If the European Union wants to become irrelevant as a global geopolitical player, this week's chaotic response to Hamas' gruesome massacres of Israeli civilians in southern Israel is the way to go. Fortunately, Europe has largely managed to remain more united and effective in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression. But the confusion surrounding the latest Israeli-Palestinian crisis is more typical of the interstate, political and influence struggles that are hampering efforts to project a coherent European foreign policy and exert influence in the world, or even on Europe's doorstep.
Condemning the indiscriminate slaughter of men, women and children by the Palestinian Islamist group, including babies and the elderly, EU officials publicly contradicted each other on a daily basis. They argued over whether to suspend aid payments to the Palestinians of 691 million euros and whether Israel's cutoff of electricity, water and fuel to the Gaza Strip violates international law.
European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Oliver Varhelji, on Monday announced the suspension of aid, apparently without consulting its colleagues or member states. The commission reversed its decision within hours.
EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borel, said on Tuesday that Israel's cut-off of water, electricity and fuel in the Gaza Strip could constitute a violation of international humanitarian law. Moreover, he said that the EU will have to provide more, not less, support to the Palestinians.
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Lajen, attempted to resolve the humiliating discrepancy by issuing an unreservedly pro-Israel statement. She said humanitarian aid to the Palestinians would continue, but that some of the financial aid would be reviewed to ensure it never went to Hamas. She did not mention violations of international law.
"There can only be one answer to that," von der Leyen said in a statement about Hamas' attack on Israeli towns and villages. "Europe is with Israel. And we fully support Israel's right to defend itself.” In a veiled allusion to the confusion in her own executive body, she added: “In the coming days we must be united and coordinated.
That is unlikely. The differences demonstrated at the highest levels of the EU reflect long-standing divisions between and within European countries over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which they could barely disguise for a momentary show of unity after Hamas's barbaric attack. Hard-left parties in France and Spain have refused to call Hamas' actions "terrorist," and have largely criticized Israel's response. The crisis, which has sparked hundreds of anti-Semitic attacks in France since last Saturday, could lead to the collapse of France's precarious left-wing opposition alliance.
Varhelji, a right-wing nationalist ally of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, showed the unconditional support for Israel that prevails in most of central Europe and, for historical reasons, in Germany, Von der Leyen's native country. Borel, a Spanish socialist, embodies longstanding pro-Palestinian sympathies in southern Europe and on the left.
These different sympathies are further reinforced by the daily wars that affect the EU institutions. Varhelji's department is responsible for the so-called southern neighborhood and therefore administers aid to the Palestinians. Borel should be the "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the EU", and therefore lead its Middle Eastern diplomacy. But in the end, no one is in charge.
The differences demonstrated at the highest levels of the EU reflect long-standing rifts between and within European countries over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Von der Leyen took office announcing that she would lead a "geopolitical commission" and led the EU's decisive response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and hinted at a tougher policy toward China. But she and the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, lead a four-year struggle for supremacy in foreign policy, which turned into occasional unpleasant public quarrels.
The EU - Israel's largest trading partner and the largest donor of aid to the Palestinians - has repeatedly tried to participate in the establishment of peace in the Middle East since 1980, when the leaders of the then nine-member European Economic Community adopted the Venice Declaration, which first called for Palestinian self-determination, and for the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to join the peace talks with Israel. This was long before the United States accepted the two-state solution.
However, Israel has always rejected a role for the EU, relying instead on its guardian superpower, the US, to broker deals with Arab states, seeing the EU, and France in particular, as harboring a pro-Palestinian bias. The EU did secure a place alongside the US, Russia and the UN in the so-called Quartet of Middle East negotiators, which has been trying to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process for the past 20 years. But that effort did not bear fruit, as Israel relentlessly increased the number of settlements in the West Bank amid sporadic outbreaks of Palestinian violence.
Without success in the Balkans as well
The lack of credibility of EU foreign policy is by no means limited to the Middle East. Azerbaijan recaptured the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh last month in defiance of EU peace efforts. Its president then refused to attend the European Political Community summit in Spain, where the EU hoped to revive reconciliation talks with Armenia. Even in the Western Balkans, where the prospect of EU membership should give Brussels greater influence, the EU has been unsuccessful in repeated attempts to bring about normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo.
However, there is a great need for more effective European diplomacy in a world where the competition of great powers is increasingly crowding out multilateralism, leading to more armed conflicts and trade wars instead of seeking solutions through negotiations and respecting common rules. At the very least, this would mean that decisions on foreign policy and sanctions are made by majority vote instead of requiring unanimity at each stage, and that one person - the "minister of foreign affairs" - be responsible for foreign policy, humanitarian, financial and development aid. , including the "neighborhood" of the EU.
That would be politically difficult, but not impossible under the current EU agreement. The need to improve the Union's ability to make decisions and act quickly as it prepares to host candidates, including Ukraine, Moldova and six Western Balkan countries, should drive such reforms.
A united EU would have a better chance of helping persuade Israel, after decimating Hamas' military forces, to reopen talks on a two-state solution with a new generation of Palestinian leaders currently in prison
If the EU could overcome differing sympathies and institutional bickering, it would have a better chance of helping persuade Israel, after decimating Hamas' military forces, to reopen negotiations on a two-state solution with a new generation of Palestinian leaders currently in prison. Europe could play such a role only in cooperation with the US, not alone or against US efforts.
Europeans could offer financial incentives, trade benefits and peacekeeping forces for such a joint effort. That may seem like a distant prospect given the discord in the EU, the ultra-rightist character of the current Israeli government and the ineffectiveness of the defunct Palestinian Authority. But after a month or so of war, all sides may see the need for a peace initiative in which a more coherent Europe, for all its weaknesses, could play a useful supporting role.
The article is taken from "The Guardian"
Translation: A.Š.
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