Even if the opposition wins today's elections in Turkey, what will change the least is foreign policy, especially in the Balkans, Vuk Vuksanović, senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, told "Vijesti".
"The Balkans will remain important as a geographical link between Turkey and Europe and will remain the only region where Turkish foreign policy has been successful," Vuksanović said.
He pointed out that Turkey's Balkan policy will continue to be based on two aspects - "the emotional element that insists on Turkey's special ties with Bosnia and Herzegovina and peoples such as the Bosniaks, and the realistic, pragmatic aspect that perceives Serbia as the most strategically important country on the Balkans, with which Turkey must have good relations in order to be successful in the region. Anyone in power in Ankara will have to be guided by those guidelines."
Defying predictions of his political doom in Turkey's elections this month, President Tayyip Erdogan won over voters with a powerful combination of religious conservatism and nationalism and is poised to extend his rule for a third decade in a runoff vote today. In the first round on May 14, Erdogan received 49,5 percent of support, and opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu 44,9 percent, and the current president's momentum has only grown since then.
Turkey's policy towards the region will continue to be based on two aspects - emotional and pragmatic
Commenting on Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama's support for Erdogan, Vuksanovic said that, first of all, it shows that Turkey is an important partner for Albania.
"If we exclude the USA, which is unparalleled as a factor in Albanian foreign policy, Turkey is a very important partner, especially when it comes to expressing dissatisfaction with the EU. It also suggests that since Erdogan took control of Turkey's Balkan policy in 2017, he has pushed for a personalist approach of building a strong personal relationship with Balkan leaders. There, Rama in Albania, Kurti (Aljbin) in Kosovo, Vučić (Aleksandar) in Serbia, as well as Izetbegović (Bakir) and Dodik (Milorad) in Bosnia and Herzegovina stand out.
Vuksanović also notes that 18 million Turks have Balkan origins.
"Until now, the Balkan community has not functioned as an organized political force in Turkey's internal politics. However, as time goes on, there is an increasing chance that this community will play an increasing role in Turkey's internal and therefore foreign policy. Rama's support is a potential sign of that trend, and another proof that the policy towards the Balkans will not change".
Although they express opposing views on almost all political issues, from BiH to global events, the president of the Party of Democratic Action Bakir Izetbegović and the president of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik are united in their support for Erdogan.
Vuksanović says that this confirms the thesis about Erdogan's personalized approach to the Balkans and the policy of building ties with individual leaders.
"At the same time, it shows the specificity of Erdogan's approach, where he does not want to create the impression that Turkey is a biased protector of individual groups in the Balkans, but that it is capable of cooperating with everyone. This puts Erdogan's Turkey in the role of not a mediator in the Balkans, since Erdogan considers that role ungrateful and does not suit his ego, but a player capable of doing business with everyone, while Erdogan promotes himself as a leader capable of making deals".
There are increasing chances that the Balkan community will eventually play an increasing role in Turkey's internal and, therefore, in its foreign policy.
When asked whether it is realistic to expect a geopolitical realignment of Turkey after the elections, Vuksanović answered:
“Less realistic than people think. If the opposition were to come to power, there might initially be a rapprochement with the West, primarily Europe, and a partial cooling of relations with Russia. However, this would only be temporary and the multi-vector foreign policy would continue. Turkey will still need the security guarantee it gets from NATO membership because Russia is all around it, but precisely because Russia is all around Turkey, Ankara must engage with Moscow to avoid unnecessary conflicts and to avoid being completely dependent on the West.”
In addition, Vuksanović points out, Turkey will economically need the European Union, with which Turkey has a customs union, as the main buyer of Turkish exports, but it will also need Russian energy sources and goods produced in China.
"Therefore, if the opposition comes to power, there may be gestures of goodwill towards the EU such as the release of political prisoners, but there will be much more continuity in foreign policy than people think."
Erdogan came to power by championing the interests of so-called black Turks, conservative, religious citizens from poorer parts of the country who felt marginalized by so-called white Turks in Kemalist Turkey.
The election was seen as one of the most important since the founding of the modern Turkish state a hundred years ago, and the opposition believed it had the best chance yet to oust Erdogan and reverse many of the changes he had introduced. The cost of living crisis and criticism of the government's response to the devastating earthquakes in February helped the opposition.
However, his AK Party won 10 of the 11 earthquake-hit provinces, helping it secure a parliamentary majority with allies two weeks ago.
The dominant theme is not the economy, but the culture war
Vuksanovic assessed that Erdogan's election result, better than expected, proves his political power.
"The effects of inflation and earthquakes are visible everywhere in Turkey. However, it turned out that Erdogan's voters are not only guided by this logic, but also by a culture of loyalty to the leader".
He pointed out that the dominant theme in Turkish politics is not the economy, but the culture war.
"Erdogan came to power advocating the interests of the so-called black Turks, conservative, religious citizens from poorer parts of the country, primarily from rural parts of Anatolia. This part of the population felt that they were marginalized in Kemalist Turkey by the so-called White Turks, an urban population that embraced the secular republic and Westernization. On one occasion, Erdogan even stated that Turks are a specific example in history, where they were colonized by themselves, referring to the dominance of one group over another. This cultural and identity war is evidently stronger in Turkish politics than economic issues, judging by the first round of presidential elections," said Vuksanović.
Speaking about Kemal Kilicdaroglu's chances in the second round, Vuksanovic says that more was expected of him and that the opposition played the card of a moderate politician who is able to win the votes of liberals and religious conservatives.
"However, even in urban centers like Istanbul and Ankara, Kilicdaroglu did not achieve a convincing advantage. He failed to win the votes of the younger generation and the Kurds who were supposed to support him. The fact that Kilicdaroglu is an Alevi, which is a community that practices a non-traditional version of Islam, certainly didn't help him. Of course, it should not be said that there is no chance of victory because many things can change, although the chances are on Erdogan's side".
Vuksanović added that on the eve of the second round of debates, it was more nationalistic, with a focus on topics such as refugees, migration and terrorism, and "all in an attempt to win the votes of ultra-nationalists who are at stake" in today's elections.
Although it needs it, the EU will not accept Turkey
The portal "Politiko" is in comment On May 11, he announced that Erdogan's re-election would be a favorable outcome for the EU and that a regime change would change the current dynamics between Turkey and the bloc.
With Erdogan in power, especially after he has taken an increasingly authoritarian direction in recent years, the EU has been able to avoid the question of whether Turkey should join it, ie. to legitimately rule out any serious discussion of Ankara's membership. His increasingly unacceptable behavior while imprisoning political opponents and undermining the norms of the rule of law gave cover to avoid the topic," the Brussels portal announced.
Regarding the relationship between Ankara and Brussels, Vuksanović said that Turkey was a dilemma for Europeans and that it remains so.
"They could never completely push her away, but they couldn't integrate her either. It was mostly a product of the fact that Turkey is too big with a young population, and if such a country had access to EU resources and funds, it would eventually become the most powerful EU member state".
Likewise, the Union did not like the idea of having its external border with Syria, Iraq and Iran, and the Islam-Christianity dilemma was also a factor, said Vuksanović, adding that everything else, such as human rights and Cyprus, was a convenient excuse for Turkey to postpones the question in Europe.
"Europe needs Turkey for security reasons, but it will not accept it as a member. On the other hand, Turkey will need Europe and the West for economic and technological development, but Turkey does not want to return to its Cold War role as an outpost of the West, which is why it will continue to cooperate with Russia, China, the Middle East, but potentially other players such as are India and African countries", concluded Vuksanović.
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