For a brief moment last year, it looked like Ursula von der Leyen's bid for a second term as European Commission president might be in trouble.
During an unscheduled visit to Israel in October, she stood by Benjamin Netanyahu and expressed unreserved solidarity in the country's fight against Hamas.
Her statement would not have been disputed if it had come from an American president or, indeed, a German politician (which, after all, Von der Leyen was before she assumed her current position). However, coming from the head of one of the European Union's most powerful institutions on one of the bloc's most divisive topics, the statement provoked the strongest reaction during her four years in office.
Diplomats were furious that von der Leyen ignored a joint statement by EU foreign ministers outlining the bloc's position and calling on Israel to exercise restraint and respect international law. Around 800 employees of the Commission signed a letter criticizing its "unconditional", "uncontrolled" support for "one of the two sides" in the conflict. Joseph Borrell, Von der Leyen's chief diplomat, publicly criticized her for pretending to speak on behalf of the entire EU.
"She is behaving more and more like a queen," said an EU diplomat at the time, criticizing her for overstepping her authority, excluding EU governments from her decision-making process, and for managing the decree with a small group of advisers.
However, just a few months later, von der Leyen's position is rock solid again. Without apologizing or retracting her statement, she weathered the political storm and emerged, if not stronger than ever, at least unscathed. Not only is he the favorite for a second term at the head of the Commission; no other candidate has virtually any chance of unseating her when EU leaders meet in the summer to hand out top positions in the bloc.
The von der Leyen method
You can call it the von der Leyen method. The same arbitrariness that got her into trouble is helping her get out not only of this crisis, but of every other crisis in her more than 20 years in politics. In the face of criticism, von der Leyen takes an almost Trumpian defiance — standing tall and smiling until her critics falter.
In November, von der Leyen refused to confirm whether she would run again, but she gladly answered the question of "Politika" about what she would do during her second term, saying that she would "keep the direction of the road for big topics" from the current term - primarily for The Green Deal, digital transitions and resilience.
In the face of criticism, von der Leyen takes an almost Trumpian defiance — standing tall and smiling until her critics falter.
There are few EU officials and diplomats who seriously doubt that a second mandate is hers if she wants it. Criticism in Brussels has been silenced again, or at least retreated behind closed doors, as officials do not want to risk moving to the 13th floor of the Commission's headquarters where von der Leyen and her team have offices.
As she answered Politik's questions, something about her gaze left no doubt about her ambitions - or her belief that there is no one who can stop her. Although she will most likely be re-elected unopposed, there is still a chance that something unexpected will surprise her.
The big return to Brussels
Von der Leyen arrived in Brussels almost out of nowhere. When her name came up in 2019 during multiple rounds of bargaining after the European Parliament elections, she was something of a mystery outside of Berlin, where she was climbing the hierarchy of German politics under Chancellor Angela Merkel.
However, for von der Leyen, who was then the German defense minister, it was a homecoming. Her father Ernst Albracht was one of the first officials of the EU. She spent the first 13 years of her life in the Ixelles suburb of Brussels, in the shadow of the EU institutions, attending a European school. "Born in Brussels. A European at heart", is how she describes herself.
It was also an opportunity to abandon the sinking ship. Originally considered a protégé of Angela Merkel, her career has been derailed by a scandal surrounding the engagement of outside consultants in her ministry. Even as von der Leyen moved into the EU's top office, she faced a parliamentary inquiry at home, with MPs furious over the deletion of cellphones they claimed contained evidence of the case. It wouldn't be the last time she came under fire for missing messages.
She thinks she has no boss. If we cannot control her, she must be brought under control... We sent her a clear message that she has trustees, and that they are the ones who give her a mandate, said a French diplomat.
However, it wasn't long before the criticism died down. Von der Leyen has quickly turned her profile around in Brussels, becoming what many consider the most influential Commission president since Jacques Delors, a titan of European politics who died in December.
It is known that she sleeps in the headquarters of the Commission. Works overtime, including weekends. During missions abroad, she listens to reports while exercising to save time: and being a doctor by profession, the benefits of a healthy mind in a healthy body are clear to her.
