Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the summer?

The Kremlin said yesterday that Brazil's efforts to mediate the conflict in Ukraine "deserve attention" but that it had not seen any plans for a peace deal presented by France.

Bloomberg reported that French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to reverse a series of disappointing diplomatic offensives by presenting a plan to China that he believes could potentially lead to talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Macron tasked his foreign policy advisor Emmanuel Bone to create a framework with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi that could be the basis for future negotiations, writes Bloomberg.

The French strategy calls for negotiations to take place as early as this summer if all goes well, people familiar with the plans told Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.

It is not known whether Macron's plan has the support of Ukraine and its allies, many of whom have rejected ceasefire proposals that would have allowed Russia to keep the territories it has conquered.

During his visit to China, Macron failed to convince Chinese President Xi Jinping to speak with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

It is not known whether Macron has support for his plan from Ukraine and its allies, many of whom have rejected ceasefire proposals that would allow Russia to keep the territories it has conquered. Many states also doubt that China can be a neutral mediator given its "no-holds-barred friendship" with Russia.

Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva drew criticism from the US on Monday for commenting that the West was "encouraging" the conflict by arming Ukraine. He said that Washington should stop sending weapons to Ukraine and start peace talks. Lula proposed to establish a group of countries not involved in the war to mediate in achieving peace. He said that he discussed it with the leaders of China and the United Arab Emirates, Reuters reported.

Asked about Lula's proposal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "Any idea that takes into account Russian interests deserves attention and should definitely be heard."

Several countries and world leaders, including Xi, Macron and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, have tried to position themselves as possible peacemakers.

Russia says it is open to talks, but has made it clear that they can only take place on its terms. She said that Ukraine must accept "new realities" on the ground - especially its annexation of Ukrainian territories, which Kiev and the West reject as illegal. Ukraine is categorical that it will not discuss peace or a ceasefire until Russian troops leave every inch of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory.

The Kremlin said it had seen the reports but was not in contact with France about the peace plan.

"We do not know that there is any French plan, we have not received anything from the French side," Peskov said.

Too high expectations from the spring offensive

Any talks would depend on several conditions, including a successful Ukrainian spring offensive that would strengthen Kiev's position during the talks, Bloomberg reports. Some European officials worry that expectations are dangerously high for any Ukrainian counteroffensive, which may not be successful enough to free Kiev of all the territory Russia has occupied. A more realistic goal is a 30-kilometer advance to the south that would put Ukrainian artillery within range of Russian supply lines and create conditions for a deeper breakthrough in 2024, Bloomberg reported. This, according to the US agency, means that Ukraine's allies should increase their support and enable future offensives to return as much of the occupied territory as possible.

Macron previously said that China should play a significant role and that thanks to its relationship with Russia, it can "reason" Moscow. Beijing has so far given no indication that it is willing to pressure Moscow to withdraw its troops.

Top diplomats from the Group of Seven nations, including France, accepted Zelensky's "peace formula" this Sunday, which includes the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.

Kiev has repeatedly said that territorial concessions are non-negotiable and several of Ukraine's allies support that position, warning that any deal that effectively freezes the war would likely allow Russia to rearm and launch another offensive.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far not shown that his goals have changed, let alone that he is ready to withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory.

Bloomberg writes, citing informed sources, that Macron's plan would rely on long-term security guarantees for Ukraine that would aim to deter Russia from future aggression. The allies have not yet detailed the measures to be agreed at a summit of NATO leaders in Lithuania in July, but they will aim to help Ukraine modernize its armed forces and become more interoperable with NATO armies.

In parallel, Ukraine's allies are also working on ways to maintain ongoing supplies of weapons and key supplies such as 155mm ammunition.