He wanted to go to Moscow, but in the end he had to go to Minsk. The mercenaries of the head of "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin were only two hundred kilometers from the Russian capital when the Belarusian administration reported that Prigozhin "accepted the proposal of the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed Wagner personnel on the territory of Russia and take further steps to calm tensions".
Prigozhin has allegedly already left Russia for Minsk, the rebellion is over.
Suddenly, it is Alexander Lukashenko who saved Putin from destabilizing Russia in the midst of the war against Ukraine. "We are grateful to the Belarusian president for his efforts," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
A Russian TV commentator put it more bluntly: Lukashenko "deserves a monument in the best place in Moscow." But how did it come about and what role will Belarus play in the near future?
Fear of losing power in Minsk
During the rebellion, it became obvious that Lukashenko would side with Putin. The two heads of state spoke on the phone at least twice that day. It is said that Lukashenko offered to mediate because he has known Prigozhin personally for two decades.
At the same time, the Belarusian Security Council announced that Belarus "is and will remain an ally of Russia" and that any conflict within Russia is "a gift to the collective West".
"It is in Lukashenko's interest to prevent a major crisis in Russia," explains Jaugen Pregerman, director of the International Relations Council of the Minsk Dialogue. The government in Minsk is very concerned that the fighting in Ukraine could spread to Belarusian territory, Pregerman told DW.
The appeal of Lukashenka's opponents from the Kalinovski Regiment also showed that the fear was not unfounded. It consists of Belarusian volunteers who fight on the side of the Ukrainian army against Russia.
They said in a video during the Prigozhin rebellion that they were ready to use the opportunity and soon militarily "liberate Belarus from dictatorship and occupation".
"Lukashenko's interest is to prevent something like that from happening," says political scientist Pregerman.
Lukashenko and Putin: From supplicant to helper
Although Belarus and Russia have been contractually united since 1999, Lukashenko has tried in the past to retain some degree of autonomy. The relationship with Putin has always been turbulent, with many ups and downs, says Pregerman.
But from the summer of 2020 at the latest, Lukashenko is completely dependent on Putin. Then, after the rigged presidential elections, Lukashenko faced massive popular protests. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets demanding his resignation.
The Kremlin, however, stood by Lukashenko with loans and the announcement of a possible intervention. Lukashenko brutally suppressed democratic protests. The leaders were arrested or forced into exile.
But now Putin and Lukashenko have switched roles, says Belarusian human rights activist Olga Karach, head of the "Our House" organization. "Lukashenko was previously in the role of a supplicant who cannot restore order in his country. (...) Now Putin has found himself in a situation where order can only be restored with outside help," she told DW.
Karač believes that the Belarusian ruler will benefit from it on the internal level as well. In recent months, there has been a lot of speculation about the allegedly poor state of health of the 68-year-old Lukashenko.
Now, however, "his authority is growing, especially in the Belarusian security apparatus," says Karac, which is likely to weaken the Belarusian opposition as well.
Greater influence in Moscow
During the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Lukashenko politically supported Putin and allowed the Russian army to launch missiles into Ukraine from his territory.
Recently, many experts interpreted the Russian announcement that it will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as a sign of further subjugation of the "vassals".
Now Lukashenko could gain more influence on Russia, according to Pregerman: "His role in Russian domestic and foreign policy will now increase. I think that many people in the Kremlin will not like it," says this political scientist.
Lukashenko and Prigozhin: Acquaintances, not friends
Little is known about the relationship between Lukashenko and Prigozhin. However, the Belarusian president also had unpleasant experiences with the "Wagner" group in the past.
In July 2020, on the eve of the disputed presidential elections, 33 alleged mercenaries of Wagner were arrested near Minsk, under the charge of preparing "provocations". in the elections.
It later emerged that their arrest may have been the result of an operation by the Ukrainian secret service. After two weeks, they were released and deported to Russia.
For now, almost no details are known about the agreement between Lukashenko and Prigozhin. First of all, it is not clear whether the mercenary boss will stay in Minsk, or will go further abroad.
After the experience with the events in Russia, Lukashenko will carefully observe the head of mercenaries: "Prigozhin will not be able to assert himself in Belarus as he succeeded in Russia," says political scientist Pregerman.
A possible partner in negotiations?
Despite his apparently strengthened role, Lukashenko, sanctioned by the West, will remain dependent on Russia in the future. Belarus is “dependent on the development of the Russian regime. And now he has experienced the heaviest political blow in recent decades. This rebellion exposed the full extent of the system's fragility, chaos and internal tensions," writes Belarusian political scientist Artyom Shreibman on the "Zerkalo" portal.
Lukashenko's biggest advantage after the negotiations could be that he will once again position himself as an important interlocutor in the region.
A day after the failed uprising in Russia, the secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council, Alexey Danilov, wrote that Lukashenko's participation in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine "is not excluded."
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