Her grueling work hours and hectic travel schedules have become a joke in EU quarters, especially among her co-workers. Her performance under pressure confirmed her as a successful crisis management chief: dynamic, well-prepared, crucially connected to Washington, able to cut through the fog that sometimes envelops Brussels. As her character was tested first during the covid-19 pandemic and then during the war in Ukraine, she became the publicly recognizable face of the sometimes distant European bureaucratic machinery in major capitals across Europe.
No charismatic competition
It also helped that in the constellation of European power, the stars around her lacked brightness. German and French leaders are seen as arrogant, haughty, ineffective and boring. Her institutional rival, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, is seen in Brussels as distracted and prone to blunders, especially after the "soffagate" scandal in which, in an apparent attempt to outdo von der Leyen, he appeared sexist, ignorant and incompetent during his visit to Turkey - largely due to the way how von der Leyen behaved in that unpleasant situation.
It was "almost in the style of House of Cards," said Teresa Kuhn, a professor of European studies at the University of Amsterdam. "She used that opportunity to highlight herself, and he completely fell into the trap."
Michel announced on Saturday that he will run in June's European parliamentary elections, meaning he will almost certainly leave his current position in July.
Von der Leyen's problem is that her greatest strength is also her greatest weakness.
In managing his crises, he sometimes bypassed his own commissioners, or - what is more controversial - left out of the decisions national governments that are used to ruling in Brussels. For example, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Commission kept sanctions talks largely secret, coordinating with Paris, Berlin and Rome, but also Washington, and only presented the package at the last moment when member states were ready to consider it.
"The EU is always criticized for being slow," said Kunova. "Sometimes she really makes decisions too independently, but on the other hand, it's the most efficient way to get the job done."
Growing discontent
That may be true, but her monarchist approach and centralized instincts have also stirred passions in Brussels - and not least in the perennially disgruntled European Parliament, where lawmakers have always campaigned unsuccessfully for greater democratic oversight.
Several Commission officials told Politico that the style of von der Leyen and her team is met with grumbling at all levels of the EU's executive body. "It drives us all crazy," said one European Commission official, who wished to remain anonymous. "If there is one more term left, a clear signal will come from the building that things will have to change".
A bigger problem for von der Leyen is also growing discontent in European capitals, whose support she needs to secure a second term.
EU diplomats often struggle to keep up with Von der Leyen's announcements, from sanctions to China policy and relations with Great Britain, and more recently, her stance on Israel. "It works without official consultation with member states," said one EU official. "There was great understanding for this at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, but now patience is running out."
It is known that Ursula von der Leyen sleeps at the headquarters of the Commission. Works overtime, including weekends. During missions abroad, she listens to reports while exercising to save time: and since she is a doctor by profession, the benefits of a healthy mind in a healthy body are clear to her.
The Commission has been in dispute with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for a long time, who has not shied away from criticism. "How often does it seem to the public that Europe is governed by the Commission and its president," said Orban recently. "We think about her and read her statements as if the leader of Europe is speaking - and she is actually our employee, our paid employee, whose job is to implement what we decide."
Orban, who himself does not have the power to block her nomination, may be the only leader to publicly make such statements. However, as is often the case in Brussels, it is impossible to know how many others are hiding behind it.
According to several French officials, French President Emmanuel Macron is irritated by von der Leyen's constant demonstrations of independence. Her initiatives on the war between Israel and Hamas were considered a "pre-campaign", a "personal PR venture", said a French diplomat.
"She thinks she doesn't have a boss," that diplomat said. "If we cannot control her, she must be brought under control... We sent her a clear message that she has trustees, and that they are the ones who give her a mandate".
Such grumbling is unlikely to resonate as long as there is no other candidate around whom her opponents can rally. And whether someone will appear largely depends on the elections for the European Parliament, the results of which will show what the European mood is, which will help determine who should get leading positions in the bloc.
To take office, von der Leyen must be nominated by European leaders and confirmed by the European Parliament. She took office in 2019 with the support of self-proclaimed pro-EU EU parties: the conservative European People's Party, the Socialists and the liberal group Renewed Europe.
That gave her only a narrow majority: 383 votes, slightly above the minimum of 374. Given the rise of the far right across Europe, Von der Leyen may have trouble repeating that success. "There could be a real surprise," said a French member of the European Parliament from one of the pro-European parties. "If the coalition does not have enough votes this time, then there will be no majority," said the deputy. "And the subject of Von der Leyen will simply no longer exist. If we do not have a majority, then it will be impossible to rule. It is quite possible".
