The most difficult period of the war for Ukrainians

Weeks after the start of Ukraine's counteroffensive, Western officials are speaking of "sobering" assessments of the ability of Ukrainian forces to retake significant swaths of territory. This was stated by four American and Western officials familiar with the latest intelligence data for CNN.

"They will see, in the next few weeks, whether there is a chance for them to make some progress. But I think it is extremely difficult for them to make progress that would change the balance of the conflict," a senior Western diplomat told CNN.

"Our briefings are serious. They remind us of the challenges they face," said Michael Quigley, a Democrat and member of the House of Representatives from Illinois who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. "This is the most difficult period of the war".

The main challenge for Ukrainian forces is the constant difficulty in breaking through the Russian multi-layered defense lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are riddled with tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces there suffered heavy losses, which is why Ukrainian commanders kept some units in order to regroup and reduce casualties, writes CNN.

The latest assessments represent a significant change from expectations at the start of the counteroffensive, which were "unrealistic", and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine to start peace talks, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions

"The Russians have a series of defense lines and Ukrainian forces haven't actually gone through the first line yet," said a senior Western diplomat.

"Even if they continue to fight in the next few weeks, if they haven't been able to make more breakthroughs in the last seven, eight, how likely are they suddenly, with even more depleted forces, to do so? Because the conditions are really difficult." , he added.

A senior U.S. official said the U.S. recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, but hopes for renewed progress.

"All of us, including the Ukrainians, know that this is going more difficult and slower than anyone would like, but we still believe that there is time and space for progress," said this official.

Several officials said the approach of autumn, when weather conditions are expected to worsen, leaves Ukrainian forces with limited room to advance.

In addition, Western officials say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized combat units, sometimes with as little as eight weeks of training on Western tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one of the reasons why Ukrainian forces are attacking more often inside Russian territory "to try to show Russian vulnerability," a US military official said.

The commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, told the Chief of the Joint Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milli, that the Ukrainian forces are creating the conditions for the advance step by step. Zaluznyi told Mili that Ukraine's defense is solid, according to CNN.

"Our soldiers are doing their best. The enemy is conducting active attacks in several directions, but it is not succeeding," Zaluzhny told Mili, as reported by the Ukrainian government.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will fuel a "blame game" between Ukrainian officials and their Western backers

Speaking about the situation in the south, where Ukrainian forces are struggling to make progress, Zaluzhnyi said: "Heavy fighting continues, Ukrainian troops step by step continue to create conditions for advancement. The initiative is on our side."

CNN points out that the latest estimates are a significant change from the optimism at the beginning of the counteroffensive. Officials cited say those expectations were "unrealistic" and are now adding to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to start peace talks, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

"Putin is waiting for it. He can sacrifice people and buy time," Quigley said.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will fuel a "blame game" between Ukrainian officials and their Western backers, which could create divisions within an alliance that has remained largely intact after nearly two years of war. "The problem, of course, is the possibility of a blame game because the Ukrainians would then blame us," said a senior Western diplomat.

At the Security Forum in July in Aspen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to the slow delivery of more advanced weapons systems from the West as the reason for the slow progress of Ukrainian forces so far.

"We planned to start a counter-offensive in the spring, but we couldn't. Honestly, we didn't have enough ammunition and weapons, and we didn't have enough well-trained brigades. I mean, adequately trained for these weapons," Zelenski said.