Leopard 2 tanks from Norway, MiG-29 planes from Slovakia: NATO delivers heavy weapons to Ukraine almost every day. On March 20, the US announced a new $350 million military aid package, but the previously promised Abrams M1 tanks are still not included.
Abrams tanks without "secret" armor
Recently, it was said from Washington that the US wants to shorten the delivery period and send older models of that tank by autumn. At the beginning of the year, the American magazine "Politico" announced that the US does not want to deliver to Ukraine those types of Abrams that have "secret" armor that protects against depleted uranium ammunition. The reason given was "export regulations".
Gustav Gressel, a military expert at the Berlin think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), sees nothing unusual in this.
"Ukraine will receive an export variant of the Abrams used in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq," Gressel told DW. Their armor is similar to that of older German tanks of the Leopard 2 A4 type, which were supplied to Ukraine by Norway, and before that by Poland. The older type of Abrams "is still a good battle tank, has a good thermal imaging device, a powerful gun and is superior to the Russian tanks when it comes to handling".
Ukrainian software for American howitzers
Export rules are one reason why the US only supplies modified versions of certain weapons to Ukraine - but not the only one. "The question is what if the Russians capture the tank and analyze it," Gressel says.
This concern also applies to the US M777 howitzers, which have been delivered to Ukraine since April 2022, but without GPS navigation and corresponding onboard computers. They are therefore less precise.
The Ukrainian army quickly found a solution and installed its own systems, among them the GIS "Arta" artillery software developed in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian and Western media, this software proved to be particularly effective in May 2022, when Ukrainian artillery inflicted particularly heavy losses on Russian units as they crossed the Seversky Donets River near the village of Bilhorivka in the Luhansk region. Gustav Gresel estimates that Ukraine has an advantage here: "With such digital support, the orders to open fire are transmitted to the artillery much faster." On the Russian side, however, "radio communication is still used a lot".
Sergiy Hrabsky, a military expert from Kiev and a former officer in the Ukrainian army, understands that Western weapons systems are delivered with limitations. "All command information systems are integrated into NATO command structures and can only be used within NATO," Hrabskij told DW. "It is a common practice, and Ukraine uses its own systems".
HIMARS rocket launcher, but with a short range
The situation is different with the American-made HIMARS mobile missile launchers, which Ukraine has been successfully using since the summer of 2022 for precise strikes deep behind the front line. The US supplies missiles with a range of about 80 kilometers, but not the much more powerful ATACMS type, which can hit targets up to 300 kilometers away.
The "Wall Street Journal" wrote that the US even modified the weapon before delivery, so that it cannot fire long-range missiles at all, even if Ukraine were to find and buy them on the world market. The newspaper quoted an anonymous source in the US government as saying that the reason was the desire to "reduce the risk of the war spreading with Moscow". In September 2022, the spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, stated that longer-range missiles are a "red line" and would thus make Washington a party to the conflict. Gustav Gressel indicates, however, that the technical limitations of HIMARS can be canceled, if Washington decides to do so for political reasons.
Steven Blank, an American expert at the Philadelphia think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute and a former professor at the US Army War College, believes that restrictions on the sale of American weapons to Ukraine have to do with "fear of Russia and escalation of the war by Russia". He, however, believes that this concern is exaggerated: "I think we are too afraid of escalation by Russia. I don't understand why Russian territory should be excluded from Ukrainian strikes. Russia started this war and destroyed Ukraine," says Blenk.
He assesses that there is a "significant difference" on the front because Russia can concentrate its military equipment on the border with Ukraine and "shoot at will" from there without fearing a counterattack. "If they could no longer do that, then it would be a great advantage for Ukraine," Blenk believes.
At the beginning of 2023, Western partners promised Ukraine to deliver missiles with a range of up to 150 kilometers. Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that Kiev had promised not to fire them into Russian territory. However, this does not apply to the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia.
The wrong signals are being sent to Putin
Stephen Blank estimates that allies in Europe fear the US even more. The Biden administration wants to keep NATO together and that's why it takes this into account, the American military expert believes and reminds that NATO has repeatedly emphasized that it is not a party to the war and that it does not want to be drawn into the war.
German expert Gustav Gressel agrees with that assessment, but at the same time criticizes Washington's idea that it is possible to "micromanage the war so that it ends with the desired stalemate." The war, he says, "is too complex and chaotic to be micromanaged. This only sends a signal to Putin that he has a certain chance of actually winning the war. And any suspension of the delivery of weapons to the West would be a signal to him that we don't think so." seriously".
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