He was imprisoned and banned from holding public office, yet he managed to overturn the ban and become a dominant figure in Turkish politics. He won five parliamentary elections, two presidential elections and three referendums. He even faced a military coup.
However, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is fighting for political survival in today's vote as he faces his biggest challenge since coming to power in 2003. Polls show a unified opposition could wrest control of parliament from Erdogan's Law and Justice Party (AKP) and its allies. According to public opinion polls, Erdogan also fell behind in the presidential elections, which are also being held today. His main challenger is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the secularist Republican People's Party (CHP), who is backed by an alliance of six opposition parties.
Erdogan's defeat would not only be the end of an era, but would start a huge turmoil in Turkey with a loud echo in the region and around the world, "Ekonomist" assesses. Turkey is the 11th largest world economy by purchasing power parity, ahead of Canada, Italy and South Korea. It is one of the key and inconvenient members of NATO, close to the front lines of the war in Ukraine and on friendly terms with the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is located between Europe and the chaos in the Middle East and plays a key role in limiting the flow of refugees to the European Union. It is also one of the few true democracies in the Muslim world, although Erdogan has cemented power by systematically weakening the institutions that constrain and correct bad policies. The opposition alliance promises to restore power to the institutions and repair relations with Western allies, including the US.
Erdogan did do some good things in his first years in office, but the steady accumulation of excessive power clouded his judgment and sense of morality.
Of all the bad consequences of almost unrestrained power, ordinary Turks are most affected by Erdogan's economic policy, which has led to high inflation, the collapse of the lira and a large drop in living standards, and many analysts believe that, if he is ousted, this will be the main factor. In two years, the president dismissed three governors of the supposedly independent central bank, appointed his incompetent son-in-law as finance minister, and since then has obliged the bank to conduct, as "Economist" assesses, an absurdly loose monetary policy. This has kept growth at a fairly solid level, but has led to inflation that peaked at 86 percent last year and is still above 40 percent, according to official figures. However, his supporters believe that he is the only person who can sort out the mess.
A charismatic strongman or an unobtrusive clerk
At one point, the pre-election debate in Turkey was reduced to an onion head and a warship.
Kilicdaroglu sat at the kitchen table holding an onion in the commercial, wanting to send a message to voters that rampant inflation affects every household. The price of a kilogram of onions has increased about five times in Ankara in the last 18 months.
"The real program of the citizens is this. They know that when I come to power, democracy will come, money will flow, investments will flow, the currency will grow, prosperity will come," Kilicdaroglu said. "But if he (Erdogan) stays, this bow in my hands will cost 100 lira. Now it is even 30 lira".
A day later, Erdogan projected a completely different image from a naval base at the launch of a new warship, where he boasted of Turkey's strength and influence under his leadership. That vessel, he said, is a symbol "that will strengthen our position as a leader in the 'Turkish century' and a country that has a voice in the world."
These two contrasting images epitomize the choice facing Turkish voters: a charismatic stalwart and the most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern Turkish republic a hundred years ago, or a bland retired bureaucrat who expects years of creeping authoritarianism and rising costs of living to finally win over voters. in need of change.
Erdogan has centralized power around an executive presidency that sets policy on Turkey's economic, security, domestic and international affairs. His critics say the government has silenced dissent, undermined human rights and brought the judiciary, police and military under its control. The government denies this and claims it has protected citizens from security threats, including an attempted coup in 2016. Its prosecutors intimidate activists and politicians with accusations of "terrorism." Among the political prisoners is the leader of the Kurdish party, the third largest in the country, which is threatened with a ban. The (opposition) mayor of Istanbul faces prison and a ban on politics. Former senior government officials are afraid to criticize the president.
Ordinary Turks are most affected by Erdogan's economic policy, which has led to high inflation, the collapse of the lira and a large drop in living standards.
Erdogan (69) and the AK Party moved Turkey away from Ataturk's secular system towards a program with Islamist roots. Opponents describe him as a sultan with ambitions to rival Ataturk as a historical figure.
