"We are a peaceful country. We will not send a single bullet to Ukraine".
That was Robert Fitz's message to supporters at one of the pre-election rallies ahead of the September 30 election, in which the populist former prime minister is the favorite.
If he fulfills his promise, it will be a big change for Slovakia, which until now has been a staunch ally of neighboring Ukraine in its war against Russia. Bratislava has sent weapons and offered strong political support for Ukraine's membership in the European Union and NATO.
"They will certainly have to sit down and come to an agreement," Fico said of the warring parties. "Russia will never leave Crimea, it will never leave the territories it controls".
Although Fico's victory is not guaranteed, his rhetoric during the campaign has worried Slovakia's allies, according to senior Western diplomats. He criticized sanctions against Russia, called for a rapprochement with Moscow when the war ends and vowed to block Ukraine's NATO membership if that possibility ever arose.
Fico (59) said during the campaign that the war "started in 2014 when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started killing Russian citizens in Donbass and Luhansk", which is how Moscow justifies its support for the separatists who conquered the territory in the east of Ukraine.
Fitz's main rival is the liberal pro-Western, economic reformist Progressive Slovakia (PS) party of Mihal Šimečka (39), who graduated from Oxford with a degree in political science. Šimečka, who is the vice-president of the European Parliament, warned that the policies promoted by Fico would push Slovakia into isolation and promised to continue supporting Ukraine.
Slovak voters are tired of the economic woes caused by covid restrictions, high inflation linked to the war in Ukraine and the rise of illegal immigration. Disinformation on social media has exacerbated divisions among voters and contributed to public skepticism about supporting Ukraine, according to sociologists.
"We should not support them (Ukraine) with weapons because evil only creates more evil," pensioner Eleonora Tanatsova (68) told Reuters. "This war will never end if we continue to support them."
In two of the last four polls, Fico's SMER-SSD party was in a narrow lead over the PS. In the last survey conducted by the AKO agency, the PS had a slight advantage with 18 percent of support. SMER-SD had 17,7 percent, 1,7 percentage points less than in mid-September.
A government led by Fico's party could somehow align Slovakia with neighboring Hungary, which is at odds with its Western partners over a range of issues from the rule of law to Ukraine.
Fitz's pragmatism during previous mandates, when he brought Slovakia into the eurozone and avoided disputes with EU and NATO partners, alleviates some concerns.
Fico resigned in 2018 after protests against corruption following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kucijak and his fiancee. He has adopted more pro-Russian views, reinforced by misinformation on social media, in opposition to the center-right coalition that has ruled since 2020. The coalition collapsed last year and was replaced by a technical mandate government.
"We reject statements and views that the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict is our conflict," Fico told Reuters via email.
Political analyst Grigory Mesezhnikov says that Fico, despite his fiery rhetoric, has previously avoided unnecessary conflicts with Brussels or NATO allies, but that he would be encouraged by an alliance with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
"Orban managed to at least complicate the adoption of the sanctions package (against Russia) ... Fico will do the same. They will support each other," said Mesezhnikov, president of the Institute for Public Affairs from Bratislava.
"He will stop sending weapons (to Ukraine), he gets support for that".
Fico criticized the passage of migrants through Slovakia and said in a televised debate on Tuesday that he would immediately introduce border controls with Hungary.
As the Ukrainian offensive has not yet made a major breakthrough, raising questions about how much more financial and military aid the allies will provide, EU and NATO leaders are trying to maintain a united front against Moscow, writes Reuters.
Brussels is worried, but it has a way to influence
Fico faced criminal charges in 2022 for using sensitive information about political opponents. The charges, which he denied, were dropped, although the investigation continues. Fico demanded the dismissal of the special state prosecutor who deals with high-level corruption cases. Any such steps would be closely monitored by Brussels, which could withhold financial support - as is the case with Poland and Hungary - if it judges them to be in conflict with the rule of law, an EU diplomat told Reuters.
Slovakia is in dire need of financial support given the forecast fiscal deficit of 6,85 percent of GDP this year, the largest in the Eurozone.
Ukrainian officials say they are worried about the possibility of a coalition with Orban within the EU, but note that Hungary does not usually compromise on important decisions, so limited foreign policy influence is expected if Fico wins.
A survey of public opinion across Eastern and Central Europe showed that only 40 percent of Slovaks blame Russia for the war in Ukraine, while 51 percent believe that either Ukraine or the West is "primarily responsible."
Katarina Klingova from the Globsec Institute says that Slovakia has long been fertile ground for pro-Russian narratives, thanks to its historical affinity, low trust in public institutions and politicians who have moved once marginal narratives into the political mainstream.
"We saw that these narratives were on the edge of the information spectrum (2015), but now in almost every debate on TV there is a political representative who uses disinformation narratives," said Klingova.
"They don't necessarily support the Kremlin... but they definitely go hand in hand with Russia".
More than 40.000 Slovaks signed petitions in early 2023 not to be called up in the event of mobilization, following false posts on social media that invitations to participate in the war in Ukraine may be in the offing. The fraud was exposed, but the reaction showed how strong the influence of false information about the Ukrainian war is among the 5,5 million inhabitants of Slovakia.
