The German armed forces are crazy. The leak of a 38-minute conversation between the head of the Luftwaffe and senior German officers about sending Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine indicates a weakening of NATO's will not to escalate the current war. The conversation, which allegedly took place on an unencrypted platform, is as secretive as a teenage group chat. This gave impetus to Vladimir Putin's claims that this is a war of the West against Russia, and that Ukraine is only a mediator.
The West's legitimate aim in Ukraine is to help it prevent Putin's attempt to overthrow the elected government in Kiev. This was achieved within a few months, thanks to the Ukrainian army with the logistical support of the West. At no point did NATO risk falling into the well-worn trap of many previous European wars, the reckless escalation of a local conflict into a continental one.
However, as the conflict in Ukraine reached an expected stalemate, NATO's strategy lost all coherence. This is the moment when such wars are spiraling out of control. For two years, Western leaders have polished their macho image at home by visiting and encouraging President Volodymyr Zelensky to pursue absolute victory with their help.
That was Boris Johnson's favorite promise, as long as his constituents only paid for it, not died. French President Emmanuel Macron has even suggested sending troops. It was equally predictable that outright victory was never in the cards. This means that doubts will arise at some point. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, is now declaring that we must "stay the course", without saying exactly what that means.
German generals may want to escalate, but their chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is cautious. So does much of American public opinion, while Secretary of State Anthony Blinken only says that the West must make sure that the Russian war "continues to be a strategic failure."
Moscow can always play for the long haul in war. As horrible as it sounded at the time, a tacit agreement in the spring of 2022 to return to some version - any - of the pre-February 2022 border would make sense. Instead, Ukraine now looks more than ever like a kind of NATO mercenary for Western generals who want to boost military budgets and relive the Cold War games of their youth. Their taxpayers and Ukrainian youths are paying the price.
Western Europe has no conceivable interest in escalating the war in Ukraine through the exchange of long-range missiles. Although it should maintain logistical support for Ukrainian forces, it has no strategic interest in Kiev's desire to push Russia out of the majority Russophone areas of Crimea or Donbass. Her interest is to diligently seek an early solution and begin the reconstruction of Ukraine.
As for the "soft" Western sanctions against Russia, they have completely failed and at the same time disrupted the global trade economy. Some Western diplomats and organizations may like sanctions. They may have hurt someone - especially British energy consumers - but they did not devastate the Russian economy or influence Putin to change his mind. This year, Russia's growth rate is expected to surpass Britain's.
We should have learned something from the gross incompetence of Western military interventions over the past quarter of a century. Obviously that's not the case.
The text is taken from "The Guardian"
Translation: NB
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