Western allies yesterday promised Ukraine new weapons worth billions of dollars, but the big question of whether they will send heavy tanks remained unanswered, and it is not yet known whether Germany will lift the veto.
Fearing that winter will give Russian forces time to regroup and launch a major attack, Ukraine is pressing for Leopard battle tanks, which are owned by a number of NATO members, but their delivery to Ukraine requires German consent.
A source from the German government said that Berlin will withdraw its objections if Washington sends its Abrams tanks, Reuters reported.
I am moderately skeptical, moderately pessimistic because the Germans defend themselves from this like the devil defends himself from holy water, said the Polish Prime Minister ahead of today's meeting of military leaders at the Ramstein base
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is reluctant to send weapons that are seen as provoking Moscow. Many of Berlin's Western allies dispute that argument, given that Russia is already fully committed to the war.
The two countries tried yesterday to resolve the deadlock at the meeting between US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin and the new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Berlin. However, there was no word on whether they had made progress ahead of a meeting of dozens of allies today in Ramstein, the main US air base in Europe.
"I am moderately skeptical, moderately pessimistic because the Germans are defending themselves from this like the devil defends itself from holy water," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said later yesterday about the possibility of German approval.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has twistedly criticized Germany for its stance on tanks.
"'I am powerful in Europe, I will help if someone outside Europe also helps.' It seems to me that this is not a very correct strategy," he said.
The Ramstein meeting was presented as a chance for the West to send Ukraine what it needs to defeat Russia in 2023, with the 11-nation NATO group already announcing the deployment of armored vehicles and air defenses.
"The West must remain united and continue to support Ukraine with military aid," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said at a press conference in Tallinn with his British counterpart and other officials.
"What Ukraine needs most is heavy weapons... the hardest battles are yet to come," said Pevkur.
Several countries will announce today that they are sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, the Lithuanian Defense Minister told Reuters.
"Some countries will definitely send 'leopard' tanks to Ukraine, that's for sure," said Arvidas Anushauskas and added that the total number of armored vehicles that will be promised in Ramstein will amount to several hundred.
Ukrainian authorities say they need the heavy tanks to repel Russian attacks and retake occupied territory.
"We don't have time, the world doesn't have time this time," Andriy Jermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, wrote on Telegram yesterday.
"The issue of tanks for Ukraine must be closed as soon as possible. We are paying for our slowness with the lives of Ukrainians," Jermak said.
Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Olongren said she is confident that a solution will be found to supply Ukraine with modern battle tanks, but that the Netherlands, which is leasing Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, will need a green light from Berlin before deciding on sending them.
A German government source said Berlin had not yet received a request from any country for permission to re-export the Leopard 2 tanks, which Washington and many Western allies say are the only viable option available in large enough numbers.
US officials say they do not yet plan to send the Abrams tanks, which are powered by powerful turbine engines, because they use too much fuel for Ukraine's strained logistics system to keep supplies to the front.
Poland and Finland have already announced that they will send a "leopard" if Germany lifts the veto. Poland said it could do so even if Germany tried to block it.
Russia responded to the possibility of sending additional weapons to Kiev with a threat of escalation. Former President Dmitry Medvedev made one of Moscow's clearest threats to use nuclear weapons if it loses in Ukraine.
The explicit admission that Russia could lose on the battlefield is a rare moment of publicly expressed doubt by a prominent member of Putin's inner circle.
"The defeat of one nuclear power in a conventional war could trigger a nuclear war," Medvedev said. "Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends".
Reuters reports that such apocalyptic rhetoric is aimed at dissuading NATO from getting more involved in the war, ahead of a meeting of Ukrainian allies today, but the explicit admission that Russia could lose on the battlefield is a rare moment of publicly expressed doubt by a prominent member of Putin's inner circle. .
After major successes by Ukrainian forces in the second half of 2022, the front lines have been largely frozen for the past two months and neither side is making much progress despite heavy casualties in intense trench warfare.
Bauer: Russia will remain a threat even if it loses the war
Russia will remain a threat to NATO even if its forces are defeated in Ukraine, the alliance's top military official said yesterday.
"Whatever the outcome of the war, Russia will most likely have similar ambitions ... so the threat will not go away," said Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO's military committee.
The war has almost exhausted Russian forces, equipment and ammunition, but NATO members expect Moscow to try to restore and even strengthen military capacity, Bauer told reporters at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels.
"The general belief is that the Russians will rebuild what they had, they will also learn from this conflict and try to improve what they had," Bauer said at the end of a two-day meeting of top military officials from NATO members.
"Therefore, it will most likely have consequences for our plans," he added.
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