"Russia rejoices"
"Thanks to widespread public dissatisfaction with the clashes between pro-Western Slovak politicians who came to power in 2020, and deep sources of genuine pro-Russian sentiment dating back to the 19th century, Russia is knocking on an open door," writes the New York Times.
"Russia is rejoicing," said Rastislav Kacher, a former foreign minister and outspoken supporter of Ukraine. "Slovakia is a great success story in terms of its propaganda. She worked hard and very successfully to use my country to cause division in Europe," he told the American newspaper.
A survey of public opinion across Eastern and Central Europe conducted by Globsec in March showed that only 40 percent of Slovaks blame Russia for the war in Ukraine, while 51 percent believe that either Ukraine or the West is "primarily responsible." In Poland, 85 percent blame Russia. In the Czech Republic, 71 percent believe that Russia is responsible.
Daniel Milo, director of the Department of Countering Disinformation and Other Non-Military Threats at the Interior Ministry, agrees that there is fertile ground for pro-Russian sentiment in Slovakia, but adds that Russia and its local backers have used genuine sympathy rooted in history to sow division and influence on public opinion about Ukraine.
Among those helpers are Hlavne Spravi, a popular anti-American portal, and the biker group "Brother for Brother", which is connected to the Russian motorcycle club close to the Kremlin "Night Wolves".
A freelance journalist for the Hlavne Spravi portal, Bohuš Grabar, was convicted of espionage this year after he was caught on camera accepting money from a Russian military attaché, who was later expelled.
Brat za Brata, which has a large following on social media and close ties to the Russian embassy, meanwhile works to intimidate critics of Russia.
Peter Kalmus, a 70-year-old Slovak artist, said last month he was beaten by members of the biker gang after he desecrated a Soviet-era monument in the eastern city of Košice to protest Russian atrocities in Ukraine. In March, bikers wreaked havoc at a government-sponsored public debate on the war in a town near the Ukrainian border attended by Kacer, then a minister. Fierce supporters of Russia, who were brought in by bikers on buses, "jumped onto the stage screaming and spitting at us," Kacer said.
"Lies and Propaganda"
Grigori Mesezhnikov, who was born in the Soviet Union, says that many Slovaks "have in their heads a fictional romantic vision of Russia that does not actually exist" and are easily swayed by "lies and propaganda" about the West.
That, he added, made the country vulnerable to Moscow's efforts to exploit pro-Russian sentiment in hopes of undermining European unity over Ukraine. Slovakia is a small country, Mesezhnikov said, but "if you take out even a small brick from the wall, it can collapse."
Luboš Blaha, former member of a heavy metal band and author of books on Lenin and Che Guevara, and now deputy leader of SMER, is also one of the most influential pro-Kremlin voices on social media and regularly denounces the liberal president of Slovakia, Zuzana Čaputova, as a "fascist", and pro-Ukrainian ministers as "American puppets".
"The mood in Europe is changing," Blaha said in an interview, describing the conflict in Ukraine as a "war of the American empire against the Russian empire" that is unwinnable because Russia is a nuclear power.
Insisting that he is not rooting for Russia, but only for the national interests of his country, Blaha predicts that countries opposed to arming Ukraine will soon "be in the majority, while supporters of Ukraine will be in a small minority," especially if Donald Trump wins the next presidential election in the USA.
In the run-up to Slovakia's elections, the usually peaceful country has been engulfed by fierce accusations from all sides of foreign interference. Fico accused NATO of meddling in the campaign, while his enemies pointed the finger at Russia.
Describing the SMER party as Russia's "Trojan horse," Jaroslav Nagy, the former defense minister who led the drive to send weapons to Ukraine, said this summer that, according to intelligence reports, a Slovakian national, whom he did not identify, visited Russia "to receive financial funds in favor of SMER". But, citing confidentiality, he provided no evidence and his claims were dismissed as campaign libel.
The coalition will depend on the results of the smaller parties
A poll conducted between September 20 and 26 showed that SMER and PS will each win 30 seats in the 150-member parliament, well short of a majority, and will need coalition partners to govern. However, election campaigns in Slovakia often lead to dramatic last-minute reversals and coalition formation will be complex due to the complicated voting system. In third place in the polls is the moderate left-wing Glas party of Peter Pellegrini, a former member of SMER-SSD and prime minister from 2018 to 2020. He is still keeping his options open, but is considered to be closer to Fitz.
According to polls, the far-right Republika party, led by former members of the openly neo-Nazi Our Slovakia party, which opposes both EU and NATO membership, is likely to win fourth place. The ultra-nationalist Slovak National Party could also be in Fico's possible coalition.
Four other political groups and parties could pass the five percent threshold necessary to enter the parliament. Their results will be crucial for the chances of SMER, that is, PS, to form a coalition.
Whatever the outcome, what is certain is that Fico is once again an important player and the politics he represents are back in vogue. This, as the "Guardian" assesses, is an indication of how confused politics has become and how much faith in liberal democracy has been broken in the heart of Europe.
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