"I'm working with all my strength, because this is the final for me. According to the law, this election will be my last." That sentence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan caused a storm in the West.
Agencies reported: "Erdogan is thinking about leaving." Or: "Erdogan announces withdrawal".
In Turkey, however, it was met with derision. "He's giving up again," many wrote on social media, reminding them how many times Erdogan has already announced his departure: two, three or more...
According to Dr. Haki Taš, a political scientist from the German Institute for Global Studies (GIGA), people are rightly skeptical, because they have already heard similar announcements by Erdogan several times.
"He spoke about his last election in 2009. Then in 2012, he said that he would run for the party leadership for the last time. And in 2023, he promised that he would ask for voter support for the last time and then hand over the baton to the younger generation," Taš reminds. And now again the same statements that the upcoming local elections will be his last.
At the same time, after each election, Erdogan continued to implement his program and at the same time expanded his powers. Today it is more powerful than ever. He is the first head of state who is also the head of the government. In addition, he is also the president of his party.
That is why Tash believes that Erdogan's statement is more of a tactical move. He uses the emotions of his own voters and once again asks for their trust in order to mobilize them, says the expert of the German institute.
In power for 22 years
Erdogan, an Islamic-conservative politician, has been in power for 22 years - first as prime minister, and since 2014 as president. Nevertheless, the local elections held on March 31 are very important to him. In the last ten years, several referendums, parliamentary, local and presidential elections have been held in Turkey. Politics, society and the economy are constantly in election campaign mode.
After the local elections at the end of March, the situation should calm down. If early parliamentary or presidential elections are not called, Erdogan will rule for the next four years. Empowered by the victory in the local elections, he wants to expand his power even more and possibly change the constitution. And he is also thinking about his successor. For that, he especially needs economically strong metropolises - Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Antalya. They account for almost half of the country's economic production.
First of all, it is about the 17-million-strong metropolis of Istanbul. Polls predict a fight for every vote. Since 2019, the city has been in the hands of the largest opposition, the Kemalist Republican People's Party (CHP). Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu wants to be re-elected. The 52-year-old is known throughout Turkey and so far his election campaign is running successfully.
His opponent, Murat Kurum from Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), has so far shown himself to be a pale figure in the campaign. Although he was the Minister of Urban Planning and Environmental Protection for five years, he remained relatively unknown. Since the introduction of the presidential system, citizens do not even know the names of government members, because only Erdogan is always in the foreground.
Turgut Altinok, Erdogan's candidate in the capital Ankara, is not successful in the campaign either. Despite the harsh nationalist-religious slogans, he did not collect many points. Polls show that incumbent mayor Mansur Javas from the opposition CHP is leading closely.
That's why Erdogan once again felt that he had to get involved in the campaign himself. For days now, the 70-year-old has been going from one big pre-election rally to another, giving speeches and encouraging supporters. It's like his name is on the ballot.
Erdogan is aware of the role Istanbul plays in the politics of the whole of Turkey. And his career began in that city - Erdogan was mayor there from 1994 to 1998. Istanbul is economically strong and it is not for nothing that they say in Turkey:
"Whoever wins in Istanbul, wins in the country."
The metropolises where the vote will be held are an important source of income for Erdogan's survival in power. After the change of government in many cities in 2019, it came to light that the AKP had been employing party cadres in city administrations for years. Numerous large orders to party-loyal entrepreneurs also went from there. Privileges were also granted to nationalist and Islamist brotherhoods.
Haki Taš, an expert from the German institute GIGA, believes that a victory in the upcoming elections would raise the self-confidence of the ruling party. The government, he believes, will interpret every victory as support for them and will continue with an even tougher course.
Who could be Erdogan's successor?
Although many do not believe that Erdogan could really step down now, there has been a lot of talk about a successor lately. Erdogan recently turned 70 years old, and pictures and videos of him appearing listless and in poor health are appearing more and more often.
In that case, who will sit in Erdogan's chair? After the failure of his eldest son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, as finance minister, many assumed that he would prepare either his son Bilal Erdogan or his younger son-in-law, arms manufacturer Seljuk Bajraktar, as his successor.
Will potential candidates be able to continue to lead the party as successfully as Erdogan?
"Essentially, there is no longer a party that develops policy and mobilizes people," answers Haki Taš. Since the introduction of the presidential system, he says, there is only Erdogan.
Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu believes that a lot more could happen before the next presidential election. On his account on the Iks platform, he reminded Sojlu that 2028 is still a distant future. Until then, Erdogan could change his mind one more time or even try to change the constitution, he said.
The fact is that the AKP party is working to give Erdogan another mandate. He currently lacks just under 40 votes to amend the constitution or call early elections. It is also uncertain whether he can win over any of the opposition parties to his goals.
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