Kilicdaroglu, 74, believes the time has come to set Turkey on a new path and undo many of the changes Erdogan has made in Turkey in line with his vision of a pious, conservative society and an assertive regional player.
"We don't want to be a third-rate democracy anymore," Kilicdaroglu said.
The British "Economist", in an article expressing support for the opposition candidate, writes:
"Erdogan did do some good things in the first years of his mandate, but the constant accumulation of excessive power clouded his judgment and sense of morality, as it usually does. Kilicdaroglu may be a little boring, but he is a persistent consensus builder and charmingly humble, unlike his opponent. If he were to win, it would be a huge moment for Turkey, Europe and the global struggle for true democracy," the weekly assesses.
Kilicdaroglu promised a return to parliamentary democracy.
"We handed over the Republic of Turkey to one person. Such a mentality cannot exist. We will win and fix Turkey," he declared.
Cautious optimism
Kilicdaroglu's chances are boosted by the fact that the traditionally divided opposition is the most united in the multi-year effort to oust the president. However, the difficulty of the task she faces dampens her optimism.
"Erdogan is a cunning and ruthless player who constantly outwitted his opponents in order to win multiple electoral victories for parliament, the presidency and in referendums," writes the "Financial Times".
Critics also acknowledge that in a country deeply divided between supporters and opponents of Erdogan, he remains the most popular politician, with strong base support among religious conservatives whose fate is tied to the president's.
"After 20 years, of course we still harbor some doubts," a member of Kilicdaroglu's campaign team told the FT.
After the earthquake that devastated southern Turkey in February and claimed more than 50.000 lives, the government faced criticism for its poor initial response. Erdogan also lacks the energy he once had, the FT says and recalls that his campaign was briefly interrupted due to health problems.
"No current president has entered a campaign with so many structural limitations and shortcomings," says Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University and a member of the CHP.
"Besides, this is essentially a government that has been in power for 21 years, which is unprecedented in Turkey's multi-party history, and Erdogan is an aging autocrat. When you add all these factors, structurally speaking, he should be defeated."
However, he is only a "cautious optimist" that the opposition will win. Like other analysts, Esen predicts that the presidential race will go to the second round, ie. that no candidate will win more than 50 percent of the vote. Analysts predict the same situation with the elections for deputies.
"I think both the opposition and the ruling party are confident of victory, and that's not a good sign in an authoritarian state, because even though authoritarian regimes make mistakes in their assessments, they also have a lot of resources at their disposal," Essen said.
An unequal race
Analysts and opposition members have long been complaining that the elections are being held in unequal conditions. Erdogan makes extensive use of the state machinery to support his cause, and much of the media submissively follows his narrative. He also used his media influence to convince supporters that the economic problems had more to do with foreign plots against Turkey than with his government's mismanagement.
His campaign was a combination of pre-election gifts - from free gas for a month and 10 GB of free internet for students to a salary increase for 700.000 public sector workers, plus the inauguration of government projects.
In the past month alone, Erdogan opened the country's first nuclear power plant, celebrated the opening of a major gas field in the Black Sea, got behind the wheel of Turkey's first electric car and unveiled the first aircraft carrier. The message such projects should send is that Erdogan is defying the West to transform Turkey into a world power, and that the best is yet to come.
"If you're wondering why he still has more than 40 percent support [in polls]," "one of the reasons is that idea and that grandiose rhetoric," says analyst Galip Dalai.
In his speeches, Erdogan accused Kilicdaroglu of preparing to "beg" from Western donors and "greenies" and surrender to the IMF, while he is sympathetic to the LBGT community and allied with "terrorists".
However, according to the FT, Erdogan's supporters know he is struggling.
"There is no panic, but they are not calm," a person familiar with the campaign told the British newspaper.
It is hard to believe that a fierce politician who ruled with a firm hand for two decades would quietly admit defeat and step down from office
Ferhat Pirinci, an analyst at the Seta Institute, who is closely associated with Erdogan and his government, says that the president's campaign is "confident". But "they think they should work hard, they know it's tense".
