Macron, Soltz and Orban the biggest losers in the EP elections

Mainstream groups retained their majority in the European Parliament, but the European elections significantly weakened the governments in France and Germany

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Olaf Scholz, Photo: Reuters
Olaf Scholz, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

After three days of voting in the European Union, the mainstream groups, as expected, managed to keep the majority in the European Parliament, but the voters sent a strong message to the authorities at the national level, and the governments in France and Germany were weakened the most.

As polls predicted, the main pro-EU alliance of centre-right, centre-left, liberal and green parties retained, quite convincingly, its majority. The European National Conservatives and the far right made significant gains, winning just under a quarter of the total 720 seats - their best result to date.

Their success is most pronounced in France, where Emmanuel Macron's party experienced a humiliating defeat, winning 15 percent of the vote compared to 32 percent won by Marine Le Pen's National Rally party, which prompted the French president to risk and call early parliamentary elections.

macro
photo: REUTERS

In Germany, too, despite numerous scandals, including the cover-up of Nazism, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a higher percentage of the national vote (16%) than any of the three parties that make up Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition.

This is a worrying development in two countries that have traditionally been the driving force of the European Union, the British "Guardian" assesses. France faces the risk of a right-wing majority in parliament, while the German government is further weakened.

Brothers of Italy, led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, were also big winners, winning 28 percent of the vote.

George Meloni
photo: REUTERS

However, apart from those three large member states and Austria, where the Freedom Party, as predicted, finished in first place with 26 percent of the vote, the results of the extreme right were often below expectations.

Although Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre de Croix resigned as head of government after his Open Belgian Flemish Liberals and Democrats (VLD) party suffered heavy defeats in national and European elections, the far-right Vlaams Belang party failed in Belgium, winning less than 14 percent .

The right-wing Danish People's Party, with 6,4 percent of the vote, also won less than expected, as did the Finland Party (7,6 percent) and the Sweden Democrats (13 percent), both of which are either in or supporting right-wing governments.

In Poland, Law and Justice (PiS) was narrowly defeated by Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition. Spain's Vox failed to break 10%, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV), winners of the last national election in the Netherlands, finished three seats behind the Labor Alliance and the Green Left, and in Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban had his worst night in recent years year.

"First of all, these elections reflect the situation at the national level," Cass Muddy, an expert on populism and the radical right at the University of Georgia, told The Guardian. Therefore, he added, the consequences will be felt most in national capitals, primarily in Paris and Berlin.

Allies of French President Emmanuel Macron appeared in the media yesterday to defend his decision to call early elections after a heavy defeat by the National Assembly. While Macron's critics characterized this move as a dangerous risk that could bring the extreme right closer to power than ever, his associates present the move as De Gaulle's bet that the people of France will turn to the center in national elections, as opposed to European ones.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not react as dramatically as his French counterpart despite the poor result of his ruling coalition in the EP elections.

"The political systems in France and Germany are very different. At no time did the idea arise that new elections could be called in Germany or anything similar," said Scholz's spokesman Steffen Hebstreit at yesterday's press conference.

"Regular elections are scheduled for the fall. And that's what we plan to do."

According to preliminary data, Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party achieved their worst result in national or European elections in almost two decades. Preliminary results showed that Fidesz and its small allies from among the Christian Democrats won 11 seats in the European Parliament, which is a decrease compared to the previous 13 seats.

Viktor Orban
photo: REUTERS

The results showed that the center-right Tisa party, led by Peter Magyar, won second place with 30% of the vote, which is more than all other opposition parties combined, and a better result than all pre-election polls showed.

As for the European Parliament, the center-right European People's Party (EPP), which gained an additional ten deputies, the center-left Socialists and Democrats and liberals from the Renew Europe group, according to the first data in the EP, should together have over 400 deputies. If you add the Greens, who lost about a quarter of their seats but still have over 50, the European mainstream center should have about 455 MPs, which is a reduced but still relatively comfortable majority in the 720-member assembly.

