In the new institutional cycle of the European Union, after the European elections, Ursula von der Leyen and Roberta Mecola could once again be the presidents of the European Commission (EC) and the European Parliament (EP), the Portuguese Antonio Košta may be the head of the European Council, and the Estonian Kaja Kalas is the new head of diplomacy, writes "Politiko".
The trading of the top positions was expected to last for months. However, although nothing is completely certain yet, EU leaders are now expected to sign off on the draft agreement at an informal summit on Monday (June 17), several European officials and diplomats told the Brussels portal on condition of anonymity.
"Knock on wood, but this time things can go relatively quickly," said one EU official, adding that a formal deal is likely to come at a European Council summit later this month (June 27-28).
Another reason to be optimistic about the timeline is that French President Emmanuel Macron will have little room for his usual tricks as a major disruptor.
With France's liberals and Macron, one of the main brokers in leadership talks, suffering heavy defeats from the far-right in EU elections, his negotiating power in Brussels has weakened. His attention is now focused on the extraordinary elections he called in France, and not on the functions in Brussels, "Politico" points out.
European officials and diplomats have warned that Europe, faced with Russian aggression against Ukraine and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, cannot afford to "bargain" in Brussels and sacrifice stability.
When it comes to Ursula von der Leyen, she will almost certainly get a second mandate because her group, the European People's Party, remained the biggest political force after the European elections of 6-9. June.
"Leaders cannot bypass it, not even those who want to," another EU official said. "She is their main candidate, they are the biggest party. She will be the first mover".
The Socialists, the second-strongest group in the European Parliament and a key part of the current center coalition, are aiming for the top position in the European Council, with Antonio Košta the favorite to replace Charles Michel.
However, Košta's candidacy could be complicated by his legal problems. Namely, he stepped down as Prime Minister of Portugal in November after prosecutors identified him as a suspect in an extensive investigation into influence peddling. The indictment against Košta was not brought, but the prosecutors did not give up the investigation either.
Košta, at his request, answered the prosecutor's questions last month and again claimed his innocence.
"Politiko" states that in numerous European capitals, the legal case against Košta is not considered an obstacle for his transfer to Brussels. Košta has a good relationship with von der Leyen and is generally liked by European leaders.
And, as one French official said, Macron likes the former Portuguese prime minister, who speaks French and likes to have intellectual discussions with him.
However, his legal problems could be pointed out by the Nordic countries who want to push the candidacy of Danish Prime Minister Meta Frederiksen, also from the ranks of the Socialists, whose name has also been mentioned in Brussels in recent months.
Several EU officials said that at the moment the most uncertain position is the bloc's head of diplomacy.
Estonian Prime Minister Kalas is aiming for that position, and as a woman from Eastern Europe, a liberal and a national leader, she would be an almost ideal choice for the liberals as they choose the successor to Josep Borrell, writes "Politico".
Ahead of the European elections, EU countries with little experience of Russian aggression were skeptical of her strong anti-Kremlin stance. Some Western leaders feared that she might focus exclusively on Russia and not pay enough attention to other regions, especially the Middle East and Africa. However, as Politiko points out, that opposition has subsided because Kalas would perfectly fit the current puzzle of jobs, geographically, politically and diplomatically.
The easiest agreement regarding the nominations is that the current president of the EP, Roberta Mecola, from the ranks of the populists, is granted another two-and-a-half-year mandate. However, Parliament itself will have the final say on this decision, not EU leaders.
"Politico" writes that European leaders will negotiate with von der Leyen in the following days, at an informal dinner and summit, offering her support in exchange for key portfolios in the next EC.
Even if the European Council reaches a quick agreement on the puzzle of leadership positions, there remains a hurdle in the European Parliament, which could vote on a second five-year term for von der Leyen as early as July 18.
"There's always a surprise in leadership talks," said one EU diplomat.
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