Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy left the NATO summit with new confirmations of arms deliveries. What does this mean for Ukraine? What scenarios for the protection of Ukraine are being considered further?
How to provide Ukraine with guarantees of permanent security is a much-discussed question. From bilateral agreements to full membership - one can imagine different paths to the goal of deterring Russia from further attacks on that country.
Long-term safety guarantees
At the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12, the countries of the G7 group unanimously expressed their readiness to pave the way for long-term security guarantees as well as new arms deliveries to Ukraine. Those "guarantees" cannot be compared to the case of an attack on the Alliance under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, explains Ajlin Matle, a researcher at the Center for Security and Defense of the German Society for Foreign Policy.
Instead, these are important measures to strengthen Ukraine as a sovereign state. This includes cooperation between secret services, support for the Ukrainian defense industry, training of soldiers or, quite generally, economic support.
Admittedly, the West has already helped Ukraine in the war against Russia, but now there are new elements.
"The political West is sending Russia a signal that it is willing to support Ukraine not only now, but also in the medium and long term," explains Matle.
That signal is important. Because long-term support is exactly the opposite of what Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping for, namely that the countries that are now helping Ukraine will stop doing so one day.
Benjamin Talis of the same Society observes: "It is not the kind of security guarantee that will appease the Ukrainian people. They remember the Pesth Memorandum of 1994 when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the UK, US and Russia. It was clearly not enough to Russia is deterred from attacking."
Israeli model
Therefore, Ukraine does not have atomic weapons, and this significantly distinguishes it from Israel, with which this Eastern European country has been often compared recently.
The "Israeli model" is not part of NATO - it is only supported by the US when it comes to security and weapons - and it works only because that country has an atomic bomb and its neighbors do not," says Talis.
NATO-Ukraine Council
Both Taloisi and Matleova believe that the establishment of the new NATO-Ukraine Council is a positive result of the just held summit. That body will enable Kyiv to talk on an equal footing with the 31 countries that are members of the Western Alliance.
NATO membership
Access to the Alliance would certainly be the strongest guarantee for Ukraine that it will be protected from Russia. Due to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, Russia's attack on that country would be treated as an attack on all its members and NATO would be obliged to support it.
But precisely because of this, Ukraine's full membership in NATO would be possible only when the war in Ukraine is over. The final statement of the summit mentions the perspective of Ukraine's accession to NATO. But that's all for now and there's no concrete plan for it.
Other scenarios
Benjamin Talis is convinced: "Aid to Ukraine is not a charity, but an investment in our secure future in Europe. We must make sure that we get a secure European security model that works."
He considers security agreements with the countries of the G7 group to be insufficient, just as he also believes that there will be no imminent accession of Ukraine to NATO. That is why he proposes the following solution: "An effective security offer must essentially contain three things. First, it must protect Ukraine and deter Russia from further attacks. Second, it must contain the medium-term perspective of Ukraine's accession to NATO. And third, it must strengthen European security on a broad scale. basis. Because it must also be in the interest of the countries that provide the guarantees."
This could specifically mean the expansion of the international "Joint Expeditionary Force" (JEF).
It has existed since 2014 and is led by Great Britain. If, for example, Ukraine, Poland and France joined these military units, says Talis, the JEF would become a pretty badass war machine that could intimidate Russia.
Bonus video:
