Anyone who has studied Tayyip Erdogan's negotiating methods knows that the Turkish president is a master of leveraging influence. He waits until his opponent is at his weakest before making his final move. His methods can be brutal. At a 2015 meeting with EU leaders at which it was agreed to suppress migration from Syria, he said, according to the leaked minutes: "At any moment we can open the doors of Greece and Bulgaria and put refugees on buses... Therefore, how will you deal with refugees if you don't reach a deal? Are you going to kill the refugees?".
Luxembourg - where then European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker hailed from - was "the equivalent of a small town in Turkey", he scoffed.
In this context, the denial of Turkish approval for Swedish membership in NATO until just before the summit in Vilnius was to be expected. Erdogan is fighting for Turkish interests on three fronts: a stronger attack on the Turkish Kurds in Sweden, the lifting of the de facto veto of the US Congress on the sale of F16 bombers to Ankara; and in an unexpected twist demanding progress in Turkey's aspirations for visa-free travel within the EU.
In all three cases, he managed to make progress without having to set a precise date for the Turkish parliament to approve Sweden's NATO membership. Even now, not every piece of the puzzle is in place.
Sweden changed the constitution, changed the laws, significantly expanded its anti-terrorist cooperation against the PKK (Kurdish separatist group) and resumed arms exports to Turkey. It also agreed to present a road map "as a basis for the continued fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations" and confirmed that it would not provide support to the Kurdish group YPG/PYG in Syria.
Sweden has also confirmed - a word used to indicate no concessions have been made - that it will not support what Turkey calls the Fethullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), an entity the Turkish government considers a secret network led by Fethullah Gulen.
NATO also agreed to establish an anti-terrorism coordinator position. What is even more important is the fact that the Swedish courts have become harsher towards Swedish Kurds who break the law.
Regarding the F-16 aircraft, Turkish Defense Minister Jasar Guler spoke on Monday afternoon with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin. In a polished statement, the US Department of Defense announced that the two "praised the long history of military cooperation between the US and Turkey and welcomed continued close cooperation."
The announcement states: "They also discussed the positive talks between Turkey, Sweden and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, as well as the support of the US Department of Defense in order to modernize the Turkish army."
More importantly, Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a great friend of Greece, said he would decide within a week whether to lift his veto on the F-16s and noted a recent lull in Turkish bellicosity. according to Greece, and hoped that this was a "permanent reality".
He revealed that Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has been pushing the issue for a long time.
There are few in NATO who like Erdogan's self-righteousness and use of influence, but their distaste for his methods pales in comparison to the reward he receives.
The six-billion contract, which is stalled from 2021, would include the sale of 40 jets as well as modernization kits for 79 warplanes already in the inventory of the Turkish Air Force Command.
It remains questionable how much progress Erdogan has made regarding Turkey's EU membership, but the Turkish president probably knew that it was unrealistic to expect that. It is more likely that he set his sights on renegotiating the customs union agreement and visa-free travel. As the influence of the right grows in Spain, France, Germany and Scandinavia, political resistance to such deals will be enormous.
Charles Michel, president of the European Council, diplomatically praised the "good meeting" with Erdogan, adding casually that they "explored opportunities for cooperation between Turkey and the EU and for boosting relations."
There are few in NATO who like Erdogan's self-righteousness and use of influence, but their dislike of his methods pales in comparison to the reward he receives. They will be happy in Sweden too.
A Pew Center survey of 24 countries released Monday found that Sweden's relationship with Russia stands out. A staggering 98% of people have a negative view of Russia, 78% have a positive view of NATO, while 92% have no confidence in how Vladimir Putin is running world affairs. It's no wonder that after a full day of dizzying negotiations with Erdogan, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristerson was relieved to drink a celebratory drink in Vilnius late Monday evening.
The text is taken from "The Guardian"
Translation: N. Bogetić
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