching all the temporarily occupied territories".
However, neither Zalužnji nor Sirski sound triumphant. One of the reasons is the escalation of the air war. Since October, Russia has been striking Ukraine's power plants and power grid with drones and missiles almost every Sunday, causing long and frequent blackouts. Although Russia is running out of precision-guided missiles, it is believed that in recent weeks it has offered Iran fighter jets and helicopters in exchange for thousands of drones and, possibly, ballistic missiles, writes "Ekonomist".
"It seems to me that we are on the edge," warns Zalužnji. Larger attacks could completely disable the network. "Then the soldiers' wives and children would freeze. What mood will the fighters be in? Without water, light and heating, can we talk about preparing reserves to continue the fight?” American officials announced on December 13 that they are close to a decision to send Patriot anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine, which, unlike the systems sent so far, can shoot down ballistic missiles.
Another challenge is the fighting that is currently taking place in Donbass, especially around the town of Bahmut. General Sirsky says Russian tactics there have changed under Sergei Surovikin, who took over in October. The mercenary group Wagner, which is better equipped than the regular Russian army, fights in the first echelon. In the back are troops from Chechnya and other regular soldiers. But while these forces once fought separately, today they work together in squads of 900 or more soldiers, moving mostly on foot.
Bakhmut is not a particularly strategic location, and the Russians also lack the manpower to exploit the breakthrough, so the aim of the relentless attacks, the generals believe, is to pin Ukrainian units there so that they cannot be used to strengthen the offensive in the Luhansk region in the north. "Now the enemy is trying to take the initiative from us," says General Sirski. "He's trying to force us to go on the defensive."
Ukraine also faces a new threat from Belarus, which began large-scale military exercises in the summer and recently updated its military registry. Western officials say Belarus has probably provided too much material support to Russian units to enter the battle itself, but the move is likely aimed at pinning down Ukrainian forces in the north in case Kiev is attacked again, preventing them from participating. in each new offensive.
The third challenge, which "Economist" highlights as the most serious, is the mobilization of Russian forces. Although those efforts have been largely downplayed, with countless stories of inadequate equipment and disgruntled recruits, Ukraine's General Staff and its Western partners are more cautious.
"We all know that the quality is poor and they lack equipment," says Kusti Salm of the Estonian Defense Ministry. "But the fact that they can mobilize so quickly is a warning for Ukraine and ultimately for NATO. Programs run by Britain and the European Union can train about 30.000 Ukrainian soldiers in 18 months, he says. Russia managed to train five times as many new soldiers in a short time.
"Anyone who underestimates the Russians is headed for defeat"
The Russian mobilization succeeded," says General Zalužnji. "The emperor tells them to go to war, and they go to war. General Sirski agrees. "The enemy should not be underestimated. Russians are not idiots. They are not weak ... and have great potential in terms of manpower. Anyone who underestimates them is headed for defeat.”
He cites the example of how Russian conscripts, equipped only with small arms, successfully slowed Ukrainian attacks in Kremina and Svatov in the Luhansk region, although the autumn mud was helpful. The mobilization also allowed Russia to rotate forces on and off the front lines more often, he said, allowing them to rest and recover. "In that respect, they have an advantage."
Zalužnji says that a major Russian attack could come "in February, at best in March, and at worst at the end of January." He warns that it could happen anywhere: in the Donbass, where Putin wants to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region, in the south, towards the city of Dnieper, and even towards the capital. "I have no doubt that they will go to Kiev once again".
This means, as "Economist" writes, that the war has become an arms race. The fighting will slow down during the winter, but it won't stop. A December 10 rocket attack on barracks used by the Wagner group in Melitopol demonstrated how Ukraine can use American-supplied HIMARS launchers to wear down Russian forces in the coming months. However, in Donbass, the war is still made up of muddy trenches, relentless shelling and bloody infantry battles.
Sending in reserve forces is a temptation, but a wiser strategy is to guard them.
“I know how many combat units I have right now, how many combat units I have to create by the end of the year and, most importantly, not to touch them in any way now. No matter how difficult it is," says General Zalužnji.
"Let the soldiers in the trenches forgive me. It is more important to focus now on the accumulation of resources for the longer and more difficult battles that may begin next year."
Ukraine has enough troops, more than 700.000, in one form or another, of which more than 200.000 are trained for combat. But there is a lack of equipment. Ammunition is key, says Sirski. "Artillery plays a decisive role in this war and everything really depends on the amount of supplies, and that in many cases determines the success of the battle".
"I know I can defeat this enemy," says Zalužnji. “But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles), 500 howitzers”. The "Economist" notes that the arsenal the general is looking for is larger than the total armored forces of most European armies.
Ukrainian partners are accelerating efforts to repair and refurbish old and damaged equipment to get it back to the battlefield faster, in part by teaching Ukraine to repair it as close to the front lines as possible. They are also ramping up weapons production to meet growing demand from Ukraine and its own armed forces.
