The conflict between the head of the mercenary group Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin and the military authorities of Russia is in favor of Ukraine, foreign policy commentator Boško Jakšić said.
He said that Ukraine has an opportunity to intensify the counteroffensive, but that everything will depend on the assessments of the leadership in Kiev.
"The conflict between Prigozhin and the military establishment in Moscow, which may end with the marginalization of Wagner or even his disbandment, undoubtedly benefits Kiev," Jašić told the MINA agency.
Jaksic said that Wagner is the most responsible for taking over Bahmut after eight months of bloody fighting and that the strategists in Kiev would rather have regular Russian troops in front of them, with many new and inexperienced recruits, than trained mercenaries.
He said that the events in Rostov-on-Don, where Wagner's forces took over the city from the regular Russian army and headed towards Voronezh, hinting that Moscow might be their goal, show that Russia is threatened by an armed conflict between two military formations, but not a civil war.
Jaksic said that due to criticism of the way the war was conducted, Prigozhin has the support of part of the command structure and nationalists who demanded a more decisive engagement in Ukraine, but he does not have enough support in the public.
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According to Jakšić, Prigozhin did not turn against Russian President Vladimir Putin, but against Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
"His targets are Shoigu and Gerasimov, whom he has been accusing for a long time of sabotaging Wagner's actions in the east of Ukraine, fearing that Prigozhin will oust them from their positions," said Jakšić.
He added that Prigozhin most directly accuses the two army generals of having ordered a rocket attack on Wagner's outposts.
"But he carefully avoids mentioning Putin, who directly helped him to get rich in life and to form a mercenary army in September 2014," said Jakšić.
He pointed out that he does not believe that an army of 25 men is capable of entering Moscow, since such a maneuver would meet with fierce resistance from the regular army.
"At the time of the greatest challenge to his power, Putin does not want Prigozhin in Moscow," pointed out Jakšić.
He said that the core of Wagner's forces consists of fighters who have experience of warfare in Syria and Africa, that they are equipped with modern combat systems and that they are theoretically capable of a breakthrough.
As he said, political support for Wagner in Russia would mean a coup d'état in Moscow, which is unlikely because, despite the crisis, Putin keeps all the levers of command under his control.
Asked if he saw that there was a party or an individual in Russia that would be ready to help Wagner, Jakšić said that there are such forces, those who are dissatisfied with the way war operations have been conducted from the beginning until now in Russia, but that they do not act as an organized political or military force.
"Public support for Wagner these days means running for a long prison sentence," concluded Jakšić.
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