The weekend elections in Russia, as expected, did not bring drama in terms of outcome as Vladimir Putin ensured that he will remain in charge of the country until 2030, but what worries many analysts is what he might do during the next six years in power.
According to exit polls, Putin won about 88 percent of the votes in the elections, which is the most convincing result in post-Soviet history. In this way, Putin strengthened his grip on power, although thousands of his opponents staged a symbolic protest by appearing at the polling stations at noon as part of the action "at noon against Putin" called for by the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
If he pushes this mandate to the end, it means that he will rule Russia for 30 years, and that fact alone and the thorough suppression of opposition voices give Putin enormous and practically unrestrained power.
His position, according to the Associated Press, is additionally strengthened by the surprising resilience of the Russian economy despite extensive Western sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.
Its grip on vasti has also been strengthened by Moscow's gradual but consistent progress on the battlefield in Ukraine in recent months, declining support for military aid to Kiev from the US and other allies, and growing skepticism in some Western countries about more progressive social attitudes that remind to Putin's advocacy of "traditional values".
In short, Putin is entering a new term with few restrictions, and this could quickly manifest itself in the form of significant new moves.
"The Russian presidential election is not as important as what will follow. Putin often postponed unpopular moves until after the election," said Brian Rosenfeld, a Cornell University professor who studies post-communist politics.
Possible new mobilization
Probably the most unpopular move he would make at home is to order a second military mobilization for the war in Ukraine. After a partial mobilization ordered by the Kremlin in September 2022, tens of thousands of Russians left the country to avoid conscription, and even smaller protests broke out. "The mobilization shook Russian support for the war. A majority of Russians oppose the new mobilization, recent surveys have shown - which may not even reflect the true scale of opposition. It is difficult to find a single social group that supports mobilization," said Rosenfeld.
"The potential consequences that another mobilization could have on the domestic scene and on the front are what should be paid attention to after the elections," he pointed out.
On the other hand, however unpopular the new mobilization may be, it could appease the families of soldiers who were recruited 18 months ago.
Russian leaders are now talking about "consolidating the entire Russian society around its defense needs," Brian Michael Jenkins, a senior adviser at the RAND Corporation, told the AP.
"The precise meaning of this phrase is not entirely clear, but it indicates that the Russian leadership is aware that Putin's war will last, and therefore resources must be mobilized," he pointed out. "In other words, Russian society must be organized for constant war."
But Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, says Putin doesn't need mobilization in part because many Russians from poorer regions signed up for the war to get higher pay than they can earn at home.
In addition, Putin's apparent confidence that the war is turning in Russia's favor will influence him to continue to insist that the only way to end the conflict is for Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table, she said. "Which, in fact, means capitulation".
Historian and "Guardian" columnist Timothy Garton Ash points out that Putin not only believes that Ukraine belongs to Russia "whose destiny is to be a great, imperial power", but also, unlike Western governments, "his regime is both politically and economically committed to the continuation of the war ". Ash points out that 40 percent of Russia's budget goes to the military, intelligence services, disinformation and internal security. "It is a war economy that cannot easily return to the way it functions in peacetime conditions," writes the columnist of the British newspaper.
Putin may decide to test NATO
Now convinced that he will be more persistent than the West, Putin is trying to tie the future of Russia, including an elite and a society that seems to agree to his lifelong rule, to the fate of his long war in Ukraine.
“You are dealing with the person who started this war. He has already made a mistake of such proportions that he doesn't even want to admit it to himself," a former Russian official told The Guardian. "And that war must not be lost. It would be the end of the world for him."
On the other hand, although support for Ukraine is lagging behind in Washington, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski recently said that sending troops to support Kiev is at least a hypothetical possibility.
With those statements in mind, Putin may want to test NATO's resolve, according to AP.
Alexandra Vakru, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, believes that in the next few years, Russia will try to assess NATO's commitment to Article 5, the common guarantor for the defense of the alliance, according to which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. .
"I don't think that Putin thinks that he should be physically and militarily stronger than all other countries. All he needs is for them to be weaker and divided. Therefore, his question is, instead of thinking how to become stronger, what can I do to make everyone else weaker", she said.
"For something like that, it is necessary to create a situation in which you can test Article 5" and if the reaction is mild and uncertain "then you have shown that NATO is just a paper tiger", Vakru said.
She said Russia could conduct such a test without overt military action, adding: “Imagine for example what kind of cyber attack would pose a threat to attack?”.
Although not a member of NATO, Moldova is increasingly worried about becoming a Russian target. Since the invasion of Ukraine, neighboring Moldova has faced a crisis that has fueled fears in Chisinau that that country is also being targeted by Russia.
Congress in the Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria, where Russia has about 1500 soldiers as part of "peacekeeping forces", called on Moscow to provide them with diplomatic "protection" due to allegedly increasing pressure from Moldova.
That appeal potentially leaves "a lot of room for escalation," said Christian Kantir, a Moldovan professor of international relations at the University of Oakland. "I think that the congress and the resolution should be seen as a warning to Moldova that Russia could interfere more in Transnistria if Chisinau does not make concessions".
