The signal could not be clearer: the new chief advisor to the Turkish president for foreign policy, Akif Çagatai Kılıç, met in Ankara with delegations from Brussels, Helsinki and Stockholm to negotiate Sweden's accession to NATO. However, only Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes important statements on this matter.
And he did it in the air, during his return from Azerbaijan. Turkish news agency Anadolu reported his statement from the plane: "Where is the pillar of NATO to fight terrorism? That should be cleared up once and for all. If we do not clarify this, we cannot say in Vilnius that 'everything is fine,'" Erdogan said.
Anti-Swedish attitude
The NATO summit is taking place in Vilnius, Lithuania in less than a month. The plan was to allow Sweden to join the Alliance there. Many expected Turkey and Hungary to lift their blockades. That's what the director of the Institute for European Policy, Fundu Tekin, thought.
"I am personally surprised that they hold so firmly to their anti-Swedish attitude, so to speak. "I think that everything has now come together and that Erdogan has a good opportunity to give in," she says.
At the same time, Tekin points to domestic political factors: given the victory in the elections in May, Erdogan can now rule much more relaxed. "The national-political argument, with which he would have shown the strength of his attitude towards Sweden, is now losing its importance. This means that Erdogan should actually get out of the election campaign mode now," says Tekin.
Stoltenberg's visit failed
But the Turkish president is far from that. This was already shown by his speech on the balcony on election night after the victory. Erdogan is still in the attack phase, and the visit of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who attended Erdogan's swearing-in, did not change that.
In his latest statement, Erdogan rejects what was actually intended as a strong signal from Stoltenberg and NATO. "We told him, if you want us to meet your expectations, then Sweden must first take measures against the terrorist organization. Stoltenberg firmly promised this," Erdogan says, "and at the same time terrorists were demonstrating on the streets of Sweden."
In Sweden, by the way, at the beginning of the month, the new Law on Combating Terrorism entered into force. "He is very far-reaching, by Swedish standards. This means that it can really be said that this is a concession to Erdogan, that is, that they met him," says Fundu Tekin. Also, the Swedish courts have started to make decisions on expulsion.
Allegedly, Ankara handed over a list of 130 names to Finland and Sweden some time ago. According to Turkish media, it is mainly about alleged terrorists, whose extradition Turkey is seeking.
Does Erdogan still want F16s?
At the NATO headquarters in Brussels, they hoped that in this way they would fulfill Turkey's conditions from the Alliance summit in Madrid a year ago. But everything done so far is not enough for Erdogan. His "Yes" for Sweden's accession comes at a price. And it seems that she is bigger than thought.
The director of the Institute for European Politics, Fundu Tekin, reminds us of the American F16 planes: "Erdogan will probably insist on purchasing F16 planes, in order to get a complete package." Tekin says that she does not think that Erdogan is holding everything back just because of the question of who is demonstrating in Sweden, and who doesn't.
US President Joseph Biden congratulated Erdogan on his election victory and apparently linked Sweden's entry into NATO with the delivery of F16 fighter jets – contrary to the official version. However, the US Congress does not want to deliver those planes to Turkey, because Ankara previously bought the Russian S-400 anti-missile system.
"Erdogan now had the opportunity to ease the concerns of his partners about Turkey being a very difficult partner in NATO and to make concessions," says Tekin. But he clearly wants the F16, before saying "Yes" to Sweden. For now, this is likely to bury the hopes of the EU and the West for better relations, and the Turkish president continues to cultivate the image of a complicated partner.
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