The US Congress has agreed in principle to allow the Pentagon to purchase ammunition theoretically sufficient to sustain the most intense rate of Ukrainian fire for five months without stopping. But it will be produced over several years and will not be ready for the spring offensive.
Russia has similar problems and will run out of "fully usable" ammunition early next year, a US official said. This will force it to use poorly maintained supplies and suppliers like North Korea.
"Her ability to conduct successful offensive land operations is rapidly diminishing," Admiral Tony Radakin, head of the British military, said on September 14.
However, Putin reckons he can manufacture bad shells longer than America and Europe can send Ukraine brand new ones.
Time is of the essence
Stocks also affect strategy, states "Ekonomist" and adds that the decisions that torment Zelenskiy and his generals echo those that occur in any long-term conflict. "In 1943, for example, Germany was on the defensive, but the Allies disagreed on where and when to take advantage. Britain wanted to strike in Italy and the Mediterranean. America and the Soviet Union were more in favor of invading France. Post-war considerations also played a role. Britain wanted to invade the Balkans to prevent Soviet dominance in the area. Today, the Ukrainian high command is grappling with the same kind of question, but from a much more dangerous position," writes the British weekly.
The analysis states that time is of the essence and that in case of a premature attack, Ukraine will not have enough trained and equipped units.
"With these kinds of resources, I cannot run new large-scale operations, although we are currently working on one," says Zalužnji. But if delayed, Russia could strike first and contain Ukrainian forces.
Zelensky warns that the long-term occupation is already poisoning the minds of Ukrainians.
"I have to admit that this propaganda model of the Kremlin works". He says that Ukrainians in the occupied territories are exposed only to relentless misinformation. "It's a little scary to see how the liberated cities have changed when we go to some of them," he said. That's why the strategy of slowly exhausting Russia is not an option.
"The main thing is not to be afraid of this enemy," says Zalužnji. "We can fight against him, we must fight today, here and now. And that should not be postponed until tomorrow, because there will be problems".
You have to feel the spirit of the army
General Siriski explained that the Russians are changing their tactics under the new commander Surovikin. They attack using smaller, well-coordinated infantry squads, which he says is costly in terms of soldier lives, but that has "never been Russia's highest priority". "I feel every loss right here, in my heart," says Siriski, beating his chest.
Sirski went to school with many Russian commanders. He graduated from the Higher Military Command School in Moscow, the Soviet equivalent of America's West Point. But that's where the similarities mostly end. His command style deviates greatly from Soviet and Russian hierarchical practices. He preaches the NATO principles of decentralized command and emphasizes the importance of morale. The modern commander must stay connected, he told "Ekonomist". He receives 300 messages a day from soldiers. "You have to feel the spirit of the army," said Sirski in a rare interview.
His command style emphasizes the elements of deception and surprise, which he uses to compensate for Ukraine's apparent lack of firepower.
When asked what victory looks like, General Sirski repeats the maximalist mantra of his president.
"We have won when the enemy is destroyed and when we stand on our borders".
His sobering assessment of the current difficulties suggests that he is not convinced that this will happen anytime soon, according to “Economist.
Ukraine will offer what he describes as "active defense" in the near future. However, given his performance so far, he may have a more ambitious plan. “All I will say is that we study the enemy carefully. And that every poison has an antidote".
Zelensky insists that the only way to end the war is for Russia to withdraw completely, both from the territory it conquered this year and from the territory it has occupied since 2014.
"The only question is whether we will drive them out or whether they will withdraw," says Zelenski. "If he (Putin) now retreats to the borders of 1991, then there will be room for diplomacy. Only he can really turn the war from a military path to a diplomatic one."
Some Ukrainian generals believe the goal of the offensive should not just be to liberate territory, but to do so in a way that encourages Putin to make a deal. A European official familiar with Ukrainian planning said that the ideal operation would be one that would convince Putin that he cannot win and that by prolonging the war he risks being left without what he won before the war - Crimea and a third of the Donbass. Like all strategies of coercion, such an attack would rely on restraint as much as on aggression, by threatening Crimea, but also by possibly giving it up.
While Ukraine is progressing, its partners could worry more and more about the risk of nuclear escalation and accordingly limit support, writes "Ekonomist" and recalls that the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at the beginning of December that the US goal is to give Ukraine the means to "take back the territory which was taken away from her on February 24".
"But the war that revolves around Ukraine's identity as much as its territory, a war that has forged that identity anew, far more strongly than before, has unleashed forces that cannot be controlled even by Zelensky, today perhaps the most popular leader in the world," the British newspaper said. Zelensky notes that more than 95 percent of his citizens want to liberate all of Ukraine. Hatred of Russia runs deep. “It's a tragedy for the families who lost their children ... That's why people hate. They don't want compromises".
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