The war in Ukraine is by its nature psychological and political as much as military, as Volodymyr Zelensky showed when he predicted that "predators" in Russian ruling circles would one day kill Vladimir Putin.
Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian president would not be shaken in the least if Putin suffered the fate of Julius Caesar, rejected as dictator and stabbed to death on the Ides of March by members of the Roman Senate. However, Zelensky did not back up his prediction with evidence, and it appears that his main purpose was to bolster Ukraine's war effort by sowing the seeds of doubt in the Kremlin's paranoid soil of political power.
The questions of who could eventually replace Putin, and the policies that the new regime could implement, are certainly something that Western governments and Russia experts are thinking about.
Putin confirmed that the presidential elections in Russia will be held next year, which he will certainly win if he runs. A new six-year term would extend his reign to 30 years, surpassing Joseph Stalin, who ruled from 1924 to 1953.
Nevertheless, Putin turned 70 in October. The longer he is in power, the bigger the issue of succession.
In order to understand what a post-Putin Russia might look like, one should look at Serbia after the strong-arm rule of Slobodan Milosevic. He fell from power in 2000 after fomenting wars in the former Yugoslavia, as Putin did in former Soviet republics such as Georgia and Ukraine.
Milošević and Putin suffered from similar problems: the collapse of a multinational state in which one nationality, the Serbs in Yugoslavia and the Russians in the USSR, had more influence; the status of ethnic Serbs and Russian minorities in the newly independent states; and especially the determination to control one territory, in the case of Serbia it is Kosovo, and in the case of Russia, Crimea - which is the embodiment of national identity and historical pride.
Milošević died in 2006 while he was being tried for alleged war crimes. Last month, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin in connection with the forced removal of children from Ukraine.
After Milosevic, Serbia was no longer a war-mongering, hyper-nationalist state. But it has become a flawed democracy and remains at odds with the West, particularly over Kosovo and foreign policy that includes warm relations with Russia and China. Public life under Aleksandar Vučić, who has been in power since 2014, first as prime minister and now as president, has been marked by the concentration of power, privilege and media influence in the hands of his Serbian Progressive Party.
After Milosevic, Serbia was no longer a war-mongering, hyper-nationalist state, but it became a flawed democracy and remained in conflict with the West.
Similar conditions may arise in Russia after Putin. No Russian leader is likely to give up Moscow's claim to Crimea, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. A far greater power than Serbia, Russia will certainly not tailor its foreign policy according to Western standards. At home, the ruling group will ensure that national elections always keep it in power, even if voting becomes less of an orchestrated ritual than under Putin and more of a carefully crafted contest like that under his predecessor Boris Yeltsin.
As in the case of Serbia, a turn to Western-style liberal democracy is not possible in the near future. The only post-Milosevic Prime Minister of Serbia who accepted those values was Zoran Đinđić. He was assassinated in 2003. The rare respectable politician who generally stood up for them in Putin's Russia was Boris Nemtsov. In 2015, he was killed near the Kremlin.
In fact, one of the characteristics of Serbian politics after Milosevic is the existence of an ultra-nationalist opposition. This is why the ruling elite is on guard, and the official recognition of Kosovo's independence is almost unthinkable, even if it was inclined to go that way, which is debatable. Vučić began his political career under the auspices of Vojislav Šešelj, an extreme nationalist advocate of Greater Serbia, who was convicted of war crimes by an international court in 2018.
There is also an ultra-nationalist tendency in Russian politics, once too inappropriate for Putin's taste, but now more vocal because of the war in Ukraine. To the extent that elements in powerful military and security circles sympathize with this view, it seems certain that it will play some role in setting the tone of future Russian policy.
We can only speculate about who will succeed Putin. However, judging by Serbia's experience, even the end of Putin's authoritarianism and the war in Ukraine will not bring true democracy to Russia or relaxed relations with the West.
The text is taken from "Financial Times"
Translation: N. Bogetić
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