Who will expand first, Russia or the EU?

Putin's warmongering of the country has forced European Union leaders to draw up their own expansion plans. Steps are now being taken to admit as many as eight new members to the bloc of 27 states, but the historic aspiration towards expansion carries risks for the EU, writes "Politiko".

The admission of new members, potentially Ukraine, would open a Pandora's box of challenges, the Brussels portal assesses.

"Extensive internal reforms would be needed, and this would likely trigger years of toxic conflict between current EU members," the analysis points out. It added that, however, despite the painful complexity of any enlargement process, Russian aggression had convinced some EU governments that they could not afford to wait.

"Now is the moment to be brave and to change our approach to enlargement - to clearly bring the six countries of the Western Balkans, each of them, and Ukraine and Moldova, into our family," Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg told Politico.

"Enlargement is not a bureaucratic undertaking... It is about exporting and preserving a certain model of life of free, open Western democracies."

Enlargement is expected to be one of the topics European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will address in her annual State of the EU speech on September 13. The bloc's European affairs ministers are also due to discuss the topic at a meeting in late October, according to two senior EU diplomats.

Now is the moment to clearly introduce the six countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova, into our family, said Schallenberg.

"Politico" assesses that it is of key importance that, it seems, Germany and France are in agreement with that plan and recalls the statement of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this year for an "enlarged" Europe, as well as the optimistic signals from Paris, where Europe Minister Laurence Boone said the EU should send a "consistent message" to candidate countries about joining the Union, particularly to help them resist Russian influence campaigns.

Seven-year term

One of the issues is timing. EU Council President Charles Michel has called for new members to be admitted to the bloc by 2030. French President Emmanuel Macron supports the idea of ​​phased enlargement, with countries first gaining access to the single market before becoming full EU members.

Schallenberg raised the possibility of allowing candidate countries to be observers in the EU's Political and Security Committee (PSC), the Brussels-based body where foreign policy decisions are made, to make them "part of our thinking and decision-making".

"Politiko" states that EU leaders, if they want to realize their ambitions, will face a painful process. He foresees a heated debate between European capitals as officials assess the suitability of candidate countries and cites massive corruption in Ukraine as an example of the problem. And there is also, as he states, the nightmarish prospect of reforming the EU's internal decision-making processes in order to adapt to a much larger bloc.

No sooner had Michel set his target date of 2030 than a spokesman for the European Commission, which is responsible for assessing the readiness of candidate countries, quickly played down enthusiasm for such a quick deadline, saying the EU accession process was based solely on merit. The commission is due to present progress reports on candidate countries later this year, although a senior EU diplomat said this was likely to be delayed due to intense scrutiny of Ukraine's bid.

Corruption

"We want to send a positive signal to Ukraine, but things like this proposal to give Ukraine's intelligence services more powers around corruption could send the wrong message," said one Western European diplomat. At the same time, Ukraine was a "very corrupt country."

During her visit to Kyiv yesterday, German Foreign Minister Analena Berbock said that Ukraine's place is in the EU, but she called on it to do more in the fight against corruption, Reuters reported.

Politico says agricultural policy is the most obvious flashpoint in future accession talks between Brussels and Kiev, adding that cheap Ukrainian grain exports could flood the EU and drown the bloc's heavily subsidized farmers. Poland and several other EU countries have already closed the door to Ukrainian grain exports to protect their farmers.

Internal reforms that enlargement would trigger include: reforming the EU's common agricultural policy, overhauling the bloc's long-term budget and changes to the decision-making process to move towards greater use of so-called "qualified majority" voting in areas such as foreign policy, where unanimity is currently required.

"What we see... is that the current framework, whether it's about the budget or the policy or the decision-making procedures, is not suitable for a Europe of 27 members," said Portuguese Europe Minister Tiago Antunes. "Sometimes it's very, very difficult, as you know, even at XNUMX," he added.

A major expansion in the EU would also shift the bloc's center of gravity to the east, potentially diluting the traditionally decisive influence of France and Germany on key decisions, writes the analysis of the Brussels portal.

A group of EU lawmakers are already drafting far-reaching plans for the treaty changes they say would be needed for enlargement. However, changing the EU's fundamental treaties is a painstaking process that requires referendums in several countries. "Politico" writes that such readiness is somewhat limited among EU diplomats, some of whom claim that the reforms can be implemented within the bloc's existing Lisbon Agreement.

"There is no majority in the Council to change the treaty," said one EU diplomat. "The legal service of the Council has been informing us for months that the Lisbon Treaty is resistant to enlargement," he added.

"It's hard not to be impatient"

"Politiko" also states that despite the intense focus on Ukraine, smaller countries aspiring to membership are persistently knocking on the door of the bloc.

Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani, whose country formally applied for full EU membership last year, cautiously welcomed the fact that enlargement is back on the agenda. "We believe that it is in the interest of all the countries of the Western Balkans to join," said Osmani.

However, she added that countries are not willing to wait forever for the EU to make a decision. "It's hard not to be impatient, especially when you do everything that is asked of you, and then nothing happens," added the President of Kosovo.