Geert Wilders, the right-wing populist who won the elections in the Netherlands, will have to moderate his ideas such as banning the Koran, leaving the European Union and the complete suspension of foreign aid if he wants to form and lead a coalition government, according to Reuters.
Wilders, a political veteran who was kept out of power precisely because of his extreme views and has been under 24-hour police protection for years, won a clear mandate to lead negotiations on the formation of a government, winning 23 percent of the vote in Wednesday's election.
However, if he is to become prime minister, he will have to convince potential coalition partners that he is willing to compromise on his calls to withdraw military aid to Ukraine, cut spending on climate goals and to end constitutionally protected religious freedoms.
He needs the support of at least two moderate parties to get the necessary majority of 76 seats in the 150-seat parliament to form a right-wing government.
Much will depend on the willingness of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte's conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and Peter Omtzigt's centrist New Social Deal party, both largely pro-European, to cooperate with him.
Reuters recalls that Wilders has shaped Dutch politics from the opposition benches for years, using concerns about immigration and linking it to broader issues such as the cost of living, housing and health care.
Mainstream centrist parties have already adopted tougher immigration policies to lose votes to the right, but none of them have come close to Wilders' frequent calls for a total ban on migration.
The British agency estimates that because of the government led by Wilders, the image of the Netherlands in Brussels will probably change, as well as relations with certain EU partners, but it points out that the Dutch membership in the EU is not in question and that this is not something that Wilders' potential partners are ready to discuss. to negotiate.
"The Netherlands has always been seen as a transparent, open, innovative and prosperous country with a very open society, and this is suddenly a completely different story," Kies van Rij, a former diplomat and adviser on international affairs at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague, told Reuters. . "The question is whether there will really be a change or in the end, as is often the case in the Netherlands, a compromise will be reached and transitional solutions will be found," he added.
Wilders is expected to likely oppose the admission of Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans to the European Union
The Dutch are known for their pragmatic politics, open economy and centuries of foreign trade. Under Rutte, the longest-serving prime minister in the country's history, the Netherlands was seen as a stable, predictable EU partner in turbulent times.
His comments about Islam and the Prophet Muhammad resulted in death threats. Fatwas were issued against him and he is forced to live under constant police protection.
Wilderas' victory stunned Dutch Muslims, who make up about 5 percent of the total population of 18 million. "These results are shocking for Dutch Muslims. We did not expect a party with a program that is against the basic principles of the rule of law to do so well," said Muhsin Kotas from the Muslim organization CMO.
"Regardless of what future coalition negotiations will look like, his victory will change the political discourse in the Netherlands and in Europe," Eurointelligence announced yesterday.
His party, among other things, promised to move the Dutch embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and immediately close the diplomatic representation in the "corrupt" Palestinian Authority.
Because of the slogan "Netherlands first" and the call to close the borders, Rene Kuperus from the Dutch Klingendal Institute said that this is a "Trump moment in Dutch politics".
“You can call this an earthquake. "No one expected this result... not even Wilders himself," he said.
A government led by Wilders could make the process of adopting EU policies more difficult in several areas.
If he becomes prime minister, Wilders could try to block an increase in payments to the EU budget, to which the Netherlands contributes significantly, and thus call into question the new money the EU wants to commit to Ukraine and migration management.
Wilders is also likely to join forces with Hungary in demanding a tougher EU stance on illegal migration and, like Slovakia, oppose providing more military equipment or money to Ukraine. During Rutte's tenure, the Netherlands sent seven billion euros to Kyiv, including F-16 bombers.
Ultimately, he would likely oppose the admission of Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans to the 27-member bloc. Everything depends on which of Wilders' campaign slogans will survive the coalition negotiations, Reuters points out.
Dilan Jesilgoz, who succeeded Rutte as head of the VVD party, said the night before the election that she would not serve in a cabinet in which Wilders would be prime minister, although she did not rule out the participation of her party.
Omtzigt, the leader of the New Social Contract party, said that he would not compromise with Wilders on ideas that would violate the Dutch constitution - especially the first words of the first article, which prohibit discrimination.
In previous years, Wilders said that he would abolish that article, ban Muslim women from wearing the veil, close mosques and Islamic schools, but in the meantime he showed a willingness to compromise with other political parties.
Right-wingers see Wilders' victory as a sign of a political upheaval in Europe
After his party more than doubled the number of deputies in the parliament, Wilders received congratulations yesterday from right-wingers from all over the continent. "Congratulations on a great success," said Alice Wedel, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), yesterday. "The whole of Europe wants a political upheaval," added Vedel, whose party, according to the latest surveys, has the support of about 20 percent of voters, which is twice as much as in the 2021 elections.
Wilders was also congratulated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who also opposes the support that the EU sends to Ukraine." "The winds of change are here," Orban wrote on the X social network.
Marine Le Pen, leader of France's right-wing National Assembly, said she was "delighted" by Wilders' victory. "Gert Wilders and his movement are allies of the National Gathering," said Le Pen. "They showed that more and more countries within the European Union are questioning the way it functions," added Le Pen.
Matteo Salvini, Italy's deputy prime minister and leader of the anti-immigrant League party, called Wilders a friend and ally of his party and said his victory showed that "a new Europe is possible."
Wilders was also congratulated on his victory by Harald Vilmski, a member of the European Parliament from the Austrian right-wing Freedom Party, who stated that he was "proud of his political friends and our alliance".
Tom Van Grieken of Belgium's right-wing party Vlams Belang said the results showed people were "craving real change". "Parties like ours come from all over Europe!" Van Grieken added.
"More and more Europeans are demanding on the streets and at the polling stations that their countries, borders and rights be defended," said Santiago Abascal, leader of the Spanish right-wing Vox party.
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