He believes that despite criticism of the government's response to the earthquake, the huge reconstruction needs are in Erdogan's hands, given his experience and performance in implementing infrastructure projects.
"Before the earthquake, support for the government was falling due to the economic crisis. After the earthquake ... everyone started asking "who can help us recover?", says Pirinci. "When you see the polls, even people who don't vote for Erdogan say Erdogan. It's about trust”.
The master of politics
Pirinci also suspects that the opposition inadvertently gave Erdogan an advantage by choosing Kilicdaroglu as its candidate. "He was one of the best candidates for Erdogan because he knows him. Erdogan is the master of politics".
Berk Essen says there were "better options" for the presidential candidate. He describes Kilicdaroglu as a kind, quiet person - "a good civil servant who knows how to unobtrusively build consensus" and who can be underestimated.
Analysts usually divide Erdogan's years in power into two halves. During his first decade, he oversaw major development, implemented a host of infrastructure projects, improved the position of devout conservatives previously marginalized by secular politicians, and attracted foreign investment. Even critics give Erdogan and his team credit for improving the lot of the poor by providing electricity and water, increasing per capita income, expanding wealth and health care, and building new schools, clinics, roads, bridges and airports.
However, the situation began to change after months of protests in Gezi Park in 2013 over planned urban development in Istanbul. Erdogan responded with a violent crackdown. The slide toward authoritarianism accelerated after an attempted coup in 2016, after which he launched a sweeping purge of the security services and civil service, imposing a state of emergency that remained in place when elections were held two years later.
Asli Aydintaşbaş of the Brookings Institution said the election is not only about democracy but whether Turkey can return to rule-based governance for all citizens.
"There is a feeling that everything depends on the whims of one person - that all decisions are made by President Erdogan, from trifles to state matters. And people, even those who love him, began to see this as a danger to governance," she told Reuters.
"Whether he barely wins or not, I feel the Erdogan era is over. Turkish society is ready to move on".
No messing with votes
Analysts and opposition figures do not expect fair elections, but hope that the voting process will be relatively free, believing that only a small percentage of votes can be manipulated.
Bilge Jilmaz from the Good Party (Iyi) and a Wharton business school professor, worries about how Erdogan might react if the parliament is at a standstill and the president is forced to a second round, which would be held in two weeks.
"Certainly there will be some fraud, but what worries me more is that because of the feeling of instability, he could create some tensions".
Ruin the judiciary, ruin the institutions, but when it comes to the ballot box, don't mess with it - the Turkish public responds every time
As the campaign intensified last month, Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu described the election as a Western "attempt at a political coup".
Still, Yilmaz and others seem confident that Erdogan would accept defeat, especially if Kilicdaroglu wins outright. "I don't think he will go down a path that is destructive for him and for the country," said Jilmaz.
"Despite everything, Turkey has enough democratic history and institutions to prevent a power grab," said Can Selçuki, general director of the Istanbul Economics Research firm.
"Secondly, I think the security institutions will side with the winner. Ruin the judiciary, ruin the institutions, but when it comes to the ballot box, don't mess with it - the Turkish public reacts every time".
Who will determine the outcome of the election
According to analysts, the outcome of today's vote will likely be determined by "restless conservatives" who traditionally vote for Erdogan, but no longer believe that he delivers results, then about 5,3 million new young voters, and the Kurds, who make up about 18 percent of the 85 million population. .
Reuters assesses that it is of key importance how the opposition will gain support among Kurdish voters.
The pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition alliance, but is fiercely opposed to Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years.
Issues ranging from the allocation of cabinet seats to how the diverse coalition parties deal with Kurdish rights and more than three decades of insurgency by Kurdish militants will test the coherence of the opposition alliance, the FT writes.
Opposition officials defend the coalition, claiming that it has been created for more than a year, adding that the parties have agreed on about 2.300 political points.
"People will have different views, but people have signed a political document," says Jilmaz. "If any coalition is stable, then it is this one".
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