The ongoing NATO "Air Defender 2023" maneuvers are a multinational review of the air forces of the Western alliance. The goal is to improve the coordinated defense of the Euro-Atlantic area, and they are also a kind of deterrent against potential aggressors, such as Russia.
This highly resourced simulation of high-altitude warfare, which integrates a whole host of expensive and sophisticated systems to carry out complex aerial operations, is very different from the real war taking place just a few land borders to the east.
The warring armies in Ukraine are using small and cheap drones, equipping them with grenades and targeting enemy forces. It is somewhat reminiscent of the First World War, when pilots manually dropped bombs on enemies from the cockpits of their biplanes. Of course, there are other drones in Ukraine, e.g. those on suicide missions, which are difficult to shoot down both from the ground and from the air.
"This war is the way it is, because neither side can establish superiority in the air," Torben Schitz, an expert on security and defense issues at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), told DW.
The war in Ukraine – an example for future conflicts?
Ukraine's air force was initially small and with outdated equipment, and air defenses relied on weapons that its partners were willing to supply. The Russian Air Force appeared formidable on paper, but failed to make the most of its technical and numerical advantage. Russia can still fire high-velocity missiles from afar, but both sides have resorted to solutions that seem more improvised.
In any case, the war in Ukraine is making war planners in the West question how much it really reflects the future of the conflict. The question, in other words, is how to avoid a scenario where superior training and technology are called into question by a plethora of readily available low-flying objects—not to mention cyberattacks and electronic jamming.
Massive air superiority is central to the war strategy of the US and its allies, and until now it has always been almost guaranteed, because their rivals lacked advanced air defenses and high-end aircraft with well-trained pilots.
That kind of dominance may not exist in a future conflict. A "real adversary" could compete with NATO equipment and its operations, Šic says. He believes that this is all the more reason to "practice interoperability and practice the stationing of NATO assets in Germany, in order to master the procedures." Otherwise, the US and its allies could find their high-tech, multibillion-dollar air force ineffective.
The West was unprepared
A spokesman for the German Air Force told DW that defense against drones is possible in various ways, from short to long range. Low-altitude attacks are primarily the responsibility of ground forces.
Although it has been less effective than expected, Russia's war doctrine has raised concerns in the West about the mismatch between threats and the resources available to deal with those threats. That is why Berlin, shortly after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, announced that it would strengthen its air defense capabilities, both for the territory of Germany and for the territory of Europe.
"We didn't have a proper, integrated air and missile defense against those threats," retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who once commanded NATO's ground forces in Europe, told DW. "My concern was based solely on the fact that we had very little equipment. " such as, for example, batteries with Patriot systems.
"After I saw that the Russians were willing to use weapons that cost millions to target residential buildings, I thought, 'Oh my God, we're really not prepared for a serious air and missile attack,'" says the American general.
The US cannot fight wars without an ally like Germany, Hodges emphasizes. Joint maneuvers are therefore not only a way for allies to prepare for war, but also to understand what legal and operational limitations exist.
Germany hesitates with drones
"This especially applies to artificial intelligence and armed drones, because not every country in Europe is ready for it or has a policy that allows it," says the retired general.
Germany is thus reluctant to include unmanned aerial vehicles, especially armed ones, in its forces. At the same time, its fleet of fighter jets has become obsolete. Of the announced one hundred billion euros in additional defense funds, more than eight billion have been set aside for the purchase of up to 35 American-made F-35 aircraft that can also carry nuclear weapons.
Proponents of traditional air power argue that drone technology still can't match manned aircraft. Airplanes, they say, are more powerful, which allows them to carry more cargo. And they are less sensitive to various types of cyber attacks and electronic jamming, to everything that can bring down a drone.
Air combat operations of the next generation should connect classic aircraft with pilots and autonomous, that is, unmanned aircraft. The German-French project "Future Combat Air System", under the auspices of the European aircraft manufacturer "Airbus", aims to do just that.
Given the pace of technology development and differences in combat readiness, it is advisable to "avoid jumping to conclusions for our (NATO) forces from past and current conflicts," such as those in Ukraine, Syria or between Armenia and Azerbaijan, he told DW Lieutenant Torben Arnold, Associate of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He believes that fighter jets will not be obsolete even because of the use of artificial intelligence in drones. "At least not for now," says Arnold.
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