Kremlin watchers are trying to understand the motive behind Russia's latest change in leadership on the battlefield after Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov was unexpectedly entrusted with commanding the invasion of Ukraine.
The previous commander, who held the role for three months, General Sergei Surovikin, became one of Gerasimov's three deputies.
Moscow explained the decision - at least the third sudden change of commander-in-chief in the 11-month war - as a response to the growing importance of the campaign.
Both Russian and Western commentators see attempts to shift blame for the setbacks, in which Russia has lost about 40 percent of the territory it had captured since February.
Many nationalist war bloggers who have permission from the Kremlin to criticize the conduct of the war have blamed Gerasimov, 67, for the fact that the superpower's army - which has reportedly been modernized and received new expensive equipment in the past 15 years - has failed to subdue its much smaller neighbour, reports Reuters.
Critics in Ukraine, the West and even Russia say the Russian armed forces are poorly prepared and equipped, slow to react and undermined by disparate and often distant command structures.
After the failure of an unplanned mobilization campaign to turn the tide of the war in Russia's favor, rumors swirled for months that Gerasimov, barely visible in public, would be sidelined.
Both Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group mercenary militia, and Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya, have issued thinly veiled criticisms of Gerasimov while boasting about the battlefield success of their supposedly superior, semi-autonomous forces.
Defense Department supporters say Russia often performs poorly at the start of wars, and that many of the problems with supply, technology and command that have become apparent in the past 10 months have been or are being addressed.
The Ministry of Defense announced that the seniority of the commander-in-chief of the "special military operation" is a reflection of the expansion of its scope and the need to improve organization and command.
Apart from Surovikin, a 56-year-old veteran of the wars in Chechnya and Syria, known as General Armageddon, Gerasimov's deputies are General Oleg Salyukov and Deputy Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Alexei Kim.
Igor Korotchenko, a hard-line military expert who gets a lot of airtime on state television, said President Vladimir Putin's decision was prompted by Ukraine receiving long-range heavy weaponry from the West and looks set to soon receive Western armored fighting vehicles and possibly battle tanks.
He said that Gerasimov's arrival increases the likelihood that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine:
"The appointment of Gerasimov means that all means of destruction from the arsenal of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - without exception - can be used."
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu promised on Tuesday to build a richer arsenal of weapons, strengthen aviation technology and improve drone production.
By entrusting direct command to Gerasimov, Putin can send a signal to the West about his determination to win the war, strengthen the military's status in relation to Prigozhin's and Kadyrov's militias and make his top general more accountable for the day-to-day management of the invasion, Reuters estimates.
"Now the General Staff is directly and uncompromisingly responsible for absolutely everything," said Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov, who goes by the name WarGonzo.
"General Armageddon is still at the center of decision-making, but in a much less vulnerable position."
Russia expert and historian Mark Galeotti says "that it is a kind of degradation (for Gerasimov) or at least the most poisonous chalice, CNN reported. "Now the responsibility is on him and I guess that Putin has unrealistic expectations again".
A prominent Russian military blogger who publishes on the Telegram application under the name Ribar, assessed that Surovikin has become a scapegoat for military debacles.
However, Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general, tweeted that Putin and Shoigu "set up Gerasimov as a scapegoat for all of Russia's failures."
The Ukrainian ministry ridiculed the decision. "Every Russian general must get at least one chance to fail in Ukraine. Some may be lucky enough to be fooled twice.”
Tatjana Stanovaja, founder of the political analysis firm R. Politik, does not think that the change will make a big difference.
"Gerasimov was entrusted with the command of the military operation because of Surovikin's serious failures," she assessed.
"Putin is looking for effective tactics in a situation of 'creeping' defeat."
She said that Putin is trying to reorganize and therefore gives a chance to those he considers convincing. "Today, Gerasimov turned out to be convincing. Tomorrow it could be anyone else.”
Some analysts believe the move may also be an attempt by the defense ministry to tighten control over the campaign ahead of a crucial few months during which the rest of the reserve forces mobilized in the fall of 2022 will be deployed after training. The Ukrainian army announced that it expects a new Russian offensive at the beginning of spring.
A key role in the conquest of Crimea and support for Assad
Putin appointed Gerasimov as chief of the general staff and deputy defense minister on November 9, 2012, three days after Putin's longtime ally Shoigu was named defense minister.
They all have one of three nuclear briefcases that can be used to issue a nuclear attack order.
Gerasimov played a key role in Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea from Ukraine and in Russia's crucial military support for President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war.
The American State Department imposed sanctions on him the day after the invasion of Ukraine, with the explanation that he is one of three high-ranking Russian officials, besides Putin, who are directly responsible for the war.
Nevertheless, Gerasimov sometimes speaks with American General Mark Milley, the chief of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Gerasimov was born on September 8, 1955 in Kazan, advanced through the ranks of the Russian tank forces and graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff in 1997.
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