The Kremlin will not let Prigozhin into politics

His private army is making its own efforts to bring Russia victory on the battlefield in Ukraine, but mounting evidence suggests the Kremlin has moved to rein in what it sees as the excessive political influence of Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Russian mercenary group Wagner.

Prigozhin, a 61-year-old ex-convict and ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, spent years working in the shadows on behalf of the Kremlin, but in recent months has emerged as one of the most prominent figures linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

With a shaved head and a penchant for simple vocabulary, he also attracted a lot of attention in the Russian-language media, where he gloated because the West had imposed sanctions on him, publicly insulted the top of the Russian military, tried to ingratiate himself with the Kremlin with success on the battlefield, and described in detail the recruitment of tens of thousands of convicts for his private army.

He stood out so much that allies and analysts began to speculate that Prigozhin might be trying to get an official position or a career in politics.

However, as Reuters reports, there is now growing evidence that the Kremlin has moved to crack down on such speculation at the root, ordering Prigozhin to stop public criticism of the defense ministry, and state media ordered to stop mentioning him or Wagner by name.

Prigozhin confirmed last Sunday that he had also been stripped of his right to recruit convicts from prison, a key pillar of his growing political influence and which has helped his forces make small but steady gains in eastern Ukraine.

Olga Romanova, director of the prisoners' rights group, said the Ministry of Defense took over the recruitment of convicts earlier this year. The Ministry did not confirm this.

"The position of the political bloc (Kremlin) is that they don't let him into politics. They are a bit afraid of him and consider him to be an inconvenient person," Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser who remains close to the authorities, told Reuters.

According to Sergei Markov, the Kremlin received a promise from Prigozhin that he would not establish his own political movement or join any parliamentary party, unless the Kremlin requested it. The message is that they will give him military resources, but for now he should not interfere in politics

Analyst Tatjana Stanovaja wrote in an article for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that while Prigozhin's downfall does not seem imminent, his ties to the presidential administration have begun to fray.

"Domestic policy watchdogs don't like his political demagoguery, attacks on official institutions, or attempts to troll Putin's staff by threatening to form a political party, which would be a headache for everyone in the Kremlin," Stanovaya wrote.

"He has not only become a public figure, he is visibly transforming into a true politician with his own views."

According to Markov, the Kremlin received a promise from Prigozhin that he would not establish his own political movement or join a parliamentary party, unless the Kremlin requested it.

"The message is that they will give him military resources, but for now he should not interfere in politics," said Markov.

On Friday, Prigozhin told a Russian presenter that he had "zero" political ambitions.

Markov, who described Prigozhin as an extremely conflicted personality, said he believed Putin told Prigozhin to stop publicly criticizing the military leadership at a meeting in St. Petersburg around January 14. Markov said he did not know all the details of who said what at the meeting and Reuters could not confirm the accuracy of his claim.

Prigogine has since softened the criticism and on Friday, in a rare interview looking into the camera, he emphasized that he was not criticizing anyone.

The meeting in St. Petersburg, which was not announced on the Kremlin's website, was confirmed by at least one other participant who posted about it on social media. The Kremlin said it does not comment on private meetings, according to Reuters.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment on whether and why it reined in Prigozhin, but on Saturday Gray Zone, an influential social media channel linked to Wagner, published what appeared to be a leaked document outlining Kremlin guidelines for state media. Recipients were advised to stop referring to Prigogine or Wagner and suggested instead to use generic phrases to describe his strengths. Reuters could not verify the document, and state media are not allowed to share such guidelines.

In comments on Monday, Prigozhin said it appeared as though mentions of Wagner in the Russian media had decreased recently, which he blamed on unnamed "losers" trying to harm his group.

Markov, who has written extensively about Prigozhin, mostly in a positive light, said he was among those asked not to promote the mercenary leader.

"They underlined that they are not banning us, but that it is better not to do it," he said.

Dmitriy Alperovich, president of the American organization Silverado Policy Accelerator, who was born in Russia, believes that Prigozhin's room for maneuver is shrinking.

"Prigogin's star is dimming. He went too far in criticizing the army and other elites," Alperovič wrote on Twitter. "Now they are clipping his wings".

After years of denial, Prigozhin came out of the shadows in September and admitted that he founded Wagner in 2014. By then, the Russian invasion of Ukraine had gone awry for the military leadership, with a chaotic retreat from Kiev, followed by a defeat in the northeastern Kharkiv region, and a threatened forced retreat from the southern city of Kherson. The hospitality tycoon quickly launched a public relations campaign and promoted his private army as an elite fighting force through social media and state television. He presented himself as a ruthless and efficient patriotic operator, and the top of Russia as incompetent and unaware of reality.

Prigozhin sent Wagner mercenaries to fight alongside Russian soldiers in Syria and in conflicts across Africa in order to advance Russia's geopolitical interests. He hinted last Sunday that he and his men might one day disappear as quickly as they appeared, something his many enemies likely doubt.

"When we are no longer needed, we will pack up and return to Africa," said Wagner's boss.

Admits connection to "troll farm"

Prigozhin said yesterday that he founded and funded the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a company Washington says is a "troll farm" that meddled in the 2016 US presidential election.

He has previously admitted meddling in the US election, but yesterday's announcement appears to go further than previously in exposing his specific links to the St Petersburg-based IRA.

"I was never just a financier of the Internet Research Agency. I designed it, I created it, I managed it for a long time," said Prigozhin in a post shared on social media by the press service of his catering group "Concord".

"It was founded to protect the Russian information space from the vulgar and aggressive anti-Russian propaganda of the West," said Prigozhin.

The United States first imposed sanctions on Prigogine in 2018 over his links to the IRA and charged him with conspiracy to defraud the US.

Special counsel Robert Mueller's report on his investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 US election said the IRA sought to sow discord in the US through "information warfare".

Mueller's report alleges that her goal was to swing the 2016 election in Donald Trump's favor.