Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has used the country's NATO membership and location spanning Europe and the Middle East for international influence, is the favorite in tomorrow's second round of presidential elections, despite the challenge of resolving internal issues.
Erdogan, 69, who has gained more powers during his 20 years in office, won the most votes in the first round of voting held on May 14, while his party, in parliamentary elections also held on May 14, retained the majority in parliament.
And such an election result came despite huge inflation and the consequences of a catastrophic earthquake that killed more than 50.000 people in the south of the country.
His opponent in tomorrow's (Sunday 28 May) runoff is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the 74-year-old leader of the main opposition social democratic Republican People's Party and the joint candidate of the six-party alliance.
Kilicdaroglu has promised to reverse years of democratic backsliding under Erdogan, to bring back Syrian refugees and promote women's rights.
Contrary to mainstream economic theory that interest rate hikes help keep consumer prices under control, Erdogan argues that high borrowing rates cause inflation. The Central Bank of Turkey, under pressure from the president, has repeatedly cut interest rates to encourage growth and exports.
Instead, the value of the Turkish lira fell, and the devaluation exacerbated the cost-of-living crisis. Inflation reached a peak of 85 percent in October. The official figure in April was 44 percent, although independent groups believe the real rate is much higher.
To cushion the impact of inflation and win back votes, Erdogan took action ahead of the election, increasing the minimum wage and pensions.
The opposition alliance has promised to restore the central bank's independence and return to normal economic policy if Kilicdaroglu becomes president.
Turkey is also struggling to recover from February's 7,8-magnitude earthquake, the deadliest in the country's modern history. The earthquake destroyed and damaged more than 300.000 buildings. Several hundred thousand residents took refuge in temporary accommodation, while around 658.000 people lost their jobs, according to data from the International Labor Organization.
The World Bank estimated that the earthquake caused $34,2 billion in "direct damage." That international financial institution believes that the costs of recovery and reconstruction could be twice as high.
Erdogan's government has been criticized for lax enforcement of building regulations. Some people who were left homeless or struggling to earn money said the government's response to the earthquake was slow.
Despite the criticism, Erdogan's alliance won parliamentary elections in 10 of the 11 earthquake-hit provinces, "paying off the president's focus" on rebuilding the area during the election campaign.
Erdogan has promised to build 319.000 homes within a year and has attended numerous groundbreaking ceremonies, trying to convince voters that only he can rebuild life and business.
Kilicdaroglu, for his part, said that his government would give free houses to earthquake victims instead of the 20-year repayment plan envisaged by Erdogan's government.
Refugees, especially from Syria, were once welcomed with open arms in Turkey, but anti-immigrant sentiment is on the rise amid the economic crisis. A lack of housing and shelter in the earthquake-hit provinces has increased calls for Syrian refugees to return to their homes.
Kilicdaroglu promised to repatriate Syrians within two years, saying he would seek European Union funds to build homes, schools, hospitals and roads in Syria and encourage Turkish entrepreneurs to open factories and other businesses there.
In an attempt to win over nationalist voters ahead of a runoff election, Kilicdaroglu toughened his tone, saying he would send the refugees back within a year. Since then, he has also received the support of an anti-immigrant party.
Under mounting public pressure, Erdogan's government has begun building several thousand houses in Turkish-controlled areas of northern Syria to encourage voluntary returns.
Erdogan's government is also seeking reconciliation with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to ensure their safe return. Erdogan recently said there are about four million refugees in Turkey, including about 3,4 million Syrians, but anti-immigrant parties say there are about 13 million.
In terms of foreign policy, Erdogan has occasional disagreements with NATO, maintains close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and blocks the Alliance's expansion.
However, Turkey has also emerged as a key mediator between Russia and Ukraine, helping broker a key deal that allowed Ukrainian grain shipments and eased the food crisis.
Kilicdaroglu said he would pursue a more western-oriented foreign policy and seek to restore ties with the US, the European Union and NATO allies.
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