The opposition is in shock, reconsidering its strategy

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is counting on the support of a third candidate to seal victory in a run-off election after Sunday's vote dashed his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu's hopes of a quick victory.

Erdogan's strong performance on Sunday brought him 49,5 percent of the vote, well ahead of Kilicdaroglu with 44,8 percent and a little less than the 50 percent needed to win in the first round. Polls showed Erdogan trailing Kilicdaroglu, but the election results suggest the president and his AK Party managed to attract conservative voters despite the cost-of-living crisis and rising inflation.

The candidates still have two weeks of campaigning ahead of them, and Erdogan's camp is confident they can reach a deal to hand Sinan Ogan, the nationalist candidate who won 5,2 percent of the vote, a comfortable victory in the May 28 runoff.

Erdogan now has a clear psychological advantage, and he is likely to ramp up his national security-centric narratives over the next two weeks.

Kilicdaroglu's camp, which promises to overhaul Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule and re-establish democratic controls in the nation of 85 million, is in shock at the poor result and is trying to rethink its strategy.

His six-member alliance did not attract as many nationalist voters as he had expected, partly due to the support of a major pro-Kurdish party for Kilicdaroglu's candidacy, Reuters writes.

Kilicdaroglu "must completely reorganize his strategy," an official of the opposition alliance told Reuters.

A senior official of Erdogan's party stated: “Our chances in the second round are very, very high. Ogan now holds the key”.

Yesterday, in an interview with Reuters, Ogan said that he will support Kilicdaroglu in the second round only if he agrees not to offer any concessions to the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), which ran under the banner of the Green Left in Sunday's parliamentary elections. The HDP, the third-largest in parliament, backs Kilicdaroglu, but has been accused of links to Kurdish militants, which it denies.

"We will consult with the voter base regarding our decision in the second round. But we have already made it clear that the fight against terrorism and the return of refugees are our red lines," said Ogan.

Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet personally with Ogan in the coming days. Given their conservative views, Erdogan and Ogan are considered more natural allies, although the president's alliance includes a small Islamist Kurdish party that Ogan also opposes.

"Ogan is crucial for the second round and he said he will negotiate with both sides ... but Erdogan has more to offer," said Hakan Akbaş, director of Strategic Advisory Services, an Istanbul-based consulting firm.

Reuters reports that the prospect of Erdogan's rule entering a third decade will disappoint civil rights activists.

"That would encourage Moscow, an important ally of Ankara, and upset Washington, European capitals and many Middle Eastern leaders who have problematic relations with the Turkish president," the British agency assesses.

"Erdogan now has a clear psychological advantage over the opposition," said Volfango Piccoli from the consulting firm Teneo. "He's likely to ramp up his national security-centric narratives over the next two weeks."

Kilicdaroglu vowed to win the second round and accused Erdogan's party of tampering with the counting of votes and the publication of the results. He urged his supporters to be patient, but they were disheartened yesterday.

"We are sad and depressed about the whole situation. We expected different results," Volkan Atilgan told Reuters in Istanbul. "God willing, we will win that victory in the second round".

By contrast, Erdogan's supporters were elated. Fejaz Balcu (23), a cyber security expert, is sure that Erdogan can solve Turkey's economic problems.

"It is very important for the entire Turkish people that Erdogan wins these elections. He is a world leader and all Turks and Muslims want Erdogan as president," he told Reuters.

Erdogan scored well despite voter anger over economic woes after an unconventional policy of low interest rates caused the lira to crash and inflation to soar past 85 percent last year. The opposition hoped that voters would be influenced by the government's slow response to the earthquakes that killed 50.000 people.

Erdogan's chances are also boosted by the fact that his ruling alliance, surprising analysts, won a clear majority in Turkey's new parliament, including from voters in the southeastern region devastated by February's earthquakes.

He will now tell the voters that by voting for him, they will enable another five years of stable government, officials said.

Erdogan's chances are also increased by the fact that his ruling alliance won a clear majority in the new Turkish parliament

"His motto will be: if you vote for Kilicdaroglu, he will be a clay pigeon," said a senior opposition official, who admitted that they have a tough road ahead.

The Nationalist Good Party (IYI), the second largest in Kilicdaroglu's alliance, received only 9,75 percent of support in the parliamentary elections. The Kurdish Green Left party, which won 8,8 percent of the vote, is not part of the main opposition coalition.

A third opposition official said Erdogan had succeeded in "intimidating and attracting some centrist-nationalist voters to his side" by claiming without evidence that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) supported Kilicdaroglu.

"We have two weeks. We need a quick recovery (of support for the opposition candidate)," the person added.