Drone attack humiliating, but also useful for Putin

A humiliating spectacle for Russia after two drone flew over the walls of the Kremlin, its historic seat of power, has fueled various theories about who did it and why - but for Vladimir Putin that incident could turn out to be useful in a political sense, the Reuters agency points out.

Although the drones were destroyed before they could cause serious damage, the incident highlighted the apparent vulnerability of central Moscow to enemy drones, while angry analysts questioned the effectiveness of Russia's air defenses.

Drone attack on Kremlin would be the most serious penetration into Russian airspace since German teenager Matthias Rust landed his single-engine plane on the edge of Red Square in 1987, the AP agency reminds.

While the announcement of the attack, even if it was faked, risked undermining Russian citizens' confidence in frequent claims of military superiority, the impression is that inside Russia it only reinforced the Kremlin-backed narrative that the war in Ukraine is existential for the Russian state. and the people.

Because the incident occurred ahead of the annual May 9 World War II Victory Day parade held in Moscow's Red Square, a sacred event of sorts for many Russians, and at a time when, according to the West, Russia is suffering heavy losses with little progress in In Ukraine, some experts on the situation in the Kremlin believe that it could be a staged event whose creators hope to have the effect of general unification around the flag.

"It is an attempt to gather everything sacred in one announcement," said Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat, commenting on the Kremlin's reaction.

According to the Kremlin's version, the target of the alleged attack was Putin, the Russian flag on top of the Senate building in the Kremlin, and casting a shadow on Victory Day," Baunov said in a speech published on a YouTube channel. "They are trying to rally people around this (alleged) failed attack. Actually, it is about patriotic mobilization", said Baunov.

Such unity, potentially based on a combination of anger, fear and patriotism, could be useful as Russia prepares for a long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive that Kiev hopes will recapture swaths of occupied territory.

After Putin's cabinet characterized the drone incident as a Ukrainian attempt to assassinate the president, which Kiev denies, politicians across the Russian political spectrum have called for revenge and are asking Moscow to carry out what they call a "special military operation" in Ukraine in a much tougher way.

Some Western analysts wonder if Russia has any option left to escalate the conflict, other than the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a scenario that even the most hardline Russian nationalist analysts do not advocate.

However, Reuters points out that Moscow has other options for escalation, in addition to those that would be characterized as barbaric and illegal in the West, such as the targeting of the Ukrainian presidential administration and other government buildings in central Kiev and an open attempt to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his team in targeted campaign.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Solovyov, one of the most prominent pro-Kremlin TV commentators, both advocated just such action after the drone incident.

Anti-terrorist operation?

One way for the Kremlin to pave the way for such action in Ukraine would be to officially characterize its campaign in Ukraine as a counter-terrorist operation, something that nationalist politicians advocate.

It can also label the Ukrainian government as a terrorist organization and its Western supporters such as the United States as sponsors of terrorism, as Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, has said.

"The Kyiv Nazi regime must be recognized as a terrorist organization. He is no less dangerous than Al Qaeda," Volodin said in a statement.

"Politicians in Western countries who are pumping weapons into Zelenski's regime should understand that they have not only become sponsors, but also direct accomplices in terrorist activity."

According to Sam Greeney, one of the authors of the book on Putin and a professor at King's College London, such a move could open the way for Russian authorities to further step up repression at home.

"I would look for signs of whether the Kremlin is intensifying its rhetoric about terrorism and labeling the USA and other countries as sponsors of terrorism," Griney said. "It would open up a huge new space for the persecution of all Russian citizens who have contact with Western governments, and therefore would mean a logical continuation of the existing policy."

Another option available to Putin, though it would likely be unpopular, is to order a new wave of military mobilization to recruit and train additional soldiers for the war. The laws were recently amended to allow for electronic delivery of drafts and reduce the possibility of evasion after tens of thousands of conscripts left the country.

Incidents like this one involving a drone can provide political cover. Reuters reminds us that Russia is an extremely centralized and controlled political system and that Putin does not need other politicians seeking revenge to do what he wants anyway.

However, major political changes and decisions that are likely to be unpopular with the general public at home or to be condemned by the West still require some coverage, even if critics see it as illegitimate, to explain and justify such actions.

The investigation into the drone incident is sure to expose flaws in Russia's air defense systems. This could be the trigger for dismissals or wider government reform if that is what Putin wants.