Similar comments are coming from European diplomats. "She is the favorite, there is no doubt... but considering the elections, it is too early to say with certainty whether she will be re-elected," said a diplomat from Central Europe.
"This time it may be very difficult to form a majority, and the majority may be very narrow, probably too narrow," said another diplomat. "I don't know how it will affect her re-election. It is clear that in such circumstances it is difficult to provide firm guarantees".
"Pfizergate" scandal
Above Von der Leyen's selection process stands the sword of Damocles in the form of a giant syringe. Although it remains a distant possibility, the big news in the so-called "Fizergate" scandal could have the potential to change the discussion entirely.
In the first months of this year, a decision is expected in the lawsuit brought by the "New York Times" against the European Commission because it did not provide access to the text messages exchanged between Von der Leyen and Albert Burla, CEO of the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer.
In the past, the EU has always been criticized for being slow. Urusla von der Leyen sometimes really makes decisions too independently, but on the other hand it is the most efficient way to get the job done
The disagreements date back to 2021, when, according to the New York Times, von der Leyen and Albert Burla personally negotiated a vaccine deal, in which Pfizer agreed to deliver 900 million doses to EU countries, which is enough to vaccinate the entire bloc. three times, with the option to buy that amount again.
Before that, the EU had two agreements with Pfizer and BioNTek. However, this deal was unprecedented in its scale. Previous agreements were concluded through a complicated negotiation process in which a committee with representatives of all 27 EU countries participated, as well as with selected negotiators. In this case, Von der Leyen allegedly agreed on the main items in direct communication with Burl via text messages.
According to a person familiar with the negotiations, the Commission then presented those conditions to European capitals, which agreed to them, paving the way for an official agreement.
The commission denied journalists access to the text messages, claiming that if they existed, they could not find them. A number of watchdog agencies have also tried to shed light on the subject, but to no avail. The special parliamentary committee that investigated the pandemic and that tried to bring the president of the Commission before the committee to answer questions, did not receive further clarifications.
"We are talking about billions of profits that these vaccine manufacturers have received," said Belgian politician Kathleen van Brempt, who chaired the special committee.
This member of parliament said that she does not think that the President of the Commission is personally corrupt in any way, but the secrecy undermined the democratic oversight: "I am not against profit, but things should be transparent, clear and should be in accordance with the rules. And that was not the case".
In her characteristic way, von der Leyen refused to speak on the subject - even in front of the cameras.
So far, it has proven to be a winning strategy. The scandal did not reverberate beyond journalists in Brussels and anti-vaxxers. "The Brussels arena is not an arena that is under the supervision of a wide audience," said Tis Klausen, head of corporate and public affairs at PR firm Fleischmann Hillard. "Who follows the Brussels discourse? Only the elite".
The question is whether a court ruling against her would change anything. Since the Court of Justice of the European Union, which will rule on the case, cannot compel her to hand over the messages, it could be humiliating at a politically delicate moment.
Even more potentially explosive is the current investigation by the office of the European Public Prosecutor on the procurement of vaccines in the EU. It is not clear whether Von der Leyen is the target of prosecutors, but it cannot be ruled out.
In the meantime, the lawsuits keep coming, as it becomes clear that the EU wasted billions of euros in the megadeal with Pfizer. Politika's analysis found that at least 215 million doses of vaccines purchased during the pandemic were wasted, and it is estimated that this cost taxpayers four billion euros.
Anger is growing in some countries. Poland and Hungary have refused certain vaccine shipments, claiming they have enough, prompting a legal dispute with Pfizer. In Romania, prosecutors opened an investigation against former Prime Minister Florin Kitu over discarded vaccines. They claim that the former head of government and his ministers are responsible for damages of over one billion euros related to the unused doses. Supporters of the former prime minister claim that the investigation is politically motivated.
If any of this worries Von der Leyen, she doesn't show it, and she doesn't intend to show, regardless of what the news is, that she's sweating because of it.
Whatever happens, whatever the verdict is, whatever the outcome of various investigations, the most likely scenario remains the same: Von der Leyen gets a second term with a casual smile.
Prepared by: N. Bogetić
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