They call him "tongue on the scales", or the man who has the power to "crown" either Recep Tayyip Erdogan or Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
Sinan Ogan is not overly close to either of them, but in the first round of the presidential elections in Turkey, he won an enviable 5,1 percent. In an interview with the German ZDF, he claimed that he had expected over ten percent, but that it was "not a bad result" either.
When asked when he would make a recommendation to voters on who to vote for in the second round, Ogan said he would do so by this weekend. "We have no more time," he said.
How did Ogan get a good score?
"Refugees represent the greatest danger to our economy, culture, public order and peace, internal and external security. Now is the time for them to be sent home," Ogan wrote on Twitter before the elections.
Such statements by the candidate of the ultra-nationalist alliance ATA in Turkey do not cause indignation, on the contrary. And the tweet received a lot of support..
According to estimates, about 5,5 million refugees live in Turkey. After the pandemic, economic crisis and devastating earthquakes, they are not welcome.
Refugees played a significant role in Ogan's campaign. In his posts on social networks, he often portrays Syrians as criminals and dangerous people, while praising the Turkish identity.
With his 5,1 percent of the vote, Ogan's recommendation could decide the election race in the second round of voting (May 28). There, President Erdogan will have an advantage over the challenger Kilicdaroglu, as he won 49,5 percent in the first round, compared to 45 percent of the opposition candidate.
It is uncertain whether Ogan will choose not to recommend any candidate in particular, to recommend a boycott, and whether his voters will listen to him. Very little is known about his constituents. However, Ogan definitely has the cards for negotiations in his hands.
Neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu can ignore him if they want to win the second round. Both phoned Ogan, but he did not want to reveal publicly what they talked about.
Ogan achieved his goal
From the beginning, Sinan Ogan aimed for the elections to be decided only in the second round. In this way, he wants to force Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu to negotiate on his own terms.
Ogan wants to sell his support dearly. "When the time comes, we will not sit down at the negotiating table for free," he said before the election. In return for the support, he presented demands for ministerial positions in the new government.
Ogan criticizes both candidates for allegedly being too close to the Kurds.
He accused those in power of collaborating with the pro-Kurdish Islamist party HÜDAPAR. And the opposition alliance criticized because Kilicdaroglu received the support of the pro-Kurdish party HDP for its candidate. Ogan believes that the HDP, the third strongest force in the parliament, is close to the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party.
Ideologically speaking, Ogan is closer to Erdogan than Kilicdaroglu. However, if he still recommends voting for the opposition candidate, he will surely link it with additional conditions, such as giving up support for the Kurds. Whether Kilicdaroglu will be able to accept it is highly questionable. Because the majority of HDP voters voted for the leader of the opposition.
Turkey has had a presidential system since 2018: the president is superior to the government, appoints and dismisses ministers and high-ranking civil servants at his discretion.
He also has the power to pass decrees and fill many positions in the judiciary, financial or educational system. Key institutions such as the intelligence service or the powerful religious organization Diyanet are directly subordinate to the president.
Therefore, on May 28, it is decided not only about the president, but also about the head of the government who will lead the country for the next five years and shape the internal and foreign policy.
Who is Sinan Ogan?
Sinan Ogan was born in the Eastern Anatolian city of Igdir. He studied economics and administrative sciences at Marmara University in Istanbul. After studying in Moscow, he worked as a scientist at universities in Azerbaijan. Ogan was also head of the Department of Russian-Ukrainian Studies at the Center for Strategic Studies on the Eurasian Region (ASAM).
Ogan actually originates from the ideology of the Gray Wolves, whose original organization, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is Erdogan's biggest partner. Ogan was also a member of the MHP and its deputy in the parliament.
After an internal party power struggle, he was expelled from the party in 2017. Since then, he has been trying to profile himself and attract critics of the government from nationalist circles.
In March, it happened. Four smaller political parties under the leadership of the right-wing populist "Victory Party" founded the ATA alliance. 55-year-old Sinan Ogan was elected as the presidential candidate.
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