Regardless of the good results achieved by those parties belonging to the extreme right in the European elections, their growth was not enough for them to substantially influence the policies of the European Parliament (EP) in the future convocation.
The right-wing parties did not reach third place on the list of winners.
After the June 6-9 election, the Liberals remained in that position, although the drop they recorded compared to the vote five years ago saw them as moral losers.
The centre-right and left-of-center parties, the European People's Party and the Social Democrats, scored solid results, beating all polls that they would suffer losses, although they were expected to hold on to first and second place with much weaker results.
These three political groups (Social Democrats and Liberals) belong to the so-called pro-European bloc. Together, they will have more than 400 European deputies, in a convocation numbering 720 deputies of the European Parliament.
In this sense, it can be confirmed that the European Parliament will continue with pro-European policies and policies supporting the aspirations of the countries of the Western Balkans to get closer to European structures.
Is expansion at risk?
Žiga Faktor, an expert at the Institute for European Politics (EUROPEUM), believes that, despite the gains of right-wing and far-right parties, it is difficult to imagine that the EU would dramatically change its views on the enlargement process.
"It is true that members of the European Parliament as representatives of EP delegations or rapporteurs on certain countries of the Western Balkans are very important for EU and regional relations. In this regard, we will most likely see the continuation of the approach outlined by the previous convocation of the European Parliament, as it is expected that a large coalition of European populists, social democrats and liberals to remain in power. We can expect a further focus on a merit-based process, strongly focused on aspects of democratization and the rule of law, or alignment with the EU's common foreign policy," Faktor told Radio Free Europe (RSE ).
What's coming up?
Pavel Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) acknowledges that the shift to the right in terms of votes will affect EU policies related to climate change, migration, enlargement and the rule of law.
In a statement to the media, Zerka warns that right-wing parties are already part of the national governments in eight of the 27 EU countries (they lead the governments in Hungary and Italy, as part of the ruling coalition in the Netherlands, Finland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Croatia, and in Sweden they provide parliamentary support to the government ).
He points out that the result from Austria - where the Freedom Party won the most votes - could also herald the participation of the far right in the country's next government, after national elections later this year.
"All this affects the leadership and priorities of the EU", Zerka believes.
It also underlines that the most interesting thing to watch in the coming weeks is the effect these elections could have on major EU decisions – including not only the composition of the next EU leadership, but also enlargement, with a focus on the start of membership talks between the EU and Ukraine.
The next summit of EU leaders will be held on June 17. Another gathering of leaders is scheduled for June 28 and 29. These two meetings will be devoted to finding names for the heads of key EU institutions; of the European Commission, the European Council and the EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy.
Those leaders who were strong a week ago will also appear at both meetings: Emmanuel Macron from France and Olaf Scholz from Germany.
Both parties experienced serious losses in the European elections.
Macron's party received twice less votes than the far-right party Marine Le Pen, which caused an earthquake in the country and the dissolution of the assembly, as well as the calling of early parliamentary elections.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats lost to the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which took second place, leaving Scholz's party in a weak third position.
The "star" of the election, the Italian Prime Minister Đorđa Meloni, will also be there. After two years at the head of the Italian government, her Fratelli d'Italia party is firmly in first place with almost 30 percent of the vote.
Nevertheless, although she belongs to the ultra-right bloc, Meloni did not turn her back on key EU principles in the previous two years and firmly supported Ukraine in the war against Russia.
"As far as international issues are concerned, we must expect continuity from Meloni's government. The pro-Ukrainian position will not abate," believes Arturo Varveli, from the Rome headquarters of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
What if the right continues to grow?
Although far-right parties did not show such good results in the June elections, the trend of support for these forces at the national level is worrying.
This will certainly affect the European Council, which consists of the heads of state and government of the EU member states. The European Council is the highest political body of the European Union, where decisions are made by consensus.
Far-right parties are generally Eurosceptic.
As the number of Eurosceptic leaders and parties increases at the national level, the positions that member states take within the European Council may change.
Judging by the election results, not only in the European elections but also in the votes at the national level, voters in the European continent do not seem to share the opinion of the leaders so far when it comes to enlargement.
In Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Italy and Croatia, the extreme right is part of the ruling coalitions.
In Austria, where national elections will be held in September, judging by the polls, the far right is leading.
In Portugal and Slovakia, the far right significantly increased its share of the vote in recent national elections.