On the domestic front in Russia, more repressive measures can be expected in Putin's new mandate, although opposition supporters and independent media have already been intimidated or silenced.
It is certain that Putin will use his victory as proof of the huge support of the Russian public
Stanovaja believes that it is not Putin who is the initiator of repressive measures, but that he approves such actions designed by others, believing that this is what he wants.
"Many players are trying to survive and adapt, and compete against each other and often have conflicting interests," she told AP. "At the same time, they all try to protect their priorities and the stability of the regime".
The hopeless "Putin generation"
Russia banned the LGBTQ+ "movement" last year, declaring it extremist as part of what officials said was a fight for traditional values propagated by the Russian Orthodox Church in resistance to Western influence. Courts have also banned changing gender identity.
Ben Noble, associate professor of Russian politics at University College London, said he believes the LGTQ+ community could face additional repression in Putin's new term.
In the eyes of the Kremlin, they "could be considered imports from the decadent West," he said.
For young Russians, often referred to as the Putin generation, another decade of authoritarian rule by the only president they know is on the horizon.
"I am pessimistic about the long-term future of Russia," a Russian businessman told the Guardian. "I would advise young educated people to leave the country and build a future abroad. Russia will not run out of money... It will be just one stagnant, militaristic country”.
It is almost certain that Putin will use his victory as proof of the overwhelming support of the Russian public. The Kremlin will step up its war rhetoric, portraying Russia as a fortress under siege facing Western aggression. Repression against opposition activists and critics of the war will escalate, and the authorities will abandon any effort to cover up the relentless efforts to stamp out the slightest sign of dissent.
Moscow's foreign policies are likely to become more aggressive, as Moscow tries to deepen divisions in the West by spreading disinformation and propaganda, as well as courting conservative circles in the West by portraying Russia as a defender of traditional values.
In Moscow's relations with China, India and countries in the Global South, Putin's election victory will help solidify existing alliances by reinforcing the message of his firm control of Russian politics.
Another Russia
Nevertheless, Garton Ash in his column for "The Guardian" points out that the past few weeks have shown that there is still "another Russia" and points out that tens of thousands of Russians of all ages took risks to pay their respects to the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
"Other brave activists for a better Russia, such as Vladimir Kara Murza and Oleg Orlov, are in prison and we fear for their lives. "Outside Russia, Yulia Navalny continues her husband's fight with extraordinary courage and dignity, while clearly condemning Putin's war in Ukraine," writes Garton Ash.
He assesses that it is impossible to determine how much support that "other Russia" really has within the country.
"One experienced analyst who still lives in Russia told me that he thinks that about 20 percent of the population actively supports Putin, 20 percent actively opposes him, and 60 percent passively accept things as they are - without enthusiasm, but also without faith that change can come from below. But that's just a guess."
The West must not allow the elections to give Putin legitimacy
Despite the fact that Putin's victory was certain, the Kremlin spent a billion dollars on propaganda in the run-up to the election. Most of that budget was dedicated to promoting nationalism, unity and traditional values.
The question arises why a regime in the midst of a war, which according to estimates has cost Russia over 200 billion dollars so far, would feel the need to put so much effort into rigged elections.
Nataša Lindstad, a professor at the department of public administration at the University of Essex in a column for the portal "Konversayshn", states that Putin is trying to avoid any kind of perception of illegitimacy or a large protest after the death of Alexei Navalny.
"Research has shown that while elections can pose a certain risk to dictatorships, they can also help perpetuate autocracy. Regardless of any doubts about their validity, they are often presented in a way that helps the winner gain a certain degree of legitimacy - both at home and in the international community - and also helps the regime gather intelligence about its popularity," Lindstadova points out.
Vladimir Kara-Murza, a critic of the Kremlin, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison in April 2023 and sent to serve his sentence in a colony in Siberia, shares a similar view.
Last Sunday, he stated in a column published in the "Washington Post" that "many people wonder why dictatorships even bother holding "elections" when everyone knows they are rigged, meaningless rituals." "However, in the 21st century, the only widely accepted source of legitimacy for any government comes in the form of the ballot box - and even regimes that have no real legitimacy feel the need to create the appearance of legitimacy," said Kara Murza.
He, like the former political prisoner and director of the Yukos oil company Mikhail Khodorkovsky, called on the international community to declare the elections in Russia illegal and their winner an illegitimate president.
Citing the absence of opposition candidates, media censorship, large-scale repression, and Putin's manipulation of Russia's constitution to circumvent the two-consecutive presidential term limit, Kara Murza sees the world's democracies' denial of "recognition of Vladimir Putin as legitimate" as the only "logical and political" response. to the leader of Russia after May 7 - in the same way they refused to recognize the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela or Alexander Lukashenko from Belarus".
The White House announced last night that "the elections are clearly not even free and fair since Putin sent political opponents to prison and prevented others from running against him."
The German Foreign Ministry also announced on the X network that "pseudo-elections in Russia are neither free nor fair and the result will not surprise anyone." "Putin's rule is authoritarian, he relies on censorship, repression and violence. "Elections" in the occupied territories of Ukraine are null and void and represent another violation of international law.
See more:
Download the app and follow the news
FOLLOW US ON