Meanwhile, the entire hard right, which is divided into the National Conservatives (ECR) led by Đorđa Meloni, the far-right group Identity and Democracy (ID) and non-aligned parties including AfD and Orbán's Fides, can count on around 145 parliamentary seats.

If the extreme right formed a single grouping, it would be the second largest in the parliament, behind the traditionally dominant EPP. However, the rivalry and disagreements in the ranks of the extreme right make such a scenario unlikely.

Mujtaba Rahman of the consultancy Eurasia Group said: “Although they have made gains, divisions and disorganization among right-wing groups will limit their influence on the EU's political agenda in the next five-year term.

However, he points out that in areas where right-wing political positions have influence (and may coincide with EPP goals), "tactical centre-right alliances" can moderate or even stop EU initiatives. These are most likely certain discussions about migration and the green transition.

Nikolaj von Ondarza, from the German Institute for International Affairs, said that although the center survived, "European politics will become more polarized, politicized and populist." Although the far-right's success will not have much impact on the composition of the European Parliament, it may have an impact on EU politics, largely because EU power still rests in capitals.

Von der Leyen is counting on "old cooperation" for her second term

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who comes from the ranks of the EPP, will turn to the social democrats and liberals in Brussels, with whom she cooperated in the past, in order to form a majority after the European Parliament elections, she said yesterday in Berlin.

"During my election campaign, I worked hard to build a broad and effective majority in favor of a strong Europe. For this reason, we will now reach out to the large political groups with whom we cooperated well in the last mandate", said Von der Leyen at the conference of German CDU conservatives.

Ursula von der Lajen
photo: REUTERS

When asked whether, as she announced before the election, she would consider cooperation with parties more to the right, for example the right in Italy, von der Leyen said that her first focus is on larger political groups, not on national ones.

The outcome of the election suggests that von der Leyen has a good chance of remaining in office, but not certain. If she gets the support of national leaders, the parliament needs to approve her mandate. In 2019, she was elected by the votes of EPP, Socialists and Democrats and Renew Europe. In general, the same coalition can provide her with a majority again.

However, the portal "Politiko" points out that she should carefully consider the calculation since voting in the parliament is secret. When last time, five years ago, she asked for the support of the parliament, she could in theory count on the support of 440 deputies who belong to these groups of the center, but she received only 383 votes.

This time, those three groups have a little more than 400 deputies in the 720-seat parliament. That should be enough for her re-election if all MPs support her, which is not certain since some parties from the EPP group have announced that they will not support her.

Russians rejoice over the defeat of Soltz and Macron

Russian politicians rejoiced yesterday over the heavy defeats of the parties of Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, and the Kremlin announced that right-wing parties are on the rise in Europe.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the results partly reflect the "incompetence of politicians" supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia. “Time to retire. To the dustbin of history," Medvedev wrote on the X network.

Valentina Matviyenko, head of the upper house of the Russian parliament, said that Macron and Scholz "suffered a severe defeat by their parties, which once again confirms their defeat as national and European politicians."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed out that after the EU elections, the majority of the European Parliament will continue to be pro-EU and pro-Ukrainian, but that the rise of right-wing parties is clear.

"This dynamic is visible to the naked eye, and of course, despite the fact that the pro-Europeans will retain their leading positions, over time the right-wing parties will make further progress," he said. "We are carefully monitoring these processes".

Peskov said that Russia will carefully monitor the extraordinary elections in France "especially bearing in mind the extremely hostile and even aggressive attitude of the French leadership towards our country". Reuters reminds us that before the last French presidential elections in 2022, Macron accused his rival Marine Le Pen of being "dependent" on Russia and Putin, citing as evidence a loan her party took from a Czech-Russian bank.

Le Pen met Putin in the Kremlin in 2017, but has condemned the invasion since the start of the war in Ukraine and tried to tone down previous comments expressing admiration for the Russian leader.

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