A risky fight for votes

Poland's ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is fighting for political survival ahead of next month's elections, and the alliance with Ukraine has been targeted in its fight for votes.

The latest blow was delivered by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who said that Poland was suspending the delivery of its weapons to Ukraine.

"We are no longer sending weapons to Ukraine, because now we are arming Poland with more modern weapons," Morawiecki told Polish television station Polsat.

Poland holds parliamentary elections on October 15, and PiS must shore up support among rural voters and win over supporters of the far-right Confederation party, which criticizes the government for what it sees as a servile attitude toward Ukraine.

The Confederation, capitalizing on voter fatigue from the war in the neighborhood, is in third place in many polls and could have a decisive influence on the formation of a governing coalition. Analysts say that the tightening of PiS's rhetoric on Ukraine is a response to the rise in popularity of the Confederation.

After years of conflict with the EU and other key allies, Poland's strong support for Ukraine has changed the narrative in Brussels and Washington.

Poland has sent most of its Soviet-era tanks, fighters and other weaponry to Ukraine and has little left in stock. Warsaw will also continue to allow arms shipments from other allies to pass through its territory.

Government spokesman Piotr Miller said that Poland continues to fulfill existing contracts on military supplies to Ukraine.

Marek Swierzynski, an analyst at the Politika Insight think tank, said that while it is probably true that Poland currently has no more weapons for Ukraine, Morawiecki must have known the timing of his comments.

"In my opinion, it's more of an escalation of the campaign... to win a few percent more of the anti-Ukrainian electorate in Poland," he told Reuters.

Wheat as a trigger

Poland has been one of Ukraine's strongest allies since Russia launched its invasion, but the two countries have clashed over grain imports. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have closed their markets for the import of Ukrainian grain in violation of the rules of the single market of the European Union, with the explanation that they need to protect their farmers from falling prices.

Ukraine retaliated by filing a complaint against them with the World Trade Organization. She also threatened to block the export of some Polish agricultural products to Ukraine.

During his speech at the United Nations, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the "political theater" surrounding grain imports only helps Moscow. On Wednesday, Poland summoned the Ukrainian ambassador because of Zelensky's comments, and Morawiecki described relations with Kiev as "difficult".

According to a poll by the "Politiko" portal, PiS has the support of 38 percent of voters, and the Civic Coalition, the leading opposition party, has 29 percent of support. If this remains the case, PiS will not have enough seats in parliament to govern independently and will have to form a coalition, possibly with the Confederation, although the party says it will not join forces with PiS.

The government has been hit by a scandal involving the granting of visas for bribes, which is why the European Commission is now asking for explanations. A new poll by United Surveys shows that if the main opposition parties unite, they could form a majority government after the October 15 election.

Difficult to explain the change to voters

The turn around Ukraine could help strengthen a part of the PiS voter base, but it could cause other problems, Politiko assesses, stressing that it undermines the government's main foreign policy victory.

After several years of conflicts with the EU and other key allies over the rule of law, media freedom and deviation from democratic standards, Poland's strong support for Ukraine has changed the narrative in Brussels and Washington, the Brussels portal reminds.

Millions of ordinary Poles helped Ukrainians fleeing across the border when the Russian invasion began. The Polish government sent tanks and planes to Ukraine at a time when many other countries were reluctant to send such equipment to Kiev, fearing Russian retaliation. Warsaw was also happy to point out the shortcomings of European countries such as Germany and France.

Zelensky even called Poland "sister".

Polls show that there is still strong support for sending aid to Ukraine, with around three-quarters of Poles wanting to accept refugees.

"The risk is that PiS voters largely support pro-Ukrainian policies, and such a quick policy change could be difficult to explain," says Jacek Kuharčik, head of the Warsaw Institute for Public Relations.

PiS has played on skepticism towards Ukraine in the past, raising the issue of the wartime massacre of Poles by Ukrainian nationalist guerrillas, but the main message was that Poland is Ukraine's staunchest friend.

The Kremlin welcomed the change in narrative

During his visit to New York, Polish President Andrzej Duda compared Ukraine to a drowning man.

"A drowning man is extremely dangerous because he can pull you into the depths... he can simply drown the rescuer," said Duda.

This was approved by the Kremlin.

"Never before have I agreed with Duda as strongly as after this statement. Everything he said is true," said the spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova.

The Polish opposition also went on the attack.

Radoslav Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister and now a member of the European Parliament on behalf of the Civic Coalition, said Morawiecki's comments were "criminally stupid."

"Even if we don't have much more to give, why is he saying that in public! Does he really want (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to reckon that it only takes one or two more strikes for Ukraine to fall?” Sikorski said.