After the elections on Sunday, Spain could get a right-wing government, half a century after Franco

Parliamentary elections will be held in Spain on Sunday, July 23, after which another member of the European Union could get a right-wing government.

Two right-wing and two left-wing parties will fight to form a potential coalition government for Spain, which currently holds the EU presidency.

Polls show that the conservative opposition People's Party of Albert Feiž will win, but will not have an absolute parliamentary majority, so the government could be formed with the far-right Vox party.

Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called snap elections after his Socialist Workers Party and smaller coalition partner, the left-wing Podemos (United We Can), suffered heavy defeats in local and regional elections at the end of May.

The most votes in those elections were won by the People's Party, which polls give an advantage in the parliamentary elections as well.

The People's Party and Vox have reached an agreement on joint government in about 140 cities since May, as well as in three regions, and Feižo did not rule out cooperation at the national level as well.

Such a coalition would return the far right to Spain's government for the first time since the democratic transition following the death of fascist leader Francisco Franco in 1975 and his 40-year rule.

Feijo, a former director of the state health service and the national postal company, won four consecutive regional elections in Galicia, a traditional stronghold of the People's Party. His popularity has skyrocketed since he took over the party leadership in April 2022.

Polls show that Vox could win third place in the parliamentary elections, which would mean that its leader Santiago Abascal would have a crucial role in the formation of the government.

Vox opposes abortion rights, denies climate change and rejects the need for the government to fight gender-based violence.

Although economic growth, a drop in unemployment and inflation, and an increase in pensions and the minimum wage could favor Sánchez, analysts estimate that the main motive for the vote will not be the economy, but the removal of Sánchez from power.

During the campaign, the People's Party pointed out that Sánchez formed a government with Podemos even though he previously rejected such a possibility, that he freed nine Catalan separatists even though he said he would not do it, and that under his rule a law was adopted that freed 100 sex offenders earlier and more than 1.000 received reduced sentences.

What could change predictions is the new Sumar movement, which brings together 15 small leftist pariahs, including Podemos, under the leadership of the increasingly popular Labor Minister Yolanda Díaz. If that movement finishes in third place instead of Vox, it could support the Socialists in forming a new left-wing government.

With the government of the People's Party and Vox, the European Union would gain another right-wing member in power, after Sweden, Finland and Italy. Other countries, such as Germany and France, are concerned about the consequences such a change would have on the EU's immigration and climate policies. Spain took over the Presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 July.