As Russian missiles and drones attacked Ukraine last month, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church celebrated Christmas on December 25 as it is celebrated in the West, instead of January 7 when it is celebrated in Russia, while Kiev is seeking help from the West for its security.
This winter is difficult for Ukraine as the attention of the world, especially the United States, is occupied by the Middle East and Gaza, and the Kremlin is again on the offensive while Kiev is struggling with a shortage of manpower and military supplies.
The price of war is rising for Russia as well. Commanders are apparently pushing an offensive on multiple fronts with heavy casualties for often limited gains. The latest such example is the destroyed town of Avdivka, a major target since October.
The British Ministry of Defense announced on December 30 that if the number of Russian casualties in Ukraine continues to rise daily at its current rate, Russia could lose half a million people by the end of 2024.
However, by then, some research shows that Donald Trump could be in the White House and probably end Washington's support for Ukraine. Many analysts expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch a new round of military mobilization after an expected election victory in March. His goal is to further repel Ukrainian forces or obtain concessions at the negotiating table.
The government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced that Russia fired more than 500 drones and missiles at Ukraine in the five days before January 2, one of the fiercest airstrikes since the start of the war in February 2022. A year ago, the opinion was held in the West that Ukraine gains the upper hand, but its position is now less certain.
Kiev maintains its position that its priority is to expel Russian forces from all the territories they occupied after the annexation of Crimea and parts of two other Russian-speaking regions in 2014. However, Ukrainian officials increasingly accuse the West of not committing resources to that ambition, although they publicly claim to support it. .
There is a lot of truth to that view - the military aid provided by the United States and its allies, from ammunition to body armor, tanks and drones, has been more limited in both quantity and effectiveness compared to what Western officials initially promised.
The United States pledged $46,3 billion in military aid and equipment to Ukraine from the start of the invasion to the end of October, more than double the $18 billion pledged by Germany. The next largest donor, the UK, contributed just under $7 billion, followed by smaller Nordic, Baltic and Eastern European countries, some of which now donate more than 2% of their gross domestic product directly to Ukraine.
Almost 45 percent of Ukrainians decided to celebrate Christmas exclusively on December 25 this year, while only 17 percent continued to celebrate on January 7.
In the first year of the war, American and to a lesser extent British aid was crucial - especially the anti-tank missiles that blocked Putin's offensive and efforts to take Kiev.
But as the war progresses and US political reluctance to send supplies to Ukraine grows, especially in Congress, Kiev's relationship with Europe and the European Union becomes increasingly important.
This points to growing suspicions that, regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November, the US is now a declining power in Europe and the fate of European member states rests in their hands.
Escape from Russia, acceptance of Europe
For Ukraine itself, where the final border will eventually be is perhaps less important than whether the pro-Western Ukrainian state survives the Russian attack, finally entering into a permanent and militarily defensible relationship with the West, and especially with Europe.
This is a struggle of identities, ideas and armies that has been going on for centuries, from the initial rise of Kievan Rus - in many respects the first real forerunners of what is modern Russia today - a thousand years ago, to its subjugation in recent centuries to Moscow and the Kremlin.
Until the Cold War, most in Ukraine and beyond believed that Ukraine and its Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking populations could be conquered forever. A number of senior Soviet officials - including leaders Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev - hailed from the region on the border of Russia and Ukraine, where Soviet rule seemed as secure as the dominance of Russian Orthodox Christianity centuries earlier.
Even after the fall of the USSR and the declaration of Ukrainian independence in 1991, surveys have shown that the Ukrainian population and political elite remain either uninterested or deeply divided over which path to choose, the one toward Russia or the West.
In the period 2004-5. and 2013-14, pro-Russian governments, both led by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, were ousted in pro-Western, anti-Putin "color revolutions" - the second coming almost immediately after the Kremlin annexed Crimea and at the start of conflict in Ukraine's Russian-speaking east Donbas region.
However, over the past decade, and especially since the start of the 2022 invasion, the regions of Ukraine still controlled by Kiev seem permanently committed to keeping the country facing the west.
Putin's invasion showed what he is willing to do. The question for 2024 is again whether the Kremlin believes it can completely defeat Ukraine and what NATO and the European Union are willing to do to prevent that.
From 2014 onwards, Washington and London have been the biggest allies of the governments in Kiev, providing military resources as well as training and deploying their troops, warships and aircraft to Ukrainian territory, expecting such moves to deter further aggression by the Kremlin.
During the first year when such an approach proved ineffective and after Russia launched an invasion, Britain and the US were at the helm of support for Kiev. More recently, however, the possible return of Trump, the political chaos in Britain and the decline in Western arms stockpiles have made it clear that pushing back Russia requires more than short-term moves.
The United States and Great Britain have signed several agreements on the production of weapons on their own and on the soil inside Ukraine. However, agreements with European producers, especially from Germany and the Baltic states, could create a long-term basis for the security of both Ukraine itself and the countries of the eastern wing of the EU.
In May 2022, a poll by the US National Democratic Institute showed enthusiasm within Ukraine for joining the EU at 90%, compared to only 73% expressing a desire to join NATO. During the war, the numbers for NATO rose to roughly the same level, but it remains to be seen how a Donald Trump administration would affect confidence in the military alliance.
For the people of Ukraine, the question of which states or structures in the West they must associate with in order to ensure lasting independence can be considered academic. However, the postponement of Christmas - and the now clear split between the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Russian Orthodox Church - is intended to show that it is a national and societal decision to permanently break with Kremlin influence.
Not everyone believes that success is guaranteed. According to a survey by the Deloitte agency, almost 45 percent of Ukrainians decided to celebrate Christmas exclusively on December 25 this year, while only 17 percent continued to celebrate on January 7. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church has made it clear that people can choose.
Almost a third of Ukrainians said they plan to celebrate both dates, at least for now. Thousands of them, perhaps more, are likely to die on the battlefield over the next year to help shape that decision for years to come.
The author is a Reuters columnist
Translation: N. Bogetić
Bonus video:
