The French capital was rocked by a political bombshell on Monday. "It's a bit strange," a passer-by in central Paris, a man named Jean-Paul, told DW. "It was very surprising that Macron decided to dissolve the parliament. I don't know what to think."
Jean-Paul is not the only one who is confused. By dissolving the French parliament and calling snap parliamentary elections in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7, longtime President Emmanuel Macron surprised the nation, including many in his own party.
In the European Parliament elections just held, the far-right National Rally (RN) party blew away Macron's pro-European liberals and drove him even further up the wall. The anti-immigration, Eurosceptic party won more than 30 percent of the vote, and Macron's only 15 percent.
"The extreme right is misery for the French and the degradation of our country. So, at the end of today, I can't act as if nothing happened," Macron said, highlighting himself as the one returning the choice to the people.
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For Jean-Paul, snap elections could actually be a good thing. "It would be very difficult for him to have a good government. Well, let's clear things up right now, and we'll see.''
"If the French decide to go to the extreme right... ok, that's a choice too," he said. "And if they want to continue on the middle path - it's up to the French to decide."
Macron's position as president is not directly under attack due to the announced elections. He defeated Marine Lepen in 2022, securing his second and final five-year term.
On Monday, Macron's party began appealing to other centrist forces to unite against the RN.
But if the RN wins next month's election, Macron, who took office in 2017, could be forced to appoint RN leader Jordan Bardela as his fifth prime minister.
"Calculated risk or crazy gamble?"
Macron's shocking announcement immediately became the main story of the EU election results, while analysts struggled to understand what he was playing at.
Mujaba Rahman, an analyst at consultancy Eurasia Group, described it as "either a calculated risk or a crazy gamble".
Macron seems to be counting on higher turnout and more cautious voting in the national elections, Rahman wrote on the Ix platform on Monday. Voters often use European Parliament elections to punish unpopular domestic governments.
In any case, Macron, who faces 65 percent disapproval at home, would likely be forced into early parliamentary elections to try to push through the 2025 budget later this year, Rahman said.
Macron may have won a rare second term in the Champs-Élysées, but he has been presiding over a minority government since 2022, struggling to push his agenda through parliament, sometimes forcing things and using constitutional instruments. Which made him unpopular.
Pavel Zerka from the European Council for Foreign Affairs told DW that Macron's decision must be seen through that prism. Macron risks living the last three years of his presidential mandate "in the shadow of that result, the obvious defeat by Marine Le Pen," says Zerka.
He would have to live with the fact that she "constantly invites him to call new elections and tries to delegitimize his cabinet," Zerka emphasized.
The French president, known for his confidence, grand visions and flamboyant speeches, seems to prefer going on the offensive to win back French hearts and minds.
"Macron believes he can go to the polls, facing France with a clear choice between a pro-EU, pro-Ukrainian and centrist status quo, versus the existential risk of a far-right government that remains deeply anti-European and has a past of worshiping and supporting Putin," says analyst Mujtaba Rahman. .
Inspiration from Spain?
The French president may be imitating Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who put his career on the line last year in snap elections – which ended up going well for him.
But, Pavel Zerka points out: if Macron's plan fails, the winners will of course be Le Pen and her 28-year-old successor Bardel, who are currently in a very strong position.
"We cannot rule out a scenario in which, after the elections in June, her influence on French politics will increase very quickly, in case she becomes part of the next government," Zerka points out.
Consequences for the European Union
The performance of Macron's party in the upcoming election has implications beyond France's borders. If RN triumphs, France could end up as the newest EU member with a hard-right party in government, after Italy and Sweden.
The results of these European elections dealt a heavy blow to the leaders in Paris and Berlin, the political tandem of the two most powerful nations of the European Union.
In recent years, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have worked together to push their European agenda of strongly supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia and prioritizing climate policy.
With the governments of Germany and France on shaky ground, both politicians appear less powerful ahead of the battle for the EU's top jobs that follows the European Parliament elections.
Meanwhile, concerns in Paris are more local in nature. Emanuela, who we also stopped on the street, told DW that she was angry with Macron for his risky game. "I'm not sure he can win. I don't really understand why he did it, because the way I see things, it's a way for the far right to get into government. I think it's a real gamble, you never know how things can turn out."
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