According to various polls conducted in all member states, public support for Ukraine's entry into the EU is lowest in Hungary, Slovakia, France and Austria – all countries where far-right parties have a strong influence.
The parties that received the most votes in the Netherlands, Austria, France or Germany are generally skeptical of further EU enlargement.
These parties achieved significant success in the European elections, and have or could receive significant support in their national parliamentary elections that will follow.
The campaign of these parties mainly focuses on migration policy or climate change.
In this sense, EU enlargement may not be at the top of the campaign's priority list, but the increase in votes for these parties may also result in a changed course in the European Council, where European leaders have a key say in key processes, including enlargement.
Although he believes that the European perspective for countries aspiring to join is not in question, Žiga Faktor warns that there is a serious danger that the current political atmosphere in which right-wing parties are growing will influence the decisions of the European Council, the functioning of which requires consent.
"Looking at the process from a long-term perspective, the stronger the far right is at the national level, the more their voice will have an impact on society. And it cannot be ruled out that these voices are trying to argue against enlargement due to socioeconomic impacts or other, possibly bilateral, issues ", says Faktor in a statement to (RSE).
"In a situation where national parliaments, or sometimes even the citizens themselves, would vote on the future membership of the countries of the Western Balkans, the support of the EU citizens is crucial for the successful closure of the process, and here I would really be careful how the discussions will be shaped at the national level, so that the enlargement it doesn't get the same toxicity as migration or the European Green Deal," says Faktor.
Bilčik and Von Kramon leave, Picula stays
The new convocation of the European Parliament is constituted on July 16.
Immediately after the end of the electoral process, the parties that received votes work on the formation of political groups. In order to form a political group, it should have at least 23 members from at least 7 member states.
The first task of the new EP convocation is to confirm the head of the European Commission (EC) after the EU leaders agree on the name. Later in the autumn, the European Parliament examines and approves the candidates for European Commissioners. The commissioner's proposal goes in principle: one state - one commissioner.
At the end, the EP votes again on the entire EC collegium, including the president, the vice-presidents of the EC, the head of European diplomacy and the European commissioners.
Also during the fall, rapporteurs will be appointed for all countries in the process of accession, including the countries of the Western Balkans. During their mandate, they work once a year on a report on the country they are responsible for. The report in the form of a Resolution is voted on at the plenary session.
The rapporteurs for Serbia and Kosovo, Vladimir Bilčik and Viola von Kramon, will certainly not be in their positions again. Bilčik was not even a candidate for the European Parliament, and Von Kramon did not manage to get another mandate.
The previous rapporteur for Montenegro, Tonino Picula, was re-elected as a European Member of Parliament.
Effects of the war in Ukraine
Although the Western Balkans have been part of the enlargement process for almost two decades, the process of expanding the European family became the main foreign policy priority of the EU, only after the Russian aggression against Ukraine, from February 2022.
Until then, the slowness in solving many issues showed the level of readiness of European leaders to encourage integration processes.
One example is the situation with North Macedonia, which in long-term political processes made many compromises (including changing its name) in order to start the process of accession negotiations.
In the year of the start of the war in Ukraine, the European Council approved the opening of accession negotiations, but North Macedonia is still waiting for the opening of the first chapter as of 2018.
Another example is Kosovo, which has been waiting for visa liberalization for years, although the country has met all the conditions and since 2018 has had a recommendation from the European Commission to allow it a visa-free regime.
After several years of gathering dust in the drawers of European capitals, this file was pulled out only after the start of the war in Ukraine, so that free travel for Kosovo citizens was made possible only in January of this year.
The so-called "enlargement fatigue", which was a regular theme until February 2022, due to increased security risks both in the Western Balkans and especially in the countries of the Eastern Partnership (except Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) simply disappeared.
In less than two years, Brussels has done more to the countries of the Western Balkans than it did in the entire past decade: Albania and North Macedonia received the green light to open accession negotiations in 2022 (the opening is pending), Bosnia and Herzegovina despite deep divisions and questionable functionality, received candidate status in the same year, and in the following year, in 2023, a confirmation that, "when it fulfills the conditions" that mostly concern the strength of institutions in the country, it will open accession negotiations with Brussels. Visas were abolished in Kosovo on the first day of 2024.
Kyiv and Chisinau are waiting for the opening of accession negotiations, ideally during June this year.
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