What will life look like in 2040 if the European climate plan succeeds?

The year is 2040 and the European Union's green revolution is 90 percent complete. Europeans will ride bicycles, eat less meat and breathe easier, writes Politico in its vision of the future of life on the continent if the EU's climate plan succeeds.

Climate neutrality is within reach in 2040 as the bloc managed to reduce its collective greenhouse gas emissions to a tenth of 1990 levels, in line with the target proposed 16 years ago.

The result is a transformed continent, but getting there was not easy - ruling coalitions fell apart, companies closed, and farmers repeatedly besieged Brussels.

Europeans are now cycling more and eating less meat. Rural areas have fewer cows grazing and more overhead power lines.

There are no coal mines left in the EU, but jobs in green manufacturing are booming.

In short, a reduction of 90 percent by 2040 requires that Europe transform its economy, change its landscapes and lifestyle, Hina agency reports.

Global warming in the meantime has also caused changes. Southern EU countries limit outdoor work in summer. The ski tourism industry in the Alps is collapsing. From air-conditioned Berliamont, the European Commission is deploying Europe's ever-growing firefighting fleet to fight raging fires and mediate between regions fighting over water rights.

However, it is impossible to say whether this imagined future will ever happen as climate policies are met with resistance across the continent. Europe's farmers are revolting, and the upcoming elections are tempting lawmakers to promise their voters an effortless green transition.

However, looking at the EU's own assessment and recent reports from the European Scientific Advisory Committee on Climate Change, one thing is clear - if Europe is to achieve climate neutrality, life-changing changes are inevitable.

There is no simple path to climate neutrality.

So, assuming everything goes according to plan, which is highly questionable, here's what life in Europe might look like in 16 years.

Agricultural revolution

What's in your fridge in 2040? Probably less animal products.

That change in diet has helped Europe significantly reduce emissions. Domestic animals are still the EU's main source of methane, the second biggest driver of global warming, but lower demand for meat and dairy products has led to a reduction in livestock numbers and emissions.

Brussels and member state governments have implemented various measures to encourage people to eat more plant-based foods.

Take a closer look at the contents of your fridge: there may be a carbon intensity declaration. Maybe you bought those artificial meat sausages because they were cheaper than the real thing, since linking carbon emissions to food has driven up meat prices.

For farmers, the transition meant an agricultural revolution. There are fewer and fewer livestock farms.

In 2023, EU scientific advisors predicted a drop in demand of up to 50 percent. Farmers are also being forced to sharply reduce their use of nitrogen-based fertilizers, which requires changing farming practices to keep yields stable.

Farmers' sources of income also had to change dramatically. In doing so, many have taken advantage of the new carbon removal market to make money by storing CO2 on their land, especially in areas previously used for grazing or growing crops for animal feed.

However, as Europe phases out the use of fossil fuels, agriculture is now the largest source of emissions on the continent.

If the EU wants to achieve climate neutrality in 2050, the sector will have to reduce its pollution even more.

Less consumption

Leave the kitchen and look around the rest of your apartment.

If you heated your home with oil or gas radiators in 2020, you probably installed an electric heat pump since then.

The further south you live, the more likely it is that your home now has air conditioning as temperatures regularly exceed 40 degrees Celsius.

But despite using alternating current, buildings across the EU are using less energy thanks to electrification and better insulation.

It also probably means lower electricity bills. Using any fossil fuel is expensive as carbon taxes have increased and subsidies have been removed.

Europeans have reduced their overall spending.

This could mean they are consciously buying less new stuff, but much of the reduction is hidden in the food chain as manufacturers increasingly use recycled materials.

Some governments have introduced measures to stop the increase in living space for the average European as more people live alone, increasing demand for energy and materials.

The new measures range from personal CO2 allowances to schemes and tax incentives to help couples downsize after their children have moved out.

There is another trend that is likely to push people into smaller or more crowded accommodations. Given renovation costs, "the relative cost of housing is likely to be higher" by 2040, the Commission's assessment predicted.

Outside the house

Now go outside the space where they live. Most of the cars are electric, 60 percent of the cars on the streets have a zero emission rate.

To achieve this, the EU phased out sales of new fossil fuel cars in 2035, despite strong opposition from conservatives.

Electric cars aren't the only change. There has been an increase in public transport and short-term 'renting', which is also linked to the drive to spend less.

Instead of owning their own bikes, more and more people are relying on shared city bikes.

In addition, urban planners are working to encourage more people to walk and bike by designing cities that allow for shorter distances to schools and supermarkets.

When it comes to long-distance travel, more people use trains when possible.

Taxation and coal prices have made flights more expensive, so there are fewer and fewer people going on weekend trips to Ibiza or business trips to conferences across Europe.

Goodbye fossil fuels

The EU has almost decarbonized its entire electricity system by 2040.

The Union now works mainly on renewable energy sources, with the support of nuclear power. The transport sector, with its constant demand for oil, is now the largest consumer of fossil fuels.

The energy transition has become increasingly visible in recent years. Look around and you'll notice a landscape dotted with more transmission towers and more cables criss-crossing overhead.

You will also see more wind turbines and solar panels.

Coal-fired power was phased out, despite opposition from Poland.

There are no more coal-related jobs. "Employment in the fossil fuel industry is expected to be at a negligible level" as estimated by the EC in 2024.

The labor market has changed as Europe exits carbon and sectors such as internal combustion engine manufacturing, while jobs are growing in building renovation, clean technology manufacturing and resource management. Because of this, hundreds of thousands of Europeans retrained, especially men, because jobs are disappearing in sectors where they are more employed than women.

Industrial emissions fell by 85 percent between 2015 and 2040. Some companies had to change their entire production processes.

Others neutralize their remaining emissions with carbon capture technology, which has become an industry in its own right, capturing CO2 before it enters the atmosphere.

It's easier to breathe

Emissions cuts in the EU are helping to slow climate change, but the planet continues to warm.

The summers are hotter, the winters are milder, and the weather conditions are more and more often extreme, which is why they claim lives every year and cause billions in damage.

But in 2040, Europeans enjoy one tangible benefit from their efforts to decarbonize and electrify - they breathe easier.

As coal plants close and diesel cars are taken off the streets, premature deaths from air pollution have fallen dramatically — from about 466.000 a year in 2015 to less than 200.000 in 2040.

There are other benefits: switching to a plant-based diet and more active modes of transport, such as cycling or walking, have also improved the health of the average European.

With less demand for oil and gas, the continent's fossil fuel import bills have more than halved since 2020, freeing up hundreds of billions that can be spent on smoothing the green transition.

By now, the world has probably crossed the temperature threshold of 1,5 degrees Celsius.

However, every bit of warming that the EU's climate efforts help prevent will save lives and reduce the impact on water, nature, food systems and the wider economy.

Yet in 2024, the scale of change required looks like a recipe for social unrest.

Last week, farmers lit a fire outside the European Parliament, and the EU still hasn't even tried to curb